September 2019 - Warm End of September

[sau27]

I hate to be "that guy" but I am watching 94L. It is way out there, near the Cabo Verde islands but there is modest support for this tracking west across the Atlantic instead of getting scooped up and recurving. Something to watch.

[Texaspirate11]

The stories out of the Bahamas are horrific.
they remind me of those that I have read about in the 1900 Storm
People, in the middle of the night, clinging on to anything as they winds thrash them about
I feel so badly for those that are suffering and have lost so much.

[tireman4]

XUS64 KHGX 061741
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1241 PM CDT Fri Sep 6 2019

.AVIATION [18Z TAF issuance]...

MVFR/IFR cigs that briefly developed this morning have now
subsided, and conditions through the remainder of the day are
expected to remain within VFR thresholds. S/SE winds should stay
in the 5 to 10 knot range today, becoming light and variable
overnight before shifting more to the S/SW by tomorrow afternoon.
Model soundings and SREF probabilistic guidance suggest the
possibility of some areas fog developing from approximately 10Z
to 14Z tomorrow morning around CLL, CXO, SGR, and LBX. This may
also be accompanied by some brief sub-VFR cigs, although currently
have included FEW decks in TAFs due to lower confidence.

Cady

[unome]

Chris Hollis of Tropical Atlantic is brilliant, and just a genuine, good person on top of that - he worked 24/7 on this Bahamas radar loop for a while & one of his modest, 1st comments on it were "I modified a couple lines of code"

I recommend you watch his youtube video at 1080p: https://twitter.com/TropicalATL/status/ ... 0500380673

Tropical Atlantic
‏ @TropicalATL
7h7 hours ago

A higher quality radar loop of #Dorian's historic, destructive & deadly path through the Bahamas. Radar loop from Aug. 31st at 4:30am AST through Sep. 4th at 4:00pm AST. Imagery mirrored from the Bahamas Department of Meteorology. Background from @Esri. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HH6eIqAdTMw …

[cperk]

The stories out of the Bahamas are horrific.
they remind me of those that I have read about in the 1900 Storm
People, in the middle of the night, clinging on to anything as they winds thrash them about
I feel so badly for those that are suffering and have lost so much.

Heart breaking.

[cperk]

Chris Hollis of Tropical Atlantic is brilliant, and just a genuine, good person on top of that - he worked 24/7 on this Bahamas radar loop for a while & one of his modest, 1st comments on it were "I modified a couple lines of code"

I recommend you watch his youtube video at 1080p: https://twitter.com/TropicalATL/status/ ... 0500380673

Tropical Atlantic
‏ @TropicalATL
7h7 hours ago

A higher quality radar loop of #Dorian's historic, destructive & deadly path through the Bahamas. Radar loop from Aug. 31st at 4:30am AST through Sep. 4th at 4:00pm AST. Imagery mirrored from the Bahamas Department of Meteorology. Background from @Esri. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HH6eIqAdTMw …

Geez.

[srainhoutx]

I see no strong fronts on the horizon and neither does the NOAA/Climate Prediction Center. WxTwitter may have a different outlook...

[BlueJay]

Chris Hollis of Tropical Atlantic is brilliant, and just a genuine, good person on top of that - he worked 24/7 on this Bahamas radar loop for a while & one of his modest, 1st comments on it were "I modified a couple lines of code"

I recommend you watch his youtube video at 1080p: https://twitter.com/TropicalATL/status/ ... 0500380673

Tropical Atlantic
‏ @TropicalATL
7h7 hours ago

A higher quality radar loop of #Dorian's historic, destructive & deadly path through the Bahamas. Radar loop from Aug. 31st at 4:30am AST through Sep. 4th at 4:00pm AST. Imagery mirrored from the Bahamas Department of Meteorology. Background from @Esri. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HH6eIqAdTMw …

Geez.

There are no words that work here. Texaspirate and cperk are right-it is heartbreaking.

Thanks for sharing unome.

[Ptarmigan]

Hurricane Dorian death toll in Bahamas rises to 43: media
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-stor ... SKCN1VS037

The death toll is likely to rise.

[Texaspirate11]

Thanks unome.
A lesson when a major storm comes try to evacuate....God bless these souls

[cperk]

I see no strong fronts on the horizon and neither does the NOAA/Climate Prediction Center. WxTwitter may have a different outlook...

09062019 3 To 4 Weeks WK34temp.gif
09062019 Week 3 to 4 WK34prcp.gif

Appreciate you hunting for one srain i know you gave it your all.

[snowman65]

I see no strong fronts on the horizon and neither does the NOAA/Climate Prediction Center. WxTwitter may have a different outlook...

09062019 3 To 4 Weeks WK34temp.gif
09062019 Week 3 to 4 WK34prcp.gif

I don't think I've ever seen the entire map in Orange for this tome of year....I'm assuming it will be a bitterly cold winter then...hehe

[DoctorMu]

Thanks unome.
A lesson when a major storm comes try to evacuate....God bless these souls

Many of those homes had reinforced concrete. Just unbelievable. Nothing can stand up to day long 185 mph winds, with 220 mph gusts) and 25 ft storm surge. CG has rescued about 300 so far...but countless are likely missing.

[Texaspirate11]

Tomorrow is the 119th anny of the 1900 storm. I see many parallels with the stories coming out of the Bahamas.

[jasons2k]

Thought I'd pop-in to report I had a high of 102 today. Baseball practice was HOT!!

But I have to say, for me, it was more bearable than a temp in the 30's or 40's with a wind chill. I'm ready for fall - yes - but NOT looking forward to winter.

Now if we could just get some rain!! I'm seeing a lot of dead grass, even shrubs and some trees are now succumbing to the drought and dying. I don't think I've seen dead/torched trees since 2011 but it's starting. Mostly oaks. The pines seem OK for now (pines have deep tap roots, and while intense, the drought has been a short one thus far). The sweet gums are starting to drop leaves too, but they are OK. Just under stress, like everything else.

I still believe that 'real world' conditions are always a little worse than the USDA drought monitor. It's bad and getting worse. At least it is September now - it can't last forever, right?

I'm noticing a pattern that unless there is an El Nino present, we just can't stay normal or above normal in the rainfall department. So either there is some long-term weather pattern with the ocean currents (I think Jeff did a writeup on this a few years ago), or the desertification of the SW US due to global warming is a real thing. Or both. Either way, something is going-on with our local climate.

[Cromagnum]

Miserably hot outside today. The cold weather can't get here soon enough. I hope once it takes hold, we're stuck with cold until next May.

[unome]

Dorian Recon recap - Twitter thread & youtube video

https://twitter.com/TropicalATL/status/ ... 9644481536
https://youtu.be/EbLr_MPfBEA

TropicalAtlantic
Published on Sep 7, 2019
#Dorian had the second most hurricane hunter reconnaissance missions than any other storm since 1989. There were 49 missions by the Air Force & NOAA hurricane hunters that either went into the storm or sampled around the storm. Ivan in 2004 had the most.

Reconnaissance was conducted between August 25th and September 6th, 2019.

While hurricane hunter reconnaissance occurred before 1989, the National Hurricane Center's Reconnaissance Data Archive only goes back to 1989 and our site doesn't have any data prior to that year. There were two additional missions that turned around before reaching Dorian and are not counted in the total.
Category
Science & Technology

[unome]

because it ain't over 'til it's over - 8 AM TWO should be out soon, may it be merciful

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5

[srainhoutx]

Some changes are brewing in our local sensible weather this morning and a surge of deeper tropical moisture is nearing our area as a Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) pushes toward Northern Mexico/S Texas. Early morning water vapor imagery clearly show the TUTT low nearing Brownsville a deeper tropical moisture to the Eats of that upper low moving inland in Louisiana heading West. I am not sure everyone will get rain beginning Monday, but at least some will have a shot at daytime showers/storms continuing through at least Wednesday. Fingers Crossed!

[Ptarmigan]

This is not Texas related, but involves a typhoon that could impact Tokyo area.

Looks like Tokyo area could be hit Category 4 Typhoon Faxai. Tokyo area has nearly 40 million people, while the city has over 12 million people.