September 2019 - Warm End of September

[Cpv17]

12z Euro is coming in stronger.

[DoctorMu]

FWIW the 0z and 12z CMC are very aggressive with rainfall due to showing a "core" rain event over the area, just something to watch.

Yeah, each model is sticking to it's guns over the last 18 hours:

Canadian: HGX deluge 12+ inches
ICON: strong east of I-45 solution
GFS: significant rain from Houston - west.
Euro: daily seabreeze - heaviest rain between HOU and Corpus, then heavy rain heads toward Austin on Thursday, and eventually DFW.

GEFS Ensemble: limited rain
GEPS: middle solution, about 3 in of rain


It will be Nowcasting soon enough.

[Cpv17]

Slightly stronger than the 0z run. Pretty decent vorticity coming into around Corpus.

[jasons2k]

WPC gives me a whopping .50”

Hopefully that goes up.

[srainhoutx]

Euro show the steering flow collapses over Texas this week. The end results could be some healthy beneficial rainfall totals across the Region.

[DoctorMu]

12z Euro is coming in stronger.

Wetter and East-er.

[DoctorMu]

Euro show the steering flow collapses over Texas this week. The end results could be some healthy beneficial rainfall totals across the Region.

A lot more coverage on this Euro run.

[Cpv17]

WPC gives me a whopping .50”

Hopefully that goes up.

I think there’s a pretty good chance that will significantly increase on their next update.

[stormlover]

Yep still have a whole 24 hours to really nail it down

[DoctorMu]

Tuesday looking better on ECMWF

https://i.imgur.com/KOJfZEY.png



but then again, be careful what you wish for! Feast or Famine. Welcome to Texas weather!

[stormlover]

I’m interested to see the ensembles

[srainhoutx]

Tuesday looking better on ECMWF

https://i.imgur.com/KOJfZEY.png

Check out the rainfall totals through Friday evening into the wee hours of next Saturday via the Euro. 25+ inches not too far from College Station.

[don]

12z EURO looks similar to the CMC now...

[Cpv17]

12z Euro looks like a 26” bullseye out near the Hallettsville/Schulenburg area.

[Ptarmigan]

I looked at the forecast model.
https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/te ... 0000z.html

Canadian 28 inches over Houston area
GFS has scattered rain
EURO has nearly 20 inches over North Texas
ICON has over 19 inches northeast of Houston
UK has over 13 inches south of Houston
French has scattered rain

4 of 6 have heavy rain. Something to ponder.

[Cpv17]

I looked at the forecast model.
https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/te ... 0000z.html

Canadian 28 inches over Houston area
GFS has scattered rain
EURO has nearly 20 inches over North Texas
ICON has over 19 inches northeast of Houston
UK has over 13 inches south of Houston
French has scattered rain

4 of 6 have heavy rain. Something to ponder.

Euro has 25”+ west of Houston.

[stormlover]

Yeah seems like if shifting little bit more towards Houston area so maybe it’s a trend so we shall see

[Kingwood36]

When is the rain suppose to start

[stormlover]

Tons more euro ensembles show this has a depression or trop storm now

[Cpv17]

When is the rain suppose to start

Probably around Tuesday.