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Re: September 2019 - Labor Day Weekend/Tracking The Tropics
Posted: Wed Aug 28, 2019 2:09 am
by Scott747
It's the Europeans v Americans with Dorian.
Very little ridging on the GFS allows for a track towards the Carolinas/OTS.
Euro and Ukmet has stout ridging and a track towards s or c fla and back into the gulf before turning back n.
Still see nothing that would allow it to get this far w but ngom from NO and east are in play.
Re: September 2019 - Labor Day Weekend/Tracking The Tropics
Posted: Wed Aug 28, 2019 9:31 am
by Scott747
So.... It's getting a little more interesting concerning Dorian.
The 6z GFS ensembles have shifted a little further w with some of the members more towards the ngom.
The latest 6z Euro ensembles has a good amount of members that get a little further w in the gulf. Some imply a more westerly heading but it's hard to tell since the off hour Euro runs are shorter.
A track further into the gulf is still an outlier but there has been a trend overnight back towards the w.
Re: September 2019 - Labor Day Weekend/Tracking The Tropics
Posted: Wed Aug 28, 2019 9:53 am
by Kingwood36
Re: September 2019 - Labor Day Weekend/Tracking The Tropics
Posted: Wed Aug 28, 2019 10:04 am
by sau27
Quite the swing with the intermediate euro run. The 00Z euro looked like it might be starting to bite on the more easterly GFS solution by not bringing the storm much further west than Florida. Lets see what 12Z ukmet and Euro have to say. We also have to remember that Dorian's strength is going to a affect how it feels the steering features as well.
Re: September 2019 - Labor Day Weekend/Tracking The Tropics
Posted: Wed Aug 28, 2019 11:19 am
by Scott747
12z GFS is further w thru 90 hr. Ridging looks strong.
Re: September 2019 - Labor Day Weekend/Tracking The Tropics
Posted: Wed Aug 28, 2019 11:38 am
by ccbluewater
12Z Icon will raise some eyebrows. Sticking to its guns regarding Dorian & then some, and also closes off a system in the NW Gulf next week.
Re: September 2019 - Labor Day Weekend/Tracking The Tropics
Posted: Wed Aug 28, 2019 12:05 pm
by Kingwood36
ccbluewater wrote: ↑Wed Aug 28, 2019 11:38 am
12Z Icon will raise some eyebrows. Sticking to its guns regarding Dorian & then some, and also closes off a system in the NW Gulf next week.
Its the icon tho.....although ill give it its due it has been sticking to its guns on dorian
Re: September 2019 - Labor Day Weekend/Tracking The Tropics
Posted: Wed Aug 28, 2019 12:07 pm
by ccbluewater
Agreed. More found the system popping up towards our area of interest.
Re: September 2019 - Labor Day Weekend/Tracking TS Dorian
Posted: Wed Aug 28, 2019 12:10 pm
by srainhoutx
Tropical Storm Dorian Discussion Number 17...CORRECTED
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1100 AM AST Wed Aug 28 2019
Corrected day 5 intensity forecast in table.
Satellite and radar images indicate that the cloud pattern has
become better organized during the past several hours. This was
confirmed by data from an Air Force reconnaissance plane currently
investigating Dorian, which reported a flight-level wind of 72 kt
and a peak SFMR value of 60 kt. The estimated central pressure was
999 mb in the last fix. On this basis the initial intensity has
been adjusted upward to 60 kt. Only a slow strengthening is
anticipated today while Dorian is moving through the U.S. and
British Virgin Islands. However, once the cyclone reaches the
western Atlantic well east of the Bahamas, it will encounter a
favorable environment of low shear and warm waters, resulting in a
more marked intensification. The NHC foreast is more aggressive than
the previous one, and brings Dorian to category 3 intensity by the
end of the period. This forecast very closely follows the intensity
consensus, the HCCA model, and the SHIPS guidance.
Fixes from the reconnaissance plane indicate that Dorian has been
moving toward the northwest or 315 degrees at 11 kt. The cyclone is
heading toward a weakness in the Atlantic subtropical ridge, and
this motion should continue for the next 2 to 3 days. However, after
that time, all global models build a robust ridge over the western
Atlantic, and this flow pattern should force Dorian to turn more
to the west-northwest toward Florida and the southeast coast of the
United States. All indications are that by this Labor Day weekend, a
powerful hurricane will be near the Florida or southeastern coast of
the United States. The new NHC track forecast is not significantly
different from the previous one, and it very closely follows the
multi-model consensus TVCA and the HCCA. Users are reminded not to
focus on the exact forecast track, as the average 5-day track error
is around 200 miles.
Key Messages:
1. Hurricane conditions are expected in the U.S. and British Virgin
Islands, Culebra, and Vieques today. Tropical storm conditions are
expected in Puerto Rico today with hurricane conditions possible.
2. Heavy rainfall over portions of Puerto Rico and the U.S. and
British Virgin Islands could produce flash flooding during the next
couple of days. Heavy rains are expected to occur over portions of
the Bahamas, Florida, and elsewhere in the southeastern Untied
States later this week and into early next week.
3. The risk of dangerous storm surge and hurricane-force winds is
increasing in the central and northwestern Bahamas and along the
Florida east coast, although it is too soon to determine where these
hazards will occur. Residents in these areas should ensure that
they have their hurricane plan in place and not focus on the exact
forecast track of Dorian's center.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 28/1500Z 17.5N 64.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 29/0000Z 18.7N 65.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 29/1200Z 20.5N 67.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 30/0000Z 22.4N 68.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 30/1200Z 24.2N 69.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 31/1200Z 26.5N 74.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 01/1200Z 27.7N 77.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 02/1200Z 28.6N 80.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
$$
Forecaster Avila
Re: September 2019 - Labor Day Weekend/Tracking TS Dorian
Posted: Wed Aug 28, 2019 12:29 pm
by sau27
12Z UKMET comes into Florida a littler further south than the others, around Miami as a 960MB storm. Run only goes out to 144 hrs so it just barely covers landfall. Final frame shows a northward tug and a weakness in the ridge developing over the SE US.
Re: September 2019 - Labor Day Weekend/Tracking TS Dorian
Posted: Wed Aug 28, 2019 12:33 pm
by sau27
Also for all the eastward tug the GFS has shown the 12Z ensemble swings back out over the gulf, making the 12z operational run more of an outlier.
We've got more swings than a kindergarten playground here.
Re: September 2019 - Labor Day Weekend/Tracking TS Dorian
Posted: Wed Aug 28, 2019 1:11 pm
by Rip76
Hurricane now.
Re: September 2019 - Labor Day Weekend/Tracking TS Dorian
Posted: Wed Aug 28, 2019 1:19 pm
by Kingwood36
Could this make it to texas?
Re: September 2019 - Labor Day Weekend/Tracking TS Dorian
Posted: Wed Aug 28, 2019 1:20 pm
by Kingwood36
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Re: September 2019 - Labor Day Weekend/Tracking TS Dorian
Posted: Wed Aug 28, 2019 1:21 pm
by Cpv17
Kingwood36 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 28, 2019 1:19 pm
Could this make it to texas?
Most likely not, but never say never when a system is so far out there. It’ll all depend on the placement and strength of the ridge.
Re: September 2019 - Labor Day Weekend/Tracking TS Dorian
Posted: Wed Aug 28, 2019 1:30 pm
by srainhoutx
Rip76 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 28, 2019 1:11 pmHurricane now.
And right on cue, climatology wise the average date for the 2nd North Atlantic Hurricane of the season is August 28th.
Re: September 2019 - Labor Day Weekend/Tracking Hurricane Dorian
Posted: Wed Aug 28, 2019 1:36 pm
by Cromagnum
Every run is getting more and more west. Starting to smell like Ike (hopefully not)
Re: September 2019 - Labor Day Weekend/Tracking Hurricane Dorian
Posted: Wed Aug 28, 2019 1:37 pm
by Kingwood36
Ridge looks stronger on the 12Z Euro than the 00Z
Re: September 2019 - Labor Day Weekend/Tracking Hurricane Dorian
Posted: Wed Aug 28, 2019 1:44 pm
by Cpv17
I said all along this will be a south Florida storm and then it’s anyones guess after that. Ukmet and ICON have had a good handle on this so far. I could even see Dorian going through the Straits.
Re: September 2019 - Labor Day Weekend/Tracking Hurricane Dorian
Posted: Wed Aug 28, 2019 1:47 pm
by Kingwood36
I could see this getting as close to lousiana