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Cloud tops do appear to be warming and the lightning as well as the hourly rainfall rates have come down a bit within the last hour. Hopefully that trend continues as the rain slowly moves southward. Do not let your guard down. While it may be slightly letting up, areas south of I-10 are saturated from earlier rains so it won't take much to flood.

Thanks for the input all. We are all primarily on the SW side in Stafford area. I would rather give them the chance to get home before the heaviest rains arrive. It looks like it will get worse down here before it gets better. So I am going to let them go home and work from home.

Thank god we are getting a break in the Humble area. My neighborhood has lots of street flooding, and had practically none during Harvey. At least things draining very quickly now that the rain slowed down.

Tx2005 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 19, 2019 11:44 am Thank god we are getting a break in the Humble area. My neighborhood has lots of street flooding, and had practically none during Harvey. At least things draining very quickly now that the rain slowed down.

You are getting a break, but there is more coming in

Belmer wrote: ↑Thu Sep 19, 2019 11:39 am Cloud tops do appear to be warming and the lightning as well as the hourly rainfall rates have come down a bit within the last hour. Hopefully that trend continues as the rain slowly moves southward. Do not let your guard down. While it may be slightly letting up, areas south of I-10 are saturated from earlier rains so it won't take much to flood.

I see the warming tops, however it does appear new tops are going up just to the west of the main MCS. I am a bit concerned about this continuing to feed the band.

I’m concerned this will continue. Lots of instability is feeding the bands from the south and west. As the low drifts north, the bands may just stall or even lift out some more later on. Not an easy forecast for sure.

000
FXUS64 KHGX 191604
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1104 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019

.SHORT TERM [This Afternoon]...
Messy overnight weather shifting into messy morning and afternoon
weather for a good portion of the FA. Large band of thunderstorms
(MCS) that was draped over the central/southeastern counties last
night/early this morning has been slowly sinking S/SE and filling
in from the west this morning (along the coast). Some of the near
term models are indicating that these trends will continue and we
could see additional rounds of rain over areas that got a hit yes-
terday (particularly Galveston/Brazoria/Harris/Chambers counties).
Some incredible rainfall totals/rates have been reported thus far
and, unfortunately, we`re not really seeing signs of things taper-
ing off just yet. Main message is to stay put if you can and keep
up to date on the latest weather developments. 41

&&

.AVIATION [18Z Issuance]...
Will be keeping with the mention of TSRA for the rest of this aft-
ernoon/early evening...likely improving things after 01Z. Will be
hard-pressed to not include at least VCTS for most sites tomorrow
afternoon. Overnight issues could include MVFR/IFR CIGS. 41

...and some folks yesterday said this was all over....

jasons wrote: ↑Thu Sep 19, 2019 11:52 am ...and some folks yesterday said this was all over....

I was one of them...no worries im eating a big plate of crow as we speak

Clouds are consolidating near South Houston.

To check the water in the local waterways...

https://www.harriscountyfws.org/GageDet ... n=rssalert

left the office before things slammed the Galleria area earlier. Made it to my home in the Katy area, and will say that things have really ramped up here. Lightning has increased and is quite intense. Going to be a long day.

The storms building to the west down i-10 towards Katy particularly concern me from a bayou standpoint. That is upstream for Braes Bayou and will only exacerbate its rise.

White Oak Bayou at Heights Blvd... bayou coming near bank full.

Belmer wrote: ↑Thu Sep 19, 2019 12:18 pm White Oak Bayou at Heights Blvd... bayou coming near bank full.

520.png

I'm just north of there and looks like we received ~5 inches in an hour and a half. Pretty incredible rates here. The bayou over by our region isn't as bad but there is still a lot of rain to flow into the bayous. I am getting concerned with the line building south of I-10. Could be big issues if things continue to develop and slowly push south over areas who already got hit earlier this week.

New Flood Warning coming for Ft Bend/Western Harris/Waller...possibly extending back to Austin/Colorado Counties

HRRR does not seem to be handling the band building back out to the west. And now on the 16z rolling in it is developing another line to the northwest this afternoon. HRRR has been great so far, hopefully it is not losing its grip on the situation.

New small showers by Conroe developing (maybe what hrrr has reforming nw?), but at least the band is moving this far.

From Houston Community College:

he Harris County Judge issued a shelter in place. Once lifted, HCC students will be dismissed, and all HCC classes will be canceled for today.

Ugly stuff moving in from the gulf side. Its gonna meet somewhere in the middle with the line marching south. Long day ahead and peak heating is nearing.