ok, I have a contender for Stu Ostro's "hurricane monster" collection, 'cept I don't know him, so please feel free to pass it on - compliments of RAMMB's Meso 1 Slider today; Multi-Spectral "Split Window Difference"
Looks like the Grinch is trying to devour Florida...
September 2019 - Warm End of September
-
srainhoutx
- Site Admin
- Posts: 19620
- Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
- Contact:
We are waiting to hear from Josh. Scott747 probably will get some word before anyone. While we are disturbed over the terrible reports coming out for portions of Abaco Islands, Josh is warrior. I pray for all the folks across the Northern Bahamas! It's going to take everyone chipping in to help our neighbors as they helped us with Harvey.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
I cannot imagine the death toll will be from Dorian. 
Cataclysmic. EF-4/5 like images + flooding. Sea and wind are leveling the north islands.
Meteorologically, the friction of the north islands may have relieved Florida of the risk of great destruction. Our aid to Bermuda must be as robust as Dorian's vice grip.
https://t.co/z4aVx6sfHm?amp=1
So Josh has been placed on a sort of missing/unaccounted for type of list. Personally I think someone got spooked after what appears to be some Twitter troll passing along unsubstantiated info.
Being on the list makes it look worse than what it could be. Josh always takes a few days to reconnect and with the long duration of the storm it is likely slowing the process down.
Hopefully as the storm finally moves away he will reconnect soon.
So Josh has been placed on a sort of missing/unaccounted for type of list. Personally I think someone got spooked after what appears to be some Twitter troll passing along unsubstantiated info.
Being on the list makes it look worse than what it could be. Josh always takes a few days to reconnect and with the long duration of the storm it is likely slowing the process down.
Hopefully as the storm finally moves away he will reconnect soon.
-
Katdaddy
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 2504
- Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 8:18 am
- Location: League City, Tx
- Contact:
Hurricane Dorian has weakened to 120g150MPH but has been basically stationary for 24 hours over the NW Bahamas as a historic tragedy continues.
Invest 93L over the W GOM will become a TD or TS today but is still forecast to move into NE MX later this week as a TS with well needed rainfall for STX.
A few showers and thunderstorm will be possible along the coast the next few days from our W GOM tropical system before Summer heat returns for the end of the week and next weekend. From this morning’s Houston-Galveston NWS AFD:
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
455 AM CDT Tue Sep 3 2019
.DISCUSSION...
.Summary...
- Potential Tropical Cyclone (PTC) 7 is over the southwestern Gulf
and is forecast to come onshore over the northeastern Mexico
coast Wednesday.
- Outer bands of PTC 7 will initiate local Gulf water shower and
thunderstorm bands. Some of these bands will work their way
onshore through the day...showers with embedded storms moving
west across the coastal counties.
- Very hot start to September. Upper ridging will envelop the
state and, with the resident dry air mass, weekly daytime
temperatures will quickly soar into the 90s. Many locations
will achieve the 100 F degree mark over multiple days.
Invest 93L over the W GOM will become a TD or TS today but is still forecast to move into NE MX later this week as a TS with well needed rainfall for STX.
A few showers and thunderstorm will be possible along the coast the next few days from our W GOM tropical system before Summer heat returns for the end of the week and next weekend. From this morning’s Houston-Galveston NWS AFD:
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
455 AM CDT Tue Sep 3 2019
.DISCUSSION...
.Summary...
- Potential Tropical Cyclone (PTC) 7 is over the southwestern Gulf
and is forecast to come onshore over the northeastern Mexico
coast Wednesday.
- Outer bands of PTC 7 will initiate local Gulf water shower and
thunderstorm bands. Some of these bands will work their way
onshore through the day...showers with embedded storms moving
west across the coastal counties.
- Very hot start to September. Upper ridging will envelop the
state and, with the resident dry air mass, weekly daytime
temperatures will quickly soar into the 90s. Many locations
will achieve the 100 F degree mark over multiple days.
- Attachments
-
- Screen Shot 2019-09-03 at 5.09.47 AM.png (42.24 KiB) Viewed 4149 times
-
ccbluewater
- Posts: 64
- Joined: Tue May 23, 2017 1:16 pm
- Location: Cypress
- Contact:
Hoping to hear some good news on Josh (@icyclone) soon. I don't know him personally like several of you, but do enjoy his work. What an unbelievable storm Dorian has turned out to be, and isn't close to being done yet.
Not looking forward to the lack of rain, and the bake continuing the rest of the week here. 0.3" over the last month here according to Harris County FWS gauge about a mile away. Constantly has been the parting of the sea when storms get here.
Not looking forward to the lack of rain, and the bake continuing the rest of the week here. 0.3" over the last month here according to Harris County FWS gauge about a mile away. Constantly has been the parting of the sea when storms get here.
Hey Jason check your PM
The rumors about Josh on S2k are getting a little out of hand.
The rumors about Josh on S2k are getting a little out of hand.
Again to my knowledge josh's family has not reported him missing and I've also seen no evidence that the rescue teams have went to the school where he was at and didn't make contact.
There has to be some verification with these claims.
There has to be some verification with these claims.
No longer confident in the models and the trough will pick this up, as Dorian seems to have created its own safe space and refuses to budge. Moving NW at 1 mph, currently.
At this point the only person that I trust for further info on Josh is Jeff Piotrowski.
His latest message is that the coast guard is looking for him. Still doesn't mean he's missing per se. I believe he's just using his resources.
His latest message is that the coast guard is looking for him. Still doesn't mean he's missing per se. I believe he's just using his resources.
-
Texaspirate11
- Posts: 1278
- Joined: Tue Dec 31, 2013 12:24 am
- Contact:
Prayers for him...hes gonna have one hell of a story
Just because you're disabled, you don't have to be a victim
Be Weather Aware & Prepared!
Barbara Jordan Winner in Media
Disability Integration Consultant
Be Weather Aware & Prepared!
Barbara Jordan Winner in Media
Disability Integration Consultant
Thanks. It has been dealt with. There was no bad intent here - it was a repost of info. that was posted on Reddit.
Sometimes a seemingly benign comment gets snipped, posted on Twitter and then goes viral.
It's challenging to police everything in today's digital age.
(and believe me our staff is having a behind-closed-doors discussion about this matter)
Last edited by jasons2k on Tue Sep 03, 2019 12:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4528
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
.DISCUSSION...0
FXUS64 KHGX 031551
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1051 AM CDT Tue Sep 3 2019
.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...
National Hurricane Center has now classified the disturbance in
the western Gulf of Mexico as Tropical Depression Seven. It is
forecast to move west towards Mexico and possibly become a
tropical storm before making landfall. Overall impacts to SE Texas
will be minimal with possibly an outer rainbands passing along
the coast like we have seen yesterday and this morning. Otherwise
we are expecting hot conditions the next several days. Only
changes to the forecast this morning were to update based on
current trends and near term guidance.
Overpeck
&&
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 99 76 101 74 102 / 0 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 99 78 100 77 101 / 10 10 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 93 82 95 82 95 / 100 20 10 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM CDT this evening for the
following zones: Brazoria Islands...Galveston Island and
Bolivar Peninsula...Matagorda Islands.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 7 PM CDT this evening
for the following zones: Waters from Freeport to Matagorda
Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island
to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...Overpeck
.Summary...
- Potential Tropical Cyclone (PTC) 7 is over the southwestern Gulf
and is forecast to come onshore over the northeastern Mexico
coast Wednesday.
- Outer bands of PTC 7 will initiate local Gulf water shower and
thunderstorm bands. Some of these bands will work their way
onshore through the day...showers with embedded storms moving
west across the coastal counties.
- Very hot start to September. Upper ridging will envelop the
state and, with the resident dry air mass, weekly daytime
temperatures will quickly soar into the 90s. Many locations
will achieve the 100 F degree mark over multiple days.
Near Term (Today)...
Scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms are traveling
westward across our local Gulf waters. These outer bands are
rotating around a broad closed-off 1008 mb low over the
southwestern Gulf. Due to the more organized, spiraling
convection forming around this large surface low, the Hurricane
Center has classified this as Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven.
As of 4 AM, sustained winds are 30 knots with a central pressure
of 1006 mb and a near 6 knot westward movement. PTC 7 is forecast
to become a Tropical Depression later today and a Tropical Storm
either late tonight or early tomorrow morning. This system is
forecast to make landfall over the northeastern Mexican coast;
into the Tamaulipas Province.
Mainly clear skies and a drier resident air mass will allow
daytime temperatures to quickly rise into the areawide 90s by 10
or 11 AM this morning. A drier air mass will assist in warming
many into the upper 90s to lower 100s by 3 or 4 PM. Lower heat-of-
the-day dew points will mix out into the 60s within the interior,
lower 70s close to the coast. This will equate to maximum heat
indices in the 104 to 108 F range. While the chance is low, there
may be a need to issue a very short fuse coastal county Heat
Advisory during the Noon to 5 PM afternoon hours.
Short Term (Tonight through Wednesday)...
Either TD or a TS (Erin?) over the southwestern Gulf is forecast
to make landfall in the Tamaulipas Province of NE Mexico on
Wednesday. A 594 dam upper ridge centered over the OK-TX
Panhandles will expand southeastward across the region through mid
week. This mid to upper level subsidence will keep the burners on
through mid week and shut off any precipitation chances. Warm
morning minimum temperatures in the middle 70s to around 80 F warm
into the 90s by late morning. Afternoon temperatures will top out
in the upper 90s to lower 100s. Lower humidities in the 20s and
30s (percentile) will regulate heat indices to a few degrees
above maximum temperatures, or in the 103 to 106 F range. While
Heat Advisories will likely not be required, it is not overkill to
remind everyone to practice heat safety as we head through this
first week of September. And...it will be wise to ignore the
fashion police and wear that loose-fitting white (light colored)
clothing (after Labor Day).
Long Term (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Your air conditioner will be working OT as the main theme of this
period will be that of heat. Subsequent days of 100 F degree
afternoons and, other than an isolated air mass pop up shower or
storm, no welcome rain will arrive. Maximum temperature records
will be safe until Friday. A 99 F maxT record in Houston will
likely be tied or fall (100 F is forecast) on Friday. Weekend
maxT records in the upper 90s to around 102 F will either be tied
or broken. So, a September heat wave that may take current D0
drought (Abnormally Dry) values to possible D1 (Moderate) values
by this time next week.
&&
.Aviation...
Previous set of TAFs look to be in good shape and am not expecting
many changes to the 12z set. VFR conditions are expected, though
there will be some intermittent bands of precipitation closer to the
coast and offshore.
&&
.Marine...
An area of low pressure was situated about 200 miles ene of Tampico,
Mexico. Conditions are conducive for a tropical depression to form
during the next day or so while the low moves slowly westward or
west-southwestward toward Mexico. Locally, expect some outer bands
of precipitation offshore, moderate easterly winds and a 3 to 6 foot
swell in the Gulf waters. High pressure develop behind this system
after it moves inland in Mexico which should bring lower winds and
seas later in the work week into the weekend.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 99 76 101 74 102 / 0 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 99 78 100 77 101 / 10 10 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 93 82 95 82 95 / 50 20 10 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for the following
zones: Brazoria Islands...Galveston Island and Bolivar
Peninsula...Matagorda Islands.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION through this evening for the
following zones: Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship
Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to
Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.
&&
$$
Short/Long...31
Aviation/Marine...47
FXUS64 KHGX 031551
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1051 AM CDT Tue Sep 3 2019
.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...
National Hurricane Center has now classified the disturbance in
the western Gulf of Mexico as Tropical Depression Seven. It is
forecast to move west towards Mexico and possibly become a
tropical storm before making landfall. Overall impacts to SE Texas
will be minimal with possibly an outer rainbands passing along
the coast like we have seen yesterday and this morning. Otherwise
we are expecting hot conditions the next several days. Only
changes to the forecast this morning were to update based on
current trends and near term guidance.
Overpeck
&&
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 99 76 101 74 102 / 0 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 99 78 100 77 101 / 10 10 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 93 82 95 82 95 / 100 20 10 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM CDT this evening for the
following zones: Brazoria Islands...Galveston Island and
Bolivar Peninsula...Matagorda Islands.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 7 PM CDT this evening
for the following zones: Waters from Freeport to Matagorda
Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island
to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...Overpeck
.Summary...
- Potential Tropical Cyclone (PTC) 7 is over the southwestern Gulf
and is forecast to come onshore over the northeastern Mexico
coast Wednesday.
- Outer bands of PTC 7 will initiate local Gulf water shower and
thunderstorm bands. Some of these bands will work their way
onshore through the day...showers with embedded storms moving
west across the coastal counties.
- Very hot start to September. Upper ridging will envelop the
state and, with the resident dry air mass, weekly daytime
temperatures will quickly soar into the 90s. Many locations
will achieve the 100 F degree mark over multiple days.
Near Term (Today)...
Scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms are traveling
westward across our local Gulf waters. These outer bands are
rotating around a broad closed-off 1008 mb low over the
southwestern Gulf. Due to the more organized, spiraling
convection forming around this large surface low, the Hurricane
Center has classified this as Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven.
As of 4 AM, sustained winds are 30 knots with a central pressure
of 1006 mb and a near 6 knot westward movement. PTC 7 is forecast
to become a Tropical Depression later today and a Tropical Storm
either late tonight or early tomorrow morning. This system is
forecast to make landfall over the northeastern Mexican coast;
into the Tamaulipas Province.
Mainly clear skies and a drier resident air mass will allow
daytime temperatures to quickly rise into the areawide 90s by 10
or 11 AM this morning. A drier air mass will assist in warming
many into the upper 90s to lower 100s by 3 or 4 PM. Lower heat-of-
the-day dew points will mix out into the 60s within the interior,
lower 70s close to the coast. This will equate to maximum heat
indices in the 104 to 108 F range. While the chance is low, there
may be a need to issue a very short fuse coastal county Heat
Advisory during the Noon to 5 PM afternoon hours.
Short Term (Tonight through Wednesday)...
Either TD or a TS (Erin?) over the southwestern Gulf is forecast
to make landfall in the Tamaulipas Province of NE Mexico on
Wednesday. A 594 dam upper ridge centered over the OK-TX
Panhandles will expand southeastward across the region through mid
week. This mid to upper level subsidence will keep the burners on
through mid week and shut off any precipitation chances. Warm
morning minimum temperatures in the middle 70s to around 80 F warm
into the 90s by late morning. Afternoon temperatures will top out
in the upper 90s to lower 100s. Lower humidities in the 20s and
30s (percentile) will regulate heat indices to a few degrees
above maximum temperatures, or in the 103 to 106 F range. While
Heat Advisories will likely not be required, it is not overkill to
remind everyone to practice heat safety as we head through this
first week of September. And...it will be wise to ignore the
fashion police and wear that loose-fitting white (light colored)
clothing (after Labor Day).
Long Term (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Your air conditioner will be working OT as the main theme of this
period will be that of heat. Subsequent days of 100 F degree
afternoons and, other than an isolated air mass pop up shower or
storm, no welcome rain will arrive. Maximum temperature records
will be safe until Friday. A 99 F maxT record in Houston will
likely be tied or fall (100 F is forecast) on Friday. Weekend
maxT records in the upper 90s to around 102 F will either be tied
or broken. So, a September heat wave that may take current D0
drought (Abnormally Dry) values to possible D1 (Moderate) values
by this time next week.
&&
.Aviation...
Previous set of TAFs look to be in good shape and am not expecting
many changes to the 12z set. VFR conditions are expected, though
there will be some intermittent bands of precipitation closer to the
coast and offshore.
&&
.Marine...
An area of low pressure was situated about 200 miles ene of Tampico,
Mexico. Conditions are conducive for a tropical depression to form
during the next day or so while the low moves slowly westward or
west-southwestward toward Mexico. Locally, expect some outer bands
of precipitation offshore, moderate easterly winds and a 3 to 6 foot
swell in the Gulf waters. High pressure develop behind this system
after it moves inland in Mexico which should bring lower winds and
seas later in the work week into the weekend.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 99 76 101 74 102 / 0 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 99 78 100 77 101 / 10 10 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 93 82 95 82 95 / 50 20 10 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for the following
zones: Brazoria Islands...Galveston Island and Bolivar
Peninsula...Matagorda Islands.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION through this evening for the
following zones: Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship
Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to
Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.
&&
$$
Short/Long...31
Aviation/Marine...47
I don't think I have ever once seen 100% chance of rain in Galveston, and only a 10% chance at IAH. Thanks mother nature for just rubbing more salt on us.
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4528
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
284
FXUS64 KHGX 031730
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1230 PM CDT Tue Sep 3 2019
.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...
Overall expecting there to be VFR conditions for the next 24 to 30
hours with northeast to east winds. Winds should decrease tonight
and then increase again during the day tomorrow. Any thunderstorm
chances will be confined to the coast but we may need to keep an
eye out for an isolated storm that forms on the sea breeze today.
Confidence in sea breeze convection is low but worth mentioning.
Similar conditions are expected tomorrow.
Overpeck
&&
FXUS64 KHGX 031730
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1230 PM CDT Tue Sep 3 2019
.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...
Overall expecting there to be VFR conditions for the next 24 to 30
hours with northeast to east winds. Winds should decrease tonight
and then increase again during the day tomorrow. Any thunderstorm
chances will be confined to the coast but we may need to keep an
eye out for an isolated storm that forms on the sea breeze today.
Confidence in sea breeze convection is low but worth mentioning.
Similar conditions are expected tomorrow.
Overpeck
&&
-
Texaspirate11
- Posts: 1278
- Joined: Tue Dec 31, 2013 12:24 am
- Contact:
TD7 now FERNAND
Just because you're disabled, you don't have to be a victim
Be Weather Aware & Prepared!
Barbara Jordan Winner in Media
Disability Integration Consultant
Be Weather Aware & Prepared!
Barbara Jordan Winner in Media
Disability Integration Consultant
Abaco flyover: https://twitter.com/flstorms/status/1168936550874460163 found via Piotrowski's Twitter feed
for comparison, about 14 seconds in the twitter video, you can see their new radar dome/tower (looks pretty much ok, or at least not decimated?) it's around the time the guy says "Abaco Air, gone"
this youtube video posted Feb 2019 shows the radar tower also, and the airport/runway, unflooded - so I believe the above post is good info https://youtu.be/iweVeZ0h7J8
for comparison, about 14 seconds in the twitter video, you can see their new radar dome/tower (looks pretty much ok, or at least not decimated?) it's around the time the guy says "Abaco Air, gone"
this youtube video posted Feb 2019 shows the radar tower also, and the airport/runway, unflooded - so I believe the above post is good info https://youtu.be/iweVeZ0h7J8
Jonathan Petramala https://twitter.com/jpetramala/status/1 ... 2452911105
about 1:15 in, "... what appeared to be a hospital or school where people have sought shelter, those appear to be in really good shape as well..."
article here, on AccuWeather: https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather- ... n/70009239
about 1:15 in, "... what appeared to be a hospital or school where people have sought shelter, those appear to be in really good shape as well..."
article here, on AccuWeather: https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather- ... n/70009239
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