September 2019 - Warm End of September

[cperk]

48 hours without G-IV data likely impacted the ability to fully understand the upper air dynamics for Dorian. The G-IV is sampling now after some sort of incident that apparently did damage to the windshields of that aircraft.

What's your take srain is that west shift lurking.

[srainhoutx]

I've never been comfortable with the OTS scenario beyond 3 days. My personal experience in the Lower Keys back in 2005 with Katrina is a lesson I will not soon forget.

[cperk]

I've never been comfortable with the OTS scenario beyond 3 days. My personal experience in the Lower Keys back in 2005 with Katrina is a lesson I will not soon forget.

srain i did not know you rode out Katrina.The stories you must have.

[jasons2k]

No chance of rain in my forecast for the next 7 days.

[srainhoutx]

I've never been comfortable with the OTS scenario beyond 3 days. My personal experience in the Lower Keys back in 2005 with Katrina is a lesson I will not soon forget.

srain i did not know you rode out Katrina.The stories you must have.

I thought I was all weather savoy with all the fancy models and satellite imagery. West Palm Beach was the call 24 hours out for landfall...but then Katrina had a mind of her own and decided Brevard and Miami/Dade Counties with a SW jog and strengthening would be the path. I spent the late night doing preparations that normally would have been long completed living on an Island 90 miles from Havana. Somewhere I have pictures of the surge and heavy rainfall flooding that hit Key West with its brush some 40 miles to the North in Florida Bay.

Edit:
I found those old Katrina experience pictures from Key West!

[Andrew]

When I see other Mets on S2K posting upper level winds like this I don't see why the sharp turn north is in the cards. Seems like it would shoot the gap.

That is upper-level wind flow right now but that will evolve over the next couple of days. Steering flow is currently WNW but as the trough breaks down so will steering. Eventually, as that occurs building ridging over the SW Atlantic paired with the trough over the Eastern United States will lift it north. The sounding I attached is averaged over the region and you can see how upper-level steering favors a NE track. The key will be how far west does it get before this happens.

[DoctorMu]

While I don't think Florida is clear of this storm yet, for those who are interested I created a trend gif (click on the image below so it plays) of the GFS to show why models are trending east over the last day. Keep an eye on the trough over Quebec into the Northeast United States, because models have trended stronger and deeper making all the difference. In the previous couple of days, models have actually indicated a weak (relatively flat) ridge would setup over the SE United States this weekend behind the trough but that is no longer the case anymore. The trough is now much deeper and breaking down any attempt for a blocking pattern. This is why the speed of Dorian has increased slightly, but more importantly, it does not track as far west. This will be something we need to monitor going tomorrow and Monday to see if models continue this trend or start to walk back west some. It also shows the importance of increased sounding data and resolution and how much influence it can have.

Canadian, HWRF, , and now GFS have Dorian hugging the coast from Palm Beach north. Landfall briefly at Cape Canaveral, the Georgia. Trending ever so slightly westeward. We'll see what the 0z runs bring. We've getting close to nowcasting time. The crawl over the next 3 days will be excruciating.

[DoctorMu]

Dropsonde winds of 155 kt at the surface, but NHC sticks with ultra CAT 4 for now.

Scary MPAS model:

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1 ... 86497?s=20

[Cromagnum]

Looks to (still) be making a beeline to Central Florida.

[unome]

sunrise on category 5 Dorian - eye on long range US radar

http://tempest.aos.wisc.edu/radar/se3comphtml5.html

sunrise sept 1 - Copy.jpg

[Montgomery]

Cat 5! Wow. Slight westward shift as well.

[Texaspirate11]

God bless the Bahamas

[srainhoutx]

Dorian now has winds of 175 MPH...Josh Morgerman and Jim Ebbs are on the Abaco Islands intercepting Dorian...


Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
930 AM EDT Sun Sep 01 2019

...CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 DORIAN CONTINUING TO INTENSIFY AS IT
APPROACHES THE ABACO ISLANDS...

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that Dorian has continued to intensify, and now has maximum
sustained winds near 175 mph (280 km/h), with a minimum central
pressure of 922 mb (27.23 inches).

The eyewall of catastrophic Hurricane Dorian is currently reaching
the Abaco Islands. This is a life-threatening situation. Residents
there should take immediate shelter. Do not venture into the eye if
it passes over your location.

Hazards:
- Wind Gusts over 200 mph
- Storm Surge 15 to 20 feet above normal tide levels with higher
destructive waves

These hazards will cause extreme destruction in the affected areas.
and will continue for several hours.


SUMMARY OF 930 AM EDT...1330 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.5N 76.6W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM ENE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...175 MPH...280 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...922 MB...27.73 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brennan/Blake/Zelinsky/Avila

[TexasBreeze]

175 mph special nhc update. Eye wall in range of NWS radar on the doorstep of Abaco Islands.

https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar_l ... Z&loop=yes

[srainhoutx]

RECON still finding higher winds and dropping pressures as they make center passes through the eyewall.

[DoctorMu]

175 mph winds, gusting to 200 mph. That's a day long EF-4 tornado, folks. Take care northern Bahamas! 06z ICON fwiw puting the eyewall on Ft. Lauderdale.

Unbelievable presentation in the Atlantic Basin:



https://youtu.be/6RuhYgn41ms

[Rip76]

Wow. Not much more to say.

On a side note, Linder’s GOM e-mail this morning was depressing, but I’ll take it over facing a Cat. 5 any day.

[ccbluewater]

Unbelievable what Dorian is doing. Pressure still just dropping like a rock! I'd be extremely nervous on the Florida coast right now.

[cperk]

180 winds now.

[srainhoutx]

Hurricane Watch and Storm Surge Watch up for N of Deerfield Beach to the Volusia/Brevard County Line along the Florida East Coast.