Re: September 2019 - Gulf Mess Rain Chances. Work Week Heavy Rainfall Threat
Posted: Mon Sep 16, 2019 7:37 pm
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Why do I get the feeling that this is going to be an overachiever? I’m not worried about it becoming very intense or anything but I think it does ramp up before coming ashore and it will bring a lot of problems with it. pic.twitter.com/3Ei2YxaRrW
-- Mark Sudduth (@hurricanetrack) September 16, 2019
frustrating, but glad they finally did http://hurricanecity.com/models/models. ... stinvest=1srainhoutx wrote: ↑Mon Sep 16, 2019 8:12 pm Interesting that the NHC waited so long on designating 98L. The ensembles have been extremely bullish on TC genesis the past couple of days.
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AL, 98, 2019091600, , BEST, 0, 271N, 920W, 15, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS024, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 024,
AL, 98, 2019091606, , BEST, 0, 271N, 927W, 15, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS024, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 024,
AL, 98, 2019091612, , BEST, 0, 271N, 935W, 15, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS024, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 024,
AL, 98, 2019091618, , BEST, 0, 272N, 943W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS024, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 024,
AL, 98, 2019091700, , BEST, 0, 273N, 950W, 20, 1010, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 024, SPAWNINVEST, al772019 to al982019,
There’s about a 50-75 mile shift west from the 18z to 0z NAM. That’s a pretty good shift west.TexasBreeze wrote: ↑Mon Sep 16, 2019 10:02 pm We're getting into the timeframe where big shifts in the modeling is less likely and it soon will be "now casting" time. With the low "invest" developing currently, the model runs of 20+ in can't be ignored.