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sau27 wrote: ↑Thu Aug 22, 2019 1:44 pm Kudos to the 12Z GFS. It brings both a front and a tropical system through here within 3 days of each other at the beginning of September.

Perhaps it's time to start a September Topic. A early Fall cold front AND tropical mischief? What could wrong?

Crazy Tropical clouds looking out toward the Gulf.

That Gulf feature looks like it wants to spin up.

Lovely tropical downpours down here by the bay on and off today. Clouds look awesome!

Texaspirate11 wrote: ↑Thu Aug 22, 2019 5:00 pm Lovely tropical downpours down here by the bay on and off today. Clouds look awesome!

I'm glad you got something down there. Nothing for me, but I did get a brief shower at work...

not a drop cruel dry air

That’s depressing

So nice to see the mid-level low rotating clockwise in the NW GOM this evening.

The slug of tropical moisture is approaching the coastal areas this morning. Showers and thunderstorms will gradually develop further inland as the day progresses with some locally heavy rains possible. Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms can be expected Saturday and Sunday before ridging begin building across SE TX decreasing rain chances.

Friday morning weather briefing from Jeff:

Tropical wave over the NW Gulf of Mexico will move slowly N today allowing a deep tropical air mass to move into the region.

Radar this morning shows numerous showers and thunderstorms over the Gulf waters moving inland across our coastal tier counties. Air mass is very tropical with PWS of 2.1.2-2 inches over the region and GOES sounder showing 2.3-2.5 inches over the Gulf waters. As surface temperatures warm into the mid 80’s expect to see a rapid increase in showers and thunderstorms across much of SE TX. While storm motions will be quick, this air mass will be capable of 1-2 inches of rainfall in less than an hour…maybe even less than 30 minutes which could lead to street flooding. Will need to keep rain chances going tonight along the coast and possibly up to US 59 as moisture continues to stream inland off the Gulf.

Tropical wave moves toward the mouth of the Sabine River on Saturday with high levels of moisture remaining over the area, especially southeast of a line from Victoria to Hempstead to Cleveland. A few of the short range models have been wanting to develop and more concentrate area of heavy thunderstorms between Galveston Bay and Sabine Pass Saturday morning and this will be something to watch as rainfall rates could be fairly excessive in a short period of time.

While moisture levels will be extremely high over the next 48 hours and some heavy rainfall is certainly expected, but at this time widespread flooding is not expected due to the lack of any sort of surface focusing boundary and the overall dry background soil state over the region.

Upper level high pressure begins to build eastward starting on Sunday and this will help to reduce moisture levels and lower rain chances. Fairly typical summer weather Sunday-Tuesday with afternoon storms along the seabreeze before high pressure really clamps down on rain chances by the middle to end of next week and pushes afternoon highs back toward the upper 90’s.

Atlantic Tropics:

98L:
Surface low pressure has formed off the SE FL coast overnight as noted by radar images from Miami and surface observations in the area. This feature is drifting toward the west and will likely move inland over extreme southern FL or the upper FL Keys today and then drift northward over the weekend emerging back/or reforming over the Atlantic waters east of FL by late in the weekend. Conditions will become increasingly favorable for tropical cyclone formation as the surface low moves NNE/NE along the SE US coast into early next week and there is currently a high (70%) chance that a tropical system will form over the next 5 days.

99L:
A tropical wave midway between the southern Windward Islands and the coast of Africa has become better organized overnight with a scattering of deep convection having developed near/west of the wave axis. Conditions in the tropical Atlantic have become slightly more favorable for the development of such waves over the last few days with a general decrease in the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) and less sinking air. This wave also is starting to get some model support from both the GFS and ECMWF with both showing some additional development of this feature as it moves toward the W/WNW over the next several days. NHC current gives the feature a 20% chance of development through 5 days.

Firing up out there this morning.

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/s ... &length=24

I hope I’m wrong, but this already looks like a bust for folks north of 59...

The WPC does place the best chance of rain along the Coastal tier of Counties and on E toward Beaumont and SW and Central Louisiana. We also have a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall today and again tomorrow with a Slight Risk for portions of Louisiana.

Just by looking out into the Gulf, it looks like the showers are lining up to be east of 45 today for the most part.

See a little spin up SE of Brownsville.

I think

Yeah, our area isn't going to get squat from this.

Frustrating. These little specs that come and go aren’t going to do anything. We need some deep connection to blow-up. Come on!! Geez!!

I'm tired of the rain....y'all can have it.

Just got a nice tropical downpour near downtown. Have also noticed that the 12z Nam suite of models including the Texas tech have shifted the heaviest rains more over Metro Houston tomorrow fwiw.

Some are getting heavy rainfall...

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1249 PM CDT FRI AUG 23 2019

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN GALVESTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
NORTHEASTERN BRAZORIA COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 215 PM CDT.

* AT 1248 PM CDT, DOPPLER RADAR AND AUTOMATED RAIN GAUGES INDICATED
HEAVY RAIN FALLING ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. UP TO THREE INCHES OF
RAIN HAVE ALREADY FALLEN. FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
SHORTLY.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
SOUTHEASTERN PASADENA, LEAGUE CITY, TEXAS CITY, EASTERN
FRIENDSWOOD, DEER PARK, DICKINSON, LA MARQUE, SANTA FE, SEABROOK,
WEBSTER, KEMAH, CLEAR LAKE, EASTERN SOUTH BELT / ELLINGTON, NASSAU
BAY, TAYLOR LAKE VILLAGE, EL LAGO, SHOREACRES, CLEAR LAKE SHORES,
THE JOHNSON SPACE CENTER AND ELLINGTON FIELD.