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Re: September 2019 - Labor Day Weekend/Tracking Hurricane Dorian
Posted: Thu Aug 29, 2019 9:53 am
by Cromagnum
Way too early to make a call on recurve back to sea potential. The GFS is underdoing the ridging to expose an early weakness while other models like the EURO and ICON see a stronger ridge. Still gonna be a battle for a couple more days sadly.
Re: September 2019 - Labor Day Weekend/Tracking Hurricane Dorian
Posted: Thu Aug 29, 2019 10:56 am
by brooksgarner
This hurricane reminds me of the 2004 season over on the east coast of FL. Vero got slammed by Frances and Jeanne! Watching from Denver ...
Re: September 2019 - Labor Day Weekend/Tracking Hurricane Dorian
Posted: Thu Aug 29, 2019 3:30 pm
by Scott747
Overall the model runs have started zeroing in on a lessening threat to the ngom the last 24 hrs.
There were a few hints though to not fully take the ngom out of play. Operational 12z Ukie takes Dorian across fla and to the ne gulf along with the HWRF and a small cluster of the Euro ensembles.
Otherwise most all the globals and ensembles show the main threat away from the gulf.
Re: September 2019 - Labor Day Weekend/Tracking Hurricane Dorian
Posted: Thu Aug 29, 2019 5:14 pm
by cperk
A just saw a OCM on MSNBC and he indicated that they really don't know where Dorian will make landfall yet or if it will at all.The models are giving them fits 3 days out and that's a little scary.No watches or warnings have been issued yet nor have any evacuations.
Re: September 2019 - Labor Day Weekend/Tracking Hurricane Dorian
Posted: Thu Aug 29, 2019 5:40 pm
by srainhoutx
I really couldn't care less what media and WxTwitter/social media has to say about Dorian. These days there is always an agenda to push it seems. The older I get, the more I rely on my own intuition regarding sensible weather forecasts.
Re: September 2019 - Labor Day Weekend/Tracking Hurricane Dorian
Posted: Thu Aug 29, 2019 5:44 pm
by Scott747
Small trend to the w with the early suite of 18z runs.
Re: September 2019 - Labor Day Weekend/Tracking Hurricane Dorian
Posted: Thu Aug 29, 2019 5:50 pm
by Scott747
I hear ya about the media. Especially the national networks. I threw it on CNN yesterday curious how they were covering it and they had a panel with talking points which were focused on the impending impact on Puerto Rico by a major hurricane.
Problem was Dorian was already pulling away from the island after missing it to the e.
Re: September 2019 - Labor Day Weekend/Tracking Hurricane Dorian
Posted: Thu Aug 29, 2019 5:56 pm
by srainhoutx
One guy I do follow always provides important historical facts.
Philip Klotzbach
@philklotzbach
September continental US #hurricane landfall locations since 1851. 39 out of the 121 September continental US hurricane landfalls have been in Florida. #HurricaneDorian
Re: September 2019 - Labor Day Weekend/Tracking Hurricane Dorian
Posted: Thu Aug 29, 2019 6:15 pm
by Texaspirate11
All I gotta hear is "not texas" and I'm good. Although I love the tracking part.
Re: September 2019 - Labor Day Weekend/Tracking Hurricane Dorian
Posted: Thu Aug 29, 2019 6:53 pm
by Cpv17
Texaspirate11 wrote: ↑Thu Aug 29, 2019 6:15 pm
All I gotta hear is "not texas" and I'm good. Although I love the tracking part.
They are really fun track even though I lose out on sleep staying up late for the 0z runs lol it’s worth it.
Re: September 2019 - Labor Day Weekend/Tracking Hurricane Dorian
Posted: Thu Aug 29, 2019 7:15 pm
by Scott747
Still further shifts on the 18z runs.
The hurricane model HMON which is often referred to in the discos is taking Dorian across the Florida straits.
Re: September 2019 - Labor Day Weekend/Tracking Hurricane Dorian
Posted: Thu Aug 29, 2019 8:40 pm
by Cpv17
Scott747 wrote: ↑Thu Aug 29, 2019 7:15 pm
Still further shifts on the 18z runs.
The hurricane model HMON which is often referred to in the discos is taking Dorian across the Florida straits.
Florida Straits wouldn’t surprise me a bit.
Re: September 2019 - Labor Day Weekend/Tracking Hurricane Dorian
Posted: Thu Aug 29, 2019 8:46 pm
by Andrew
I think the current track looks pretty reasonable based on model data and the projected evolution of the ridge over the Western Atlantic. The far Northeast Gulf could be under threat but anything west of that I have trouble seeing right now. Also, keep an eye on the mid-level vorticity that will cross the southern half of the Gulf. More models are indicating some minor development could occur.
Re: September 2019 - Labor Day Weekend/Tracking Hurricane Dorian
Posted: Thu Aug 29, 2019 8:52 pm
by Rip76
Andrew wrote: ↑Thu Aug 29, 2019 8:46 pm
Also, keep an eye on the mid-level vorticity that will cross the southern half of the Gulf. More models are indicating some minor development could occur.
I’ve noticed this.
Re: September 2019 - Labor Day Weekend/Tracking Hurricane Dorian
Posted: Thu Aug 29, 2019 9:13 pm
by Kingwood36
Rip76 wrote: ↑Thu Aug 29, 2019 8:52 pm
Andrew wrote: ↑Thu Aug 29, 2019 8:46 pm
Also, keep an eye on the mid-level vorticity that will cross the southern half of the Gulf. More models are indicating some minor development could occur.
I’ve noticed this.
When would this be?
Re: September 2019 - Labor Day Weekend/Tracking Hurricane Dorian
Posted: Thu Aug 29, 2019 10:06 pm
by Rip76
Re: September 2019 - Labor Day Weekend/Tracking Hurricane Dorian
Posted: Thu Aug 29, 2019 10:10 pm
by Kingwood36
Looks to go in to lousiana whatever it is
Re: September 2019 - Labor Day Weekend/Tracking Hurricane Dorian
Posted: Thu Aug 29, 2019 11:10 pm
by DoctorMu
GFS. Euro, CMC have Dorian blowing through Mar-a-Lago:
[Write your own paper towel joke here]
Re: September 2019 - Labor Day Weekend/Tracking Hurricane Dorian
Posted: Thu Aug 29, 2019 11:13 pm
by Cpv17
Andrew wrote: ↑Thu Aug 29, 2019 8:46 pm
I think the current track looks pretty reasonable based on model data and the projected evolution of the ridge over the Western Atlantic. The far Northeast Gulf could be under threat but anything west of that I have trouble seeing right now. Also, keep an eye on the mid-level vorticity that will cross the southern half of the Gulf. More models are indicating some minor development could occur.
The Euro takes this into Mexico. I don’t think we’ll see much of anything in SETX from it.
Re: September 2019 - Labor Day Weekend/Tracking Hurricane Dorian
Posted: Thu Aug 29, 2019 11:25 pm
by Scott747
Whoa. The ridging on the 0z GFS...
