Re: September 2019 - Gulf Mess Rain Chances/Tracking TS Humberto
Posted: Sat Sep 14, 2019 11:19 am
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WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1115 AM EDT SAT 14 SEPTEMBER 2019
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 15/1100Z TO 16/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2019
TCPOD NUMBER.....19-109
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO
FLIGHT ONE - NOAA 42 FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 72
A. 15/2230Z A. 15/2330Z
B. NOAA2 0909A HUMBERTO B. AFXXX 1009A HUMBERTO
C. 15/2100Z C. 15/2115Z
D. 29.4N 78.0W D. 29.5N 78.0W
E. 15/2200Z TO 16/0300Z E. 15/2300Z TO 16/0230Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT F. SFC TO 15,000 FT
FLIGHT THREE - TEAL 73
A. 16/1130Z
B. AFXXX 1109A HUMBERTO
C. 16/0900Z
D. 30.0N 77.0W
E. 16/1100Z TO 16/1430Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. SUSPECT AREA (WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 74 FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 75
A. 15/2000Z A. 16/1130Z,1730Z
B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST B. AFXXX 0210A CYCLONE
C. 15/1830Z C. 16/0945Z
D. 25.0N 94.5W D. 26.0N 96.0W
E. 15/1930Z TO 15/2330Z E. 16/1100Z TO 16/1730Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
3. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
A. CONTINUE 12-HRLY FIXES INTO HUMBERTO WHILE SYSTEM
REMAINS A THREAT.
B. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES INTO SUSPECT AREA IN WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND IS A THREAT.
4. REMARK: THE MISSION TASKED ON TCPOD 19-108 INTO THE
SUSPECT AREA EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WAS
CANCELED BY NHC AT 14/0800Z.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
$$
WJM
I’ll pass on that model. Only has me getting two inches lol the flooding rain threat is there though. Some of the models are coming onboard with 5+ inches over a widespread area.stormlover wrote: ↑Sat Sep 14, 2019 11:19 am https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1412&fh=72
Icon model has 15 plus inches of rain
About 50% chance Wed and Thursday now in CLL. Highs in the upper 80s. Fingers crossed.jasons wrote: ↑Sat Sep 14, 2019 8:45 am Looks like your initial 40% was pretty spot-on
I just want rain (but not flooding). I’m only asking the weather gods the thread a needle for us lol
Stout band out in the Gulf this morning on our local radar. The NWS has increased our rain chances for next week, topping out at 60% on Wednesday.
Canadian brings the rain mostly west of Houston, from Victoria through CLL. Individual models, not surprisingly still struggling. However, GEFS and GEPS Ensembles are also wildly different. ICON as mentioned is a coastal deluge.
I wouldn’t get your hopes up.DoctorMu wrote: ↑Sat Sep 14, 2019 2:36 pmCanadian brings the rain mostly west of Houston, from Victoria through CLL. Individual models, not surprisingly still struggling. However, GEFS and GEPS Ensembles are also wildly different. ICON as mentioned is a coastal deluge.
It's a crapshoot currently, at the edge of the 5 day forecast. We'll see.
I think he summed it up perfectly. I've noticed the same thing over the years. Whenever it comes to SE Texas, it's always something...Either a sharp offshore coastal trough develops, thus bottling up all the moisture offshore...Or a short wave moving across the state just in the nick time of time to shunt all of the moisture to the east and southeast of the region into Louisiana or the Gulf...Or a tropical wave moving toward the area that wraps up into an organized system taking all of the moisture into Louisiana...Or a stout area of high pressure that builds in from the north and shunts all of the moisture into South Texas and Mexico...Pick one, I've seen all of these scenarios over the years.jasons wrote: ↑Sat Sep 14, 2019 4:22 pm Deep thoughts by Jack Handey:
Seems like when these systems impact Louisiana/MS/AL, there is still a lot of rain well north and east of the center. And when systems come in the Middle or Lower Texas coast, the moisture just hugs the center or stays just offshore. I don’t get it. It’s not like we have some physical barrier over SE Texas that would stop the rain, but it stops anyway.