September 2019 - Warm End of September

[jasons2k]

I have a hunch next week will be another hot and dry one

[srainhoutx]

National Hurricane Center‏Verified account @NHC_Atlantic · 16m16 minutes ago

NHC will initiate advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine near the Bahamas at 5 pm EDT.

[srainhoutx]

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
500 PM EDT Thu Sep 12 2019

The disturbance in the southeastern Bahamas has not developed a
closed circulation yet, but the cloud pattern is gradually becoming
better organized. An Air Force plane is currently approaching the
disturbance, and will give NHC more details on the structure of the
system. Advisories are being initiated on this system as a
Potential Tropical Cyclone to allow for the issuance of a tropical
storm warning for a portion of the northwest Bahamas after
consultation with the meteorological service of that country.

The system is still under the influence of strong shear caused by an
upper-level low in the Gulf of Mexico. As the disturbance moves away
from the upper low, conditions are expected to be a little more
conducive for development as indicated in the intensity forecast.
With the exception of the GFS, which forecasts a vigorous trough
crossing Florida into the Gulf of Mexico, the remainder of the
global models develop a tropical cyclone near the northwestern
Bahamas and move it as an intensifying system very close to the east
coast of Florida. The NHC forecast opted for the solution of these
latter models, however, it is emphasized that given the model
discrepancy, both the track and intensity forecasts are highly
uncertain, more than usual I would say.

Key Messages:

1. The disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm and bring
tropical storm force winds to portions of the northwest Bahamas
within 36 hours. As a result, advisories have been initiated on
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine. Note that forecast uncertainty for
these disturbances is generally larger than for tropical cyclones,
especially beyond 48-72 hours.

2. The system is expected to bring tropical-storm-force winds and
heavy rainfall to portions of the northwest Bahamas on Friday and
Saturday. Significant storm surge is not expected in the northwest
Bahamas from this system. Residents there should follow any advice
given by local officials.

3. The system could bring tropical-storm-force winds and rainfall
to portions of the Florida east coast over the weekend. Residents
there should monitor the progress of this system.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/2100Z 23.7N 74.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 13/0600Z 24.5N 76.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 13/1800Z 25.5N 77.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H 14/0600Z 26.5N 78.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 14/1800Z 27.5N 80.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 15/1800Z 30.0N 82.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 16/1800Z 31.0N 82.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 17/1800Z 31.5N 80.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER

$$
Forecaster Avila

[Cpv17]

09122019 5 PM PTC 9 204713_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png


Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
500 PM EDT Thu Sep 12 2019

The disturbance in the southeastern Bahamas has not developed a
closed circulation yet, but the cloud pattern is gradually becoming
better organized. An Air Force plane is currently approaching the
disturbance, and will give NHC more details on the structure of the
system. Advisories are being initiated on this system as a
Potential Tropical Cyclone to allow for the issuance of a tropical
storm warning for a portion of the northwest Bahamas after
consultation with the meteorological service of that country.

The system is still under the influence of strong shear caused by an
upper-level low in the Gulf of Mexico. As the disturbance moves away
from the upper low, conditions are expected to be a little more
conducive for development as indicated in the intensity forecast.
With the exception of the GFS, which forecasts a vigorous trough
crossing Florida into the Gulf of Mexico, the remainder of the
global models develop a tropical cyclone near the northwestern
Bahamas and move it as an intensifying system very close to the east
coast of Florida. The NHC forecast opted for the solution of these
latter models, however, it is emphasized that given the model
discrepancy, both the track and intensity forecasts are highly
uncertain, more than usual I would say.

Key Messages:

1. The disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm and bring
tropical storm force winds to portions of the northwest Bahamas
within 36 hours. As a result, advisories have been initiated on
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine. Note that forecast uncertainty for
these disturbances is generally larger than for tropical cyclones,
especially beyond 48-72 hours.

2. The system is expected to bring tropical-storm-force winds and
heavy rainfall to portions of the northwest Bahamas on Friday and
Saturday. Significant storm surge is not expected in the northwest
Bahamas from this system. Residents there should follow any advice
given by local officials.

3. The system could bring tropical-storm-force winds and rainfall
to portions of the Florida east coast over the weekend. Residents
there should monitor the progress of this system.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/2100Z 23.7N 74.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 13/0600Z 24.5N 76.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 13/1800Z 25.5N 77.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H 14/0600Z 26.5N 78.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 14/1800Z 27.5N 80.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 15/1800Z 30.0N 82.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 16/1800Z 31.0N 82.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 17/1800Z 31.5N 80.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER

$$
Forecaster Avila

That’s depressing for us.

[Rip76]

So depressing. Booo

[srainhoutx]

Subsidence from the approaching mid/upper low over the Eastern Gulf should keep showers/storms away for the next couple of days. That mid/upper air feature will continue to meander West as we end the Weekend and possibly increase our rain chances Sunday into Monday. A couple of the computer models attempt to spin something up near the Texas Coast before it pushes inland. This time of year it is worth monitoring for any sneaky last minute possible tropical development. Today is the Anniversary for another quick spin up Hurricane named Humberto in 2007. It is also the Anniversary for Hurricane Ike making landfall in 2008.

[jasons2k]

Funny how you see storms bubbling-up off the Texas coast in the middle of the dry air, in the dark blue.

I just hope it brings just some rain.

[srainhoutx]

For those tracking the Tropics, the NHC has designated the area of disturbed weather to the West of the Cabo Verde Islands in the Central Atlantic as 96L.

[Texaspirate11]

I"M GOING to the Caribbean next week, should be VERY interesting!

[Texaspirate11]

FROM OUR HOUSTON/GX DISCO

TROPICAL...
Potential tropical cyclone Nine advisories continue with the
system in the Bahamas moving northwest. Model trends appear to be
a little more consistent with keeping this in the Atlantic to the
east of FL/SC so no impacts expected here. A couple of other
systems in the Central and Eastern Tropical Atlantic get steered
west and northwest by the Azores high before it weakens and
troughing off the East Coast snags these taking them out as `fish`
storms. Pressures do remain near normal or just slightly
suppressed over the Southern Gulf/Southwestern Caribbean but as of
yet not favorable for any development not to mention TX protected
with the with upper ridging over TX.

On a different tropical note...
Today is the anniversary of both Hurricane Ike 2008 and Humberto
2007.

[Cpv17]

Well now I see the Euro & GFS are both looking promising lol flip flop.

[jasons2k]

I"M GOING to the Caribbean next week, should be VERY interesting!

Wow, you are brave! I no longer plan beach trips or cruises during August or September. I’ve had some bad experiences those months. Started going in June and the weather has been perfect, and the water temp. & humidity are not yet oppressive..

[Texaspirate11]

I live on the edge Jasons... maybe get some rain

[jasons2k]

I woke up to 0% chance of rain today. Wouldn’t it be ironic if I got rain today - and got nothing on Monday when it was 60%??

[Scott747]

If you glanced at the satellite imagery and didn't know any better you might think ptc 9 is in the gulf and not the Bahamas.

[jasons2k]

Darn outflow probably just ruined it for me.
Lots of storms to the north and east (where it was supposed to be dry today).

My heart just fluttered when I checked my forecast and saw a 50% chance of rain on Sunday.....then I realized I was looking at Indian Rocks Beach, Fl, my 2nd home. Oops.

[Rip76]

My heart just fluttered when I checked my forecast and saw a 50% chance of rain on Sunday.....then I realized I was looking at Indian Rocks Beach, Fl, my 2nd home. Oops.

Nice Humblebrag

[Cpv17]

The 12z Euro has anywhere from 1 to 7” across southeast TX over the next 10 days. Lesser amounts on the NW side and higher amounts towards the coast.

[jasons2k]

It might be wishful thinking, but MSN Weather shows an 80% chance of rain on Tuesday and Wednesday with a high in the 80s.

It says data from “Foreca” - whatever that is.

Edit: Wikipedia says it’s a private Finnish company and has had a contract with Microsoft since 2004. I wonder if the forecasts are just computer-generated.

[jasons2k]

The storm cometh, but the outflow outruneth... 0.00