Re: September 2019 - Gulf Mess Rain Chances/Tracking TS Humberto
Posted: Sun Sep 15, 2019 3:54 pm
As expected, the Weather Prediction Center has increased their Quantitative Precipitation Forecast through Day 5.
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September 2019 - Warm End of September
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Re: September 2019 - Gulf Mess Rain Chances/Tracking TS Humberto
Posted: Sun Sep 15, 2019 3:58 pm
A Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall has been introduced in the afternoon Updated Excessive Rainfall Outlook for Day 3 (Wednesday). I expect changes ahead in the sensible weather forecasts over the next couple of days.
Re: September 2019 - Gulf Mess Rain Chances/Tracking TS Humberto
Posted: Sun Sep 15, 2019 3:59 pm
WPC is holding off on the higher totals. Probably need to see a few more model runs before they issue a more aggressive forecast.
Re: September 2019 - Gulf Mess Rain Chances/Tracking TS Humberto
Posted: Sun Sep 15, 2019 4:01 pm
Yep, I think we will keep seeing a shift more towards Houston
Re: September 2019 - Gulf Mess Rain Chances/Tracking TS Humberto
Posted: Sun Sep 15, 2019 4:44 pm
Nice disco from HGX this afternoon regarding the potential and uncertainties. Probably wise to keep an eye on the weather this coming work week.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
356 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2019
.SHORT TERM [Monday Through Tuesday]...
Broad mid/upper level low off the La/Tx coasts will continue its
very slow trek toward the coastal Bend on Tue. Look for shra/tstms
to redevelop and expand in coverage offshore tonight...with some
bands gradually making their way to around, or slightly north, of
the I-10 corridor later Monday afternoon with daytime heating.
Precip should taper off Monday evening, then follow the same
pattern described above late Mon night & Tue. Difference will be
higher areal coverage further inland during the day Tue as
available moisture increases. This should be much needed and
welcome rainfall. Few, if any problems are anticipated, though one
can never rule out the typical very localized street flooding
associated with higher rain rates. 47
.LONG TERM [Tuesday Night Through Sunday]...
Though there is high confidence that there will be good chances of
precip Tuesday night thru Thursday across the region, but overall
confidence in the specific details is low. Guidance shows the
mid/upper low drifting to the north and into western parts of se
Tx during this time period. Closer to the surface, models also
show either a surface trof or weak surface low developing - also
moving into the area from the south. How organized, or unorganized,
this feature becomes will go a long way in determining the
potential for either continued steady welcome rainfall, or the
risk of a more prolonged heavy rainfall event associated with
training convective banding (in the case of a more organized
system). There is generally a split between models in regards to
its evolution. PW`s do increase to 2.2-2.5" which are close to
the upper end that`ve been recorded this time of year, so moisture
won`t be a problem. That being said, we will be closely watching
things, but for now there is somewhat concerning signal for a
potentially heavy rain and flash flood threat developing late Tue
night and Wed for areas generally along and south of I-10 and
west of I-45. We`ll see what future models have to say, but will
go ahead an start the mention of locally heavy rainfall wording
there for now.
Chances of precip will continue into Wednesday night & Thurs with
the trof/low and PW`s aoa 2" continuing a slow move north thru the
area. Rain chances taper down Friday and into the weekend. 47
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
356 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2019
.SHORT TERM [Monday Through Tuesday]...
Broad mid/upper level low off the La/Tx coasts will continue its
very slow trek toward the coastal Bend on Tue. Look for shra/tstms
to redevelop and expand in coverage offshore tonight...with some
bands gradually making their way to around, or slightly north, of
the I-10 corridor later Monday afternoon with daytime heating.
Precip should taper off Monday evening, then follow the same
pattern described above late Mon night & Tue. Difference will be
higher areal coverage further inland during the day Tue as
available moisture increases. This should be much needed and
welcome rainfall. Few, if any problems are anticipated, though one
can never rule out the typical very localized street flooding
associated with higher rain rates. 47
.LONG TERM [Tuesday Night Through Sunday]...
Though there is high confidence that there will be good chances of
precip Tuesday night thru Thursday across the region, but overall
confidence in the specific details is low. Guidance shows the
mid/upper low drifting to the north and into western parts of se
Tx during this time period. Closer to the surface, models also
show either a surface trof or weak surface low developing - also
moving into the area from the south. How organized, or unorganized,
this feature becomes will go a long way in determining the
potential for either continued steady welcome rainfall, or the
risk of a more prolonged heavy rainfall event associated with
training convective banding (in the case of a more organized
system). There is generally a split between models in regards to
its evolution. PW`s do increase to 2.2-2.5" which are close to
the upper end that`ve been recorded this time of year, so moisture
won`t be a problem. That being said, we will be closely watching
things, but for now there is somewhat concerning signal for a
potentially heavy rain and flash flood threat developing late Tue
night and Wed for areas generally along and south of I-10 and
west of I-45. We`ll see what future models have to say, but will
go ahead an start the mention of locally heavy rainfall wording
there for now.
Chances of precip will continue into Wednesday night & Thurs with
the trof/low and PW`s aoa 2" continuing a slow move north thru the
area. Rain chances taper down Friday and into the weekend. 47
Re: September 2019 - Gulf Mess Rain Chances/Tracking TS Humberto
Posted: Sun Sep 15, 2019 5:02 pm
srainhoutx wrote: ↑Sun Sep 15, 2019 2:17 pmCheck out the rainfall totals through Friday evening into the wee hours of next Saturday via the Euro. 25+ inches not too far from College Station.DoctorMu wrote: ↑Sun Sep 15, 2019 2:05 pm Tuesday looking better on ECMWF
https://i.imgur.com/KOJfZEY.png
Yeah, I added that onto the post. Had to use a 3rd party to get images to stick. Feast or Famine! Be careful what you wish for!
Re: September 2019 - Gulf Mess Rain Chances/Tracking TS Humberto
Posted: Sun Sep 15, 2019 5:04 pm
Re: September 2019 - Gulf Mess Rain Chances/Tracking TS Humberto
Posted: Sun Sep 15, 2019 5:28 pm
- If I run the sprinklers tonight, it would be a certain 25 inch deluge.
- If I don't run them, a complete bust.
- If I don't run them, a complete bust.
Re: September 2019 - Gulf Mess Rain Chances/Tracking TS Humberto
Posted: Sun Sep 15, 2019 5:34 pm
Re: September 2019 - Gulf Mess Rain Chances/Tracking TS Humberto
Posted: Sun Sep 15, 2019 5:48 pm
Channel 2 just showed 1-1.5 inches for Harris County, with a small portion getting around 2 inches, all through Friday. “Not big gully washers” but “beneficial rains” and “no tropical storm here.” Said mainly Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday for some heavier pockets and isolated heavy thunderstorms.
Re: September 2019 - Gulf Mess Rain Chances/Tracking TS Humberto
Posted: Sun Sep 15, 2019 5:51 pm
Id rather watch the weather channel then what channel 2 for weather lol
Re: September 2019 - Gulf Mess Rain Chances/Tracking TS Humberto
Posted: Sun Sep 15, 2019 5:52 pm
Re: September 2019 - Gulf Mess Rain Chances/Tracking TS Humberto
Posted: Sun Sep 15, 2019 5:57 pm
Re: September 2019 - Gulf Mess Rain Chances/Tracking TS Humberto
Posted: Sun Sep 15, 2019 6:37 pm
As to the other local Houston channels, here are their latest reports as delivered on air:
Channel 13: Rain chances to go up “slightly” as we start the week. Sending moisture into SE Texas, helping to keep rain chances on the increase Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, and into Thursday, with chances going down as we head into Friday. “Some pretty decent chances of rain this week.” Nothing really of special note other than to keep the umbrellas handy, with 1-3 inches of widespread amounts, with isolated amounts of 3-5 inches favoring our southwestern counties.
Channel 11: Not expecting anything tropical, but will bring some very heavy rain to the Texas Coast. Widespread heavy rain a possibility if not likely throughout Houston area, beneficial but may come all at once. Bullseye on wharton County with 5 inches. Will continue to waffle back and forth, but 1-3 inches is a pretty good possibility over the next 3-4 days. Map had metro Houston with half an inch through Tuesday at 10 pm, 1.4 inches by Thursday at 7:30 am, and 3.2 inches by Thursday at 3:30 pm.
Channel 13: Rain chances to go up “slightly” as we start the week. Sending moisture into SE Texas, helping to keep rain chances on the increase Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, and into Thursday, with chances going down as we head into Friday. “Some pretty decent chances of rain this week.” Nothing really of special note other than to keep the umbrellas handy, with 1-3 inches of widespread amounts, with isolated amounts of 3-5 inches favoring our southwestern counties.
Channel 11: Not expecting anything tropical, but will bring some very heavy rain to the Texas Coast. Widespread heavy rain a possibility if not likely throughout Houston area, beneficial but may come all at once. Bullseye on wharton County with 5 inches. Will continue to waffle back and forth, but 1-3 inches is a pretty good possibility over the next 3-4 days. Map had metro Houston with half an inch through Tuesday at 10 pm, 1.4 inches by Thursday at 7:30 am, and 3.2 inches by Thursday at 3:30 pm.
Re: September 2019 - Gulf Mess Rain Chances/Tracking TS Humberto
Posted: Sun Sep 15, 2019 6:42 pm
Just posted Channels 13 and 11 as well.Kingwood36 wrote: ↑Sun Sep 15, 2019 5:51 pm Id rather watch the weather channel then what channel 2 for weather lol
Re: September 2019 - Gulf Mess Rain Chances/Tracking TS Humberto
Posted: Sun Sep 15, 2019 7:59 pm
At this point that’s a fair assessment.txsnowmaker wrote: ↑Sun Sep 15, 2019 6:37 pm As to the other local Houston channels, here are their latest reports as delivered on air:
Channel 13: Rain chances to go up “slightly” as we start the week. Sending moisture into SE Texas, helping to keep rain chances on the increase Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, and into Thursday, with chances going down as we head into Friday. “Some pretty decent chances of rain this week.” Nothing really of special note other than to keep the umbrellas handy, with 1-3 inches of widespread amounts, with isolated amounts of 3-5 inches favoring our southwestern counties.
Channel 11: Not expecting anything tropical, but will bring some very heavy rain to the Texas Coast. Widespread heavy rain a possibility if not likely throughout Houston area, beneficial but may come all at once. Bullseye on wharton County with 5 inches. Will continue to waffle back and forth, but 1-3 inches is a pretty good possibility over the next 3-4 days. Map had metro Houston with half an inch through Tuesday at 10 pm, 1.4 inches by Thursday at 7:30 am, and 3.2 inches by Thursday at 3:30 pm.
Re: September 2019 - Gulf Mess Rain Chances/Tracking TS Humberto
Posted: Sun Sep 15, 2019 8:10 pm
Local KBTX ups the probability of rain to 60%
Re: September 2019 - Gulf Mess Rain Chances/Tracking TS Humberto
Posted: Sun Sep 15, 2019 8:38 pm
Re: September 2019 - Gulf Mess Rain Chances. Work Week Heavy Rainfall Threat
Posted: Sun Sep 15, 2019 9:17 pm
And Ok State. 
Re: September 2019 - Gulf Mess Rain Chances/Tracking TS Humberto
Posted: Sun Sep 15, 2019 9:21 pm
You misspelled, “Geaux Tigers.”MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Sun Sep 15, 2019 8:38 pmGive the tailgate spot a nice watering and bring the temps down so we can have lower temps and sun for Auburn!
