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Re: September 2019 - Labor Day Weekend/Tracking TS Dorian
Posted: Wed Aug 28, 2019 12:33 pm
by sau27
Also for all the eastward tug the GFS has shown the 12Z ensemble swings back out over the gulf, making the 12z operational run more of an outlier.
We've got more swings than a kindergarten playground here.
Re: September 2019 - Labor Day Weekend/Tracking TS Dorian
Posted: Wed Aug 28, 2019 1:11 pm
by Rip76
Hurricane now.
Re: September 2019 - Labor Day Weekend/Tracking TS Dorian
Posted: Wed Aug 28, 2019 1:19 pm
by Kingwood36
Could this make it to texas?
Re: September 2019 - Labor Day Weekend/Tracking TS Dorian
Posted: Wed Aug 28, 2019 1:20 pm
by Kingwood36
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Re: September 2019 - Labor Day Weekend/Tracking TS Dorian
Posted: Wed Aug 28, 2019 1:21 pm
by Cpv17
Kingwood36 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 28, 2019 1:19 pm
Could this make it to texas?
Most likely not, but never say never when a system is so far out there. It’ll all depend on the placement and strength of the ridge.
Re: September 2019 - Labor Day Weekend/Tracking TS Dorian
Posted: Wed Aug 28, 2019 1:30 pm
by srainhoutx
Rip76 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 28, 2019 1:11 pmHurricane now.
And right on cue, climatology wise the average date for the 2nd North Atlantic Hurricane of the season is August 28th.
Re: September 2019 - Labor Day Weekend/Tracking Hurricane Dorian
Posted: Wed Aug 28, 2019 1:36 pm
by Cromagnum
Every run is getting more and more west. Starting to smell like Ike (hopefully not)
Re: September 2019 - Labor Day Weekend/Tracking Hurricane Dorian
Posted: Wed Aug 28, 2019 1:37 pm
by Kingwood36
Ridge looks stronger on the 12Z Euro than the 00Z
Re: September 2019 - Labor Day Weekend/Tracking Hurricane Dorian
Posted: Wed Aug 28, 2019 1:44 pm
by Cpv17
I said all along this will be a south Florida storm and then it’s anyones guess after that. Ukmet and ICON have had a good handle on this so far. I could even see Dorian going through the Straits.
Re: September 2019 - Labor Day Weekend/Tracking Hurricane Dorian
Posted: Wed Aug 28, 2019 1:47 pm
by Kingwood36
I could see this getting as close to lousiana
Re: September 2019 - Labor Day Weekend/Tracking Hurricane Dorian
Posted: Wed Aug 28, 2019 1:49 pm
by Cpv17
Kingwood36 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 28, 2019 1:47 pm
I could see this getting as close to lousiana
Louisiana, especially New Orleans seems likely right now.
Re: September 2019 - Labor Day Weekend/Tracking Hurricane Dorian
Posted: Wed Aug 28, 2019 1:54 pm
by Cromagnum
Cpv17 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 28, 2019 1:49 pm
Kingwood36 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 28, 2019 1:47 pm
I could see this getting as close to lousiana
Louisiana, especially New Orleans seems likely right now.
Depends if there is weakness in the ridge. The Euro has a huge and strong ridge firmly in place so it can only go West for now.
Re: September 2019 - Labor Day Weekend/Tracking Hurricane Dorian
Posted: Wed Aug 28, 2019 1:55 pm
by Kingwood36
Would it keep tracking west all the way to texas or is it to soon to know?
Re: September 2019 - Labor Day Weekend/Tracking Hurricane Dorian
Posted: Wed Aug 28, 2019 1:58 pm
by Cpv17
Kingwood36 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 28, 2019 1:55 pm
Would it keep tracking west all the way to texas or is it to soon to know?
Way too soon.
Re: September 2019 - Labor Day Weekend/Tracking Hurricane Dorian
Posted: Wed Aug 28, 2019 2:06 pm
by ccbluewater
Euro turning it towards MS/AL/Fl Panhandle. Some of the 12z runs have a very similar look to the track of Andrew & Katrina(not saying that's what Dorian will be..)
Re: September 2019 - Labor Day Weekend/Tracking Hurricane Dorian
Posted: Wed Aug 28, 2019 2:07 pm
by cperk
That 12z euro run has my attention that's one hell of a shift to the west.
Re: September 2019 - Labor Day Weekend/Tracking Hurricane Dorian
Posted: Wed Aug 28, 2019 2:12 pm
by sau27
One thing to keep in mind regarding this becoming an issue for Texas is that Texas is literally at the end of the line here. Everything would have to set up "perfectly" to get the storm to track this far west. Getting into September with troughs and fronts being a little more frequent this is an unlikely scenario. Not Impossible of course, but unlikely.
Re: September 2019 - Labor Day Weekend/Tracking Hurricane Dorian
Posted: Wed Aug 28, 2019 2:12 pm
by Kingwood36
cperk wrote: ↑Wed Aug 28, 2019 2:07 pm
That 12z euro run has my attention that's one hell of a shift to the west.
What does it show
Re: September 2019 - Labor Day Weekend/Tracking Hurricane Dorian
Posted: Wed Aug 28, 2019 2:18 pm
by cperk
sau27 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 28, 2019 2:12 pm
One thing to keep in mind regarding this becoming an issue for Texas is that Texas is literally at the end of the line here. Everything would have to set up "perfectly" to get the storm to track this far west. Getting into September with troughs and fronts being a little more frequent this is an unlikely scenario. Not Impossible of course, but unlikely.
I get your point but tropical systems don't always follow climatology.
Re: September 2019 - Labor Day Weekend/Tracking Hurricane Dorian
Posted: Wed Aug 28, 2019 2:23 pm
by Scott747
The 12z GFS ensembles are now split between the fla panhandle and c la.