September 2019 - Warm End of September

[srainhoutx]

I’ve been just lurking for a long while folks but my Harvey ptsd is kicking in. Sorry i know the answer is likely a wishcasting type of scenario but I’m a little more freaked out now that I have a baby to worry about and not just myself but...

How do impacts as far as for flooding look for the South League City area like near the NWS office? Will the rain happen mostly at once or over an extended period? Are we looking at house flooding or street flooding mostly?

My street can handle more than a few inches over an extended period but not at once. I got 24” in Harvey and only 4” in my home.

Hey Seantx81! You are not alone with some form of ptsd kicking in and we certainly understand your concerns. Fortunately the rain bands have remained under control and typical flood prone streets and roadways are the current primary concern. I do not believe we are facing another Harvey Flood episode, but we certainly could see to flooding issues. The problem is we really just do not know where and exactly when any given location may see that very heavy rain. Hang in there and feel free to check in anytime.

[stormlover]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1712&fh=48


here is the WRFmodel

[Cpv17]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1712&fh=48


here is the WRFmodel

I like this WRF model more

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1712&fh=48

[stormlover]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1712&fh=48


here is the WRFmodel

I like this WRF model more

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1712&fh=48

the center came to far west on that one.

[Seantx81]

I’ve been just lurking for a long while folks but my Harvey ptsd is kicking in. Sorry i know the answer is likely a wishcasting type of scenario but I’m a little more freaked out now that I have a baby to worry about and not just myself but...

How do impacts as far as for flooding look for the South League City area like near the NWS office? Will the rain happen mostly at once or over an extended period? Are we looking at house flooding or street flooding mostly?

My street can handle more than a few inches over an extended period but not at once. I got 24” in Harvey and only 4” in my home.

Hey Seantx81! You are not alone with some form of ptsd kicking in and we certainly understand your concerns. Fortunately the rain bands have remained under control and typical flood prone streets and roadways are the current primary concern. I do not believe we are facing another Harvey Flood episode, but we certainly could see to flooding issues. The problem is we really just do not know where and exactly when any given location may see that very heavy rain. Hang in there and feel free to check in anytime.

Thanks Srain I’ve been around on the old board since Katrina so I already know these answers but like I said PTSD is starting to kick in. Might be up a lot tonight.

[Cpv17]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1712&fh=48


here is the WRFmodel

I like this WRF model more

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1712&fh=48

the center came to far west on that one.

It’s more in line with the other models though regarding placement of the highest qpf imo.

[Rip76]

Stafford area/Beltway getting hammered.

[srainhoutx]

I’ve been just lurking for a long while folks but my Harvey ptsd is kicking in. Sorry i know the answer is likely a wishcasting type of scenario but I’m a little more freaked out now that I have a baby to worry about and not just myself but...

How do impacts as far as for flooding look for the South League City area like near the NWS office? Will the rain happen mostly at once or over an extended period? Are we looking at house flooding or street flooding mostly?

My street can handle more than a few inches over an extended period but not at once. I got 24” in Harvey and only 4” in my home.

Hey Seantx81! You are not alone with some form of ptsd kicking in and we certainly understand your concerns. Fortunately the rain bands have remained under control and typical flood prone streets and roadways are the current primary concern. I do not believe we are facing another Harvey Flood episode, but we certainly could see to flooding issues. The problem is we really just do not know where and exactly when any given location may see that very heavy rain. Hang in there and feel free to check in anytime.

Thanks Srain I’ve been around on the old board since Katrina so I already know these answers but like I said PTSD is starting to kick in. Might be up a lot tonight.

I know you've been around since the old days. I'm sure we'll be up right along with you.

[stormlover]

I like this WRF model more

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1712&fh=48

the center came to far west on that one.

It’s more in line with the other models though regarding placement of the highest qpf imo.

I don' think but we shall see, I think the euro, Ukmet has a pretty good grasp blended in with the GFS

[sau27]

Maybe my eyes are deceiving me but the center seems to be moving north quicker than I anticipated.

[Cpv17]

the center came to far west on that one.

It’s more in line with the other models though regarding placement of the highest qpf imo.

I don' think but we shall see, I think the euro, Ukmet has a pretty good grasp blended in with the GFS

The model you put out there has like a quarter inch for me and the one I put has like 5” for me. Which one do you think I like more? Lol

[stormlover]

It’s more in line with the other models though regarding placement of the highest qpf imo.

I don' think but we shall see, I think the euro, Ukmet has a pretty good grasp blended in with the GFS

The model you put out there has like a quarter inch for me and the one I put has like 5” for me. Which one do you think I like more? Lol

blend it in

[jasons2k]

I think the real key for the Houston area is if this starts to drift more NNW later tonight into tomorrow as the NHC track implies.

I know we often preach that the line (forecast track) itself doesn’t matter, but in this case it does and it matters a lot.

I’ll be watching closely for any shifts in the track either direction.

[Cpv17]

I don' think but we shall see, I think the euro, Ukmet has a pretty good grasp blended in with the GFS

The model you put out there has like a quarter inch for me and the one I put has like 5” for me. Which one do you think I like more? Lol

blend it in

I’m pretty much over it at this point man lol I’ve already accepted the fact that this won’t be much of an event for my area. Happy for my east neighbors on here though. Hoping no one gets too much.

[don]

Heavy rain is starting to move into the Houston area as a feeder band looks to be forming.

[Seantx81]

Already high water between Blackhawk and Beamer on Scarsdale.

[jasons2k]

I’m surprised no Flash Flood or Urban/Stream warmings yet, especially with that band near Pearland. Geez it’s really dumping down there now.

[jasons2k]

The track did shift east slightly.

[srainhoutx]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
345 PM CDT TUE SEP 17 2019

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING]...
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IMELDA PUSHED ONSHORE EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON NEAR THE CITY OF FREEPORT. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OF 1010 MB ALONG THE COAST SLOWLY MOVING NORTH
AND FURTHER INLAND. BETWEEN 2 TO NEARLY 4 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN
OVER SOUTHERN HARRIS AND NORTHERN GALVESTON COUNTIES OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER
HAS NOT CHANGED, WITH HEAVY RAINFALL STILL IN THE FORECAST OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WPC IS CONTINUING TO
OUTLOOK PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MATAGORDA, A MAJORITY OF BRAZORIA
COUNTY, SOUTHERN FORT BEND AND HARRIS COUNTY, GALVESTON COUNTY, AND
THE WESTERN REACHES OF CHAMBERS COUNTY, WITH A MODERATE RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL COME IN ROUNDS DEPENDING ON
HOW THE CONVECTIVE BANDS ORGANIZE AND PUSH INLAND. WHERE THE
RAINFALL PILES UP AND JUST HOW MUCH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
CRITICALLY DEPENDS ON HOW THE CENTER OF THIS SYSTEM TRACKS. WHAT WE
DO KNOW FOR SURE IS THAT THERE WILL BE AMPLE TROPICAL MOISTURE IN
PLACE AND STRONG SIGNALS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL, STRETCHING FROM
MATAGORDA COUNTY UP THROUGH HARRIS INTO LIBERTY COUNTY AND SOUTH
TO THE COAST, WHERE THE BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE. WITH 850 MB WINDS PUMPING BETWEEN 25 TO 30
KNOTS, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE ADVECTED ACROSS SE
TX THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THIS REGION REACHING UP TO 2.5 TO 2.8
INCHES LATER THIS EVENING, WITH STILL DECENT MOISTURE TO THE
NORTH, WITH 2.3 INCHES FORECAST AT COLLEGE STATION. IN TERMS OF
THE SHORT TERM MODELS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THERE IS DECENT
AGREEMENT THAT THERE SHOULD BE A LULL IN ACTIVITY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. LATE THIS EVENING, SHOWERS
WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REDEVELOP ONCE AGAIN STARTING
ALONG THE COAST AND SPREADING FURTHER INLAND. AT THIS TIME, THE
NEXT WAVE OF HEAVY RAINFALL LOOKS TO OCCUR SOMETIME BETWEEN 3 AM
AND NOON TOMORROW, MAINLY IMPACTING PORTIONS OF MATAGORDA TO
HARRIS AND LIBERTY COUNTY AND SOUTHWARD. THE TIMING OF THIS NEXT
ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN COULD CAUSE IMPACTS TO TOMORROW'S MORNING
COMMUTE/RUSH HOUR. IF YOU EXPECT TO BE TRAVELING ON THE ROADWAYS
TOMORROW MORNING DURING THIS TIME, PLEASE PLAN ACCORDINGLY! MAKE
SURE TO CHECK DRIVETEXAS.ORG FOR ANY ROAD CLOSURES DUE TO HIGH
WATER ON ROADWAYS BEFORE TRAVELING, AND REMEMBER TO NEVER DRIVE
THROUGH FLOODED UNDERPASSES OR ROADWAYS. HIGH WATER OR IMPASSIBLE
ROADWAYS MAY BE HARDER TO DETERMINE IN THE DARK, SO USE CAUTION!

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY 1 PM. WE
WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON BOTH MODEL AND RADAR TRENDS, BUT I WOULD
ASSUME THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO
PORTIONS OF THURSDAY BASED OFF THE LATEST GUIDANCE. MAKE SURE YOU
KEEP AN EYE ON THE FORECAST AND HAVE MULTIPLE WAYS TO RECEIVE
WARNINGS OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. HATHAWAY

&&

.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...
MID/UPPER LOW, AND POSSIBLY REMNANT CIRCULATION OF IMELDA AND
DEEP MOISTURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND
CONTINUE THE THREAT OF PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
BANDING ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THE GROUND
SHOULD BE INCREASING SATURATED AND MORE PRONE TO QUICK RUNOFF WITH
HIGH RAINFALL RATES, SO DON'T LET YOUR GUARD DOWN.

THE LOW WILL EVENTUALLY BEGIN TO FILL, LIFT NORTH, AND BECOME
ABSORBED IN THE FLOW BETWEEN THE LEE SIDE TROF AND EASTERN RIDGE
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
TAPER OFF EACH OFF AS THAT OCCURS. RIDGE BUILDS IN EARLY NEXT WEEK
WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS. 47

&&

.MARINE...
THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER THAT FORMED INTO TROPICAL STORM IMELDA
PUSHED ONSHORE NEAR FREEPORT THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS AND BAYS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS, GUSTY WINDS
AND ELEVATED SEAS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND STRONGER STORMS. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING ONLY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN NEARSHORE GULF
WATERS AND GALVESTON BAY, AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
FOR THE EASTERN OFFSHORE GULF WATERS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD CONTINUE TO
EXERCISE CAUTION ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF WATERS. MODERATE
ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM WHILE
WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST EAST OF THE CENTER. WIND SPEEDS
WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER TONIGHT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES FURTHER INLAND,
BUT MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL THE END OF THE WEEK. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT FINALLY BEGINS TO WEAKEN ON SUNDAY WITH LIGHTER
WINDS AND DECREASING SEAS.

ADDITIONALLY, TIDE LEVELS ARE CONTINUING TO RUN ABOUT 1.5 TO 2.0
FEET ABOVE NORMAL. AT GALVESTON BAY ENTRANCE, TIDE LEVELS ARE STILL
FORECAST TO PEAK AT 3.0 TO 3.4 FEET ABOVE MLLW DURING HIGH TIDE.
HIGH TIDE VALUES OF THIS NATURE COULD CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. ADDITIONALLY, THE RISK FOR STRONG RIP CURRENTS REMAINS
ALONG GULF FACING BEACHES. HATHAWAY

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ANY RISES ON AREA BAYOUS, CREEKS & RIVERS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
WHERE THE HIGHEST RAIN FALLS AND THEIR HOURLY RATES. WE'LL
OBVIOUSLY MONITOR THEM ALL, BUT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IN THE NEXT
24 HOURS SHOULD BE SOUTHEAST OF THE HIGHWAY 69/59 CORRIDOR. 47

&&

.TROPICAL...
NHC WILL EVALUATE TRENDS, BUT THE HOPE IS THAT TS IMELDA CAN BE
RECLASSIFIED AS A TD LATER THIS EVENING OR TONIGHT. HAZARDS REMAIN
THE SAME REGARDLESS...HEAVY RAINFALL & POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
FLOODING. MAY SEE SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING NEAR TIMES OF HIGH
TIDE AND 35-40KT WIND GUSTS IN BANDS OF PRECIP. 47

[Rip76]

Maybe my eyes are deceiving me but the center seems to be moving north quicker than I anticipated.

I noticed this too. Has to be faster than 7mph.