September 2019 - Warm End of September

[Cpv17]

I'm watching that band from Hunstville to College Station. Don't know how long it will hold together, but I'm watching it...

You’d think the atmosphere is too worked over to sustain anything. Except for areas out west.

[txbear]

i'm trying to get some sort of an idea of what to expect in the overnight hours. radar wise, it seems that most of the activity that is back building fizzles out before it can drift over the areas already hit. Cpv17 i tend to agree that it's too worked over to redevelop. but it seems that tropical systems don't follow the norm. i'd like to think that last main line was it, but if it washes out and inflow returns, could we see redevelopment?

Don't want to let the guard down.

[Texashawk]

There’s a fair amount of activity backbuiding from Columbus to Austin. Should we be concerned?

[davidiowx]

HRRR shows another round coming through this evening but appears to be much weaker than the rains from this morning and afternoon.

[davidiowx]

It really annoys me that these news anchors get in peoples faces and ask questions when they are being rescued. /rant.

[Cpv17]

It looks like my area (Wharton County) is under the gun now. Pouring buckets at my house right now. Anxious to see what I’ll come home to.

[srainhoutx]

The atmosphere over Montgomery, Harris and Liberty Counties is extremely worked over and stabilizing as the threat for heavier rainfall moves down the Coast and into the Brazos Valley and N Texas. Think we are out of the woods beyond what's happening along the Coastal tier of Counties. Perhaps some light rain...less than an inch can be expected for most in Metro Houston overnight. Thanks to ALL that have contributed. You folks are awesome! Time for some needed rest for me...

[DoctorMu]

We have been rescued. Home is flooded in Beaumont. All of Beaumont is SHUT DOWN COMPLETELY! Just saw rain totals for us JUST for lastnight. 30” overnight in Beaumont and 42” since monday. This is Harvey all over again actually i have more flooding and damage than harvey. Thoughts and prayers for ALL of SETX.

Turns my stomach - I am so sorry to hear this news!! I'm glad that you are OK though.

42" Holy mackeral. Glad you're OK, MIKE!

[DoctorMu]

There’s a fair amount of activity backbuiding from Columbus to Austin. Should we be concerned?

Yeah, there's a broken line from Fredericksburg through Austin that will continue to target the Lake Jackson to Galveston era. Folks near to coast stay mindful for the potential of flash flooding.

A second cluster building around Brenham. Likely to move east into Navasota, southern Brazos County.

[jasons2k]

I don't know about the atmosphere being "overworked". Tropical air masses behave differently. The 'atmosphere' above us is being replenished by the circulation pulling-in the air from the west. That line up towards Hunstville is holding together and I see some cells trying to fill-in again along 290 in NW Harris County. I think the bigger question is around inflow and convergence, especially as we get into the nighttime and the coastal band eventually collapses.

[Cpv17]

I think outside of a few areas seeing an additional 2-4”, this event is pretty much over with. Next week is now looking interesting.

[Andrew]

I don't know about the atmosphere being "overworked". Tropical air masses behave differently. The 'atmosphere' above us is being replenished by the circulation pulling-in the air from the west. That line up towards Hunstville is holding together and I see some cells trying to fill-in again along 290 in NW Harris County. I think the bigger question is around inflow and convergence, especially as we get into the nighttime and the coastal band eventually collapses.

Localized boundaries that created the large issue today are gone and no model shows any additional development. Scattered showers will be possible into tomorrow but nothing like today. I think we will be in pretty good shape for now

[davidiowx]

Some of the aerial footage coming out from abc13 of the traffic and flooding on the freeways is unbelievable. I’m relieved I let employees leave before lunch and they made it home. I can’t imagine sitting in that right now.

[bikerack]

Some of the aerial footage coming out from abc13 of the traffic and flooding on the freeways is unbelievable. I’m relieved I let employees leave before lunch and they made it home. I can’t imagine sitting in that right now.

I didn't go in today but one of the people in charge at work today went around and told people they could leave. It sounds like if they didn't leave right then, they got stuck. I think there are about 20 people still at the office trapped by flood waters.

[srainhoutx]

5:30 PM Update from Jeff:

Rainfall is weakening over the area with additional rainfall tonight of generally less than 1-2 inches



Channels:

Lower White Oak: crested and starting to fall. Should see the channel fall below levels of I-10/I-45 over the next 4 hours

Hunting: overbanks along the upper and lower portions of the channel

Halls: flooding along the entire channel

Greens: overbanks from US 59 to Ship Channel

Cedar: overbanks from headwaters to Hwy 146 (Baytown)

East Fork San Jacinto: major flooding will continue into Friday and fall bank within banks Sunday

West Fork San Jacinto: major flooding will continue into Friday and fall back within banks on Saturday

Buffalo Bayou: overbanks in Downtown up to about San Felipe…will slowly crest and fall this evening

48 hr Storm Totals:

[Cpv17]

Just got home from work and emptied 3.2” out of the gauge on top of the 1” yesterday. 4.6” last week and 4.2” so far this week. Awesome!!

[jasons2k]

I don't know about the atmosphere being "overworked". Tropical air masses behave differently. The 'atmosphere' above us is being replenished by the circulation pulling-in the air from the west. That line up towards Hunstville is holding together and I see some cells trying to fill-in again along 290 in NW Harris County. I think the bigger question is around inflow and convergence, especially as we get into the nighttime and the coastal band eventually collapses.

Localized boundaries that created the large issue today are gone and no model shows any additional development. Scattered showers will be possible into tomorrow but nothing like today. I think we will be in pretty good shape for now

Look at the radar south & east of Galveston. You can see the inflow starting to ride over the top of the decaying band, and new bands are forming SW to NE along the convergence zones. No I'm not predicting a repeat of last night, but I am saying we can't write this off until the remnant low stops sucking-in inflow off the Gulf, and it's not finished yet. You have to remember when you have a tropical low in the vicinity, it changes the rules re: localized boundaries, especially at night.

[jasons2k]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
506 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019

...Flood Watch Remains in Effect for Most of SE TX Overnight...

.SHORT TERM [Tonight through Friday Night]...
The overnight MCS/band of storms has persisted and has slowly sag-
ged south this afternoon is still going fairly strong across areas
stretching from Columbus southeast to Jamaica Beach at this time.
Of concern for the next few hrs is the possibility of another em-
bedded shortwave approaching from the west. Scattered storms have
been developing/filling in from this direction this afternoon and
we are still seeing decent inflow/moisture from the Gulf. Keeping
the Flood Watch in place overnight given all these ongoing issues
with high water/saturated grounds as it should not take that much
for conditions to get bad once again. But despite this being said,
will be expecting the activity to decrease a shortly/this evening
with the loss of heating. However...given this very very tropical
air mass over SE TX and the remnants of Imelda still lingering in
and near East TX...this break could be brief. Would not be at all
surprised with spotty SHRAs developing overnight.

Models are continuing to shift the remnants of this system to the
NE tomorrow, and we will be expecting the focus of development to
also shift more NE/E with time. Barring any leftover outflows (or
other boundaries), activity tomorrow afternoon will be more scatt-
ered in nature.

[Andrew]

I don't know about the atmosphere being "overworked". Tropical air masses behave differently. The 'atmosphere' above us is being replenished by the circulation pulling-in the air from the west. That line up towards Hunstville is holding together and I see some cells trying to fill-in again along 290 in NW Harris County. I think the bigger question is around inflow and convergence, especially as we get into the nighttime and the coastal band eventually collapses.

Localized boundaries that created the large issue today are gone and no model shows any additional development. Scattered showers will be possible into tomorrow but nothing like today. I think we will be in pretty good shape for now

Look at the radar south & east of Galveston. You can see the inflow starting to ride over the top of the decaying band, and new bands are forming SW to NE along the convergence zones. No I'm not predicting a repeat of last night, but I am saying we can't write this off until the remnant low stops sucking-in inflow off the Gulf, and it's not finished yet. You have to remember when you have a tropical low in the vicinity, it changes the rules re: localized boundaries, especially at night.

Inflow has been present all day. The thing that made this situation so much worse was the convergence zone over Central SE Texas. At the end of the day, the rules remain the same and any tropical systems still have to follow the dynamics and thermodynamics of the atmosphere. Will scattered rain showers remain present through tomorrow? Yes, but we shouldn't see anything close to what we saw today.

[jasons2k]

Have to say, radar is suddenly going quiet..