September 2019 - Warm End of September

[DoctorMu]

Message: NOAA-NWS-ALERTS-TX125D1090E5F0.FlashFloodWarning.125D10915B20TX.HGXFFWHGX.09fbb16f627679a4f6a74852f1070878 from w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov
Sent: 14:00 CDT on 09-19-2019
Effective: 14:00 CDT on 09-19-2019
Expires: 17:00 CDT on 09-19-2019
Event: Flash Flood Warning
Alert:
...FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR PORTIONS OF MONTGOMERY, LIBERTY,
CHAMBERS, AND NORTHEAST HARRIS COUNTIES...
The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
Southwestern San Jacinto County in southeastern Texas...
Southeastern Montgomery County in southeastern Texas...
Chambers County in southeastern Texas...
Liberty County in southeastern Texas...
Northeastern Harris County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 500 PM CDT.

* At 156 PM CDT, emergency management reported heavy rain across the
warned area. Life threatening flash flooding is already occurring.
Numerous areas have roads closed, water in structures, flooded
highways and possible high water rescues.
THIS IS A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR PORTIONS OF MONTGOMERY,
LIBERTY, CHAMBERS, AND NORTHEAST HARRIS COUNTIES. THIS IS A
PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW!

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Conroe, Humble, Liberty, Cleveland, Dayton, Willis, Kingwood,
Spring, Crosby, northern Mont Belvieu, Anahuac, Panorama Village,
Splendora, Patton Village, Roman Forest, Woodbranch, Old
River-Winfree, Cut And Shoot, Ames and Daisetta.
Instructions: Move to higher ground now. This is an extremely dangerous and life-threatening situation. Do not attempt to travel unless you are fleeing an area subject to flooding or under an evacuation order. Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Stay away or be swept away. River banks and culverts can become unstable and unsafe.
Target Area:
Chambers
Harris
Liberty
Montgomery
San Jacinto

[srainhoutx]

Not liking the medium/longer range guidance AT ALL...sigh

Come on with it. I've only gotten just under 4" but would love it to stop seeing all the devastation around me

At least a surge or two of deep tropical moisture of the Gulf and a weak frontal boundary dropping down later next week. More later.

[srainhoutx]

The Flash Flood Emergency that DoctorMu posted is a Re Issue from earlier...just so folks know this isn't something new. It extends that current Flood Warning

[CAK]

Do we know what the models are predicting with our current situation and when this will be over?

[srainhoutx]

Do we know what the models are predicting with our current situation and when this will be over?

Looks like the heavy stuff here in SE Texas will shift away tonight. Fingers crossed for a much calmer Friday and weekend!

[Belmer]

Buffalo Bayou now out of its banks. Watching for more storms firing to the NW, might see a resurgence of another feeder band develop...

2220.png (11.62 KiB) Viewed 4188 times

[Cpv17]

Beginning to see some new development over Wharton County now.

[Ounce]

Buffalo Bayou now out of its banks. Watching for more storms firing to the NW, might see a resurgence of another feeder band develop...


2220.png

And this is with both Addicks and Barker Dam flood gates closed.

[Belmer]

Buffalo Bayou now out of its banks. Watching for more storms firing to the NW, might see a resurgence of another feeder band develop...


2220.png

And this is with both Addicks and Barker Dam flood gates closed.

Good news in that both Addicks and Barker are well within their reservoirs. No plan to release water into the bayous at this time.

[Ounce]

Radar appears to show a collision over Hungerford on SW Frwy with the cells from the southwest and the NNW to SSE train is about to happen.

[cperk]

I had to drive down town to pick up my wife because Metro suspended service.I've received 3.4 inches today and a total of 5.4 in the last 3 days.

[unome]

https://www.harriscountyfws.org/

this map has already changed in the few minutes since I downloaded the screenshot - check the link for your current conditions

[Cpv17]

Yes. I was just about to post this. The new development over Wharton County is going to feed right into the main band. Bad situation setting up.

[Kingwood36]

Damn! Radar is popping again! Will this ever end!?!?!

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
216 PM CDT THU SEP 19 2019

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
GALVESTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
EAST CENTRAL BRAZORIA COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL CHAMBERS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 415 PM CDT.

* AT 210 PM CDT, EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE
WARNED AREA. FLASH FLOODING IS ALREADY OCCURRING. SECTIONS OF
BROADWAY AVENUE IN GALVESTON WAS UNDER WATER WITH SECTIONS OF
HARBOURSIDE ARE IMPASSABLE. THERE ARE ALSO REPORTS OF RISING WATER
ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF THE CITY OF GALVESTON. HIGHWAY 87 ON
BOLIVAR IS ALSO BEING IMPACTED WITH RECENT REPORTS OF WASHUP
OCCURRING FROM CRYSTAL BEACH UP THE COAST TOWARDS CAPLEN. HOURLY
RAINFALL RATES WILL RANGE FROM AROUND AN INCH TO NEAR 3 INCHES PER
HOUR THROUGH 4 PM. THE ISLAND HAS ALREADY PICKED UP OVER A FOOT OF
RAIN AND AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
GALVESTON CAUSEWAY, GALVESTON ISLAND WEST END, TEXAS CITY, ALVIN,
LA MARQUE, SANTA FE, HITCHCOCK, GALVESTON PIER 21, BAYOU VISTA,
JAMAICA BEACH, TIKI ISLAND, HILLCREST, LIVERPOOL, SCHOLES FIELD,
PORT BOLIVAR, OFFATTS BAYOU, GALVESTON PLEASURE PIER, PELICAN
ISLAND, GALVESTON STATE PARK AND CRYSTAL BEACH.

[Kingwood36]

Im getting water in my apartment in Kingwood

[sau27]

Craving a new WPC discussion.

[DoctorMu]

Message: NOAA-NWS-ALERTS-TX125D1090ED5C.FloodWarning.125D10CD3D98TX.HGXFLSHGX.33511458949ce67a27d3392e1591e4b1 from w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov
Sent: 14:19 CDT on 09-19-2019
Effective: 07:30 CDT on 09-20-2019
Expires: 09:46 CDT on 09-23-2019
Event: Flood Warning
Alert:
A river flood warning remains in effect for the Trinity River.

...Flood Warning extended until Monday morning... The Flood Warning continues
for
The Trinity River at Liberty

* from Friday morning to Monday morning or until the warning is canceled.

* At 0115 PM Thursday the stage was 18.2 feet.

* Moderate flooding is forecast.

* Flood stage is 26.0 feet.

* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by tomorrow morning and continue to rise to
near 28.5 feet by Saturday evening. The river will fall below flood stage by
Sunday before midnight.

* At 29.0 feet...Major lowland flooding begins as homes in several subdivisions
above Liberty begin flooding. Extensive flooding over much of Liberty County
can be expected with each incremental rise in the river.

* At 27.0 feet...Moderate lowland flooding begins as roads into
several outlying communities above Liberty are closed with
residents in 5 or 6 subdivisions cut off if not evacuated.

* At 26.5 feet...Roads into some outlying communities above the gage
can have up to one foot of water over them.

* At 26.0 feet...Minor lowland flooding begins and significant
lowland flooding in the vicinity of the gage can be expected as
roads into some outlying communities above the gage begin to
flood.
&&
Flood Observed Forecast 6 PM
Location Stage Stage Day Time Fri Sat Sun Mon
Trinity River
Liberty 26.0 18.2 Thu 01 PM 21.4 27.7 28.5 26.6
&&
Instructions: Persons are urged to stay away from the river until water levels recede. Motorists should avoid any water covered roads and find an alternate route. Livestock and equipment should remain out of the flood plain for the next few days. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather radio or other news sources for further updates.
Target Area:
Liberty

[sau27]

Starting to lose some confidence in the HRRR's handling of this evolution given how it is verifying against radar now.

[unome]

Craving a new WPC discussion.

next one should be 4PM CDT https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/