Wx Infinity Forums

jasons wrote: ↑Tue Aug 20, 2019 2:17 pm Heartbreaking to see so much activity on the radar and it’s doing everything it can to miss me!!

The elm, sycamore and some sweet gums are turning brown and losing their leaves. The sycamore trees at the Imperial Oaks Kroger center are almost completely bare...

Update: another day of nothing.

We're up near Mount Rushmore...heard a major gust from an outflow knocked down some parts of fences, including ours...but only a couple of drops of rain.

Off to Minneapolis. May not come back.

0z euro has shifted the energy of the system currently over the YP more towards the upper tx coast with most of the other models more towards Louisiana.

As of now no development is expected and no mention from the nhc either. Still a shot at some nice soaking rains if the anything further w plays out.

The GFS has been advertising a nice front around the 31st. 06z even has dewpoints in upper 40s. Fingers (and toes, and eyes) crossed.

don't count on it lol

stormlover wrote: ↑Wed Aug 21, 2019 10:52 am don't count on it lol

I don't know. Pretty much every major model is picking up on the deep trough. Some bring extremely abnormal temps and some just wash the humidity and have us a bit below normal.

FXUS64 KHGX 211817
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
117 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019

.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...

VFR conditions will prevail across all TAF sites through the
evening. Some VCSH or VCTS are expected over the next few hours from
IAH and down towards the coast, and then dissipate towards shortly
after 00z. Only concern overnight is some MVFR CIGs at CXO with some
patchy fog. Tomorrow will see more isolated afternoon showers and
thunderstorms impacting mainly the coastal TAF sites in the late
morning, then up towards Houston by the afternoon.

Fowler

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 957 AM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019/...

.DISCUSSION...

Temperatures across southeast Texas are currently in the mid to
upper 80s and are expected to continue to rise up to the low to
upper 90s this afternoon. Passing showers are currently moving
north to northeast across the Gulf waters and will reach the
coastal regions within the hour. Isolated showers have begun to
develop inland across the Chambers and Liberty counties, and
additional development can be expected across Galveston and
Brazoria counties shortly. By late morning and early afternoon,
expect additional showers and thunderstorms developing south of
I-10 and east of I-45, gradually spreading northward by mid to
late afternoon. No significant impacts are expected with this
activity, however, strong showers and thunderstorms will be
capable of producing heavy rainfall, lightning, and brief gusty
winds. With the heavy rainfall, reduced visibility and ponding of
water on roadways is possible. Showers and thunderstorms will
dissipate in the evening, with skies gradually clearing. A light
southerly wind flow will continue across the local region. Only
slight changes were made to the inherited forecast to represent
the current weather and temperature observations.
24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 76 98 76 97 76 / 0 10 0 30 10
Houston (IAH) 79 94 78 93 78 / 20 30 10 50 20
Galveston (GLS) 83 93 84 92 84 / 20 50 50 50 50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

Oh my...

Could this be an early Fall????

Happy days are here again.

Darn srain Christmas came early today with that graphic you posted and a half inch of rain.

I will say a love bug hit my windshield earlier this week.

Rip76 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 21, 2019 4:22 pm I will say a love bug hit my windshield earlier this week.

I have seen a few in the back yard.

Rip76 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 21, 2019 4:22 pm I will say a love bug hit my windshield earlier this week.

The bastard of the Fall.

Lucy strikes again. Had a few drops but that was all - just enough to rub more salt at how close it was....

Was just watching the Accuweather Channel. The showed a graphic of this weekend’s tropical surge. It started at about Freeport and the arced NE to to the south end of Toledo Bend, eastward to Meridian, MS, then closing off down near Cedar Key. Basically the whole Gulf Coast from Galveston to Cedar Key.

And darn it if that edge arcs just along the northern end of Galveston Bay, perhaps just touching the Ship Channel area of Harris County and that’s as close as it gets. Most of the Houston area is just outside of their green painted “moisture surge”...

On the plus side when I went to bed, today’s forecast was “mostly sunny” with no chance of rain.

Now it says “mostly sunny, then a 40% chance of rain.”

Edit - updated at 8am:

A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly between 2pm and 5pm. Increasing clouds, with a high near 95.

MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Wed Aug 21, 2019 4:44 pm

Rip76 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 21, 2019 4:22 pm I will say a love bug hit my windshield earlier this week.

The bastard of the Fall.

Luckily, our love bug population has been down, so far this year. The firefly population has been amazing, though. The night before last, after that big rain we had (~2"), the back of our property was lit up like a Christmas tree!

Thursday morning weather briefing from Jeff:

Rain chances increasing over the next 48 hours.

Deep tropical moisture associated with a tropical wave axis over the western Gulf of Mexico will begin to approach the TX coast later today and spread into the areas south of I-10 on Friday into Saturday. Rain chances and coverage will increase through this period as this deeper tropical moisture spreads into the area. Leading edge of this air mass is already approaching the coast this morning with radar showing scattered showers offshore moving toward the coast and then onshore surviving northward to about US 59. As surface temperatures warm into the upper 80’s and lower 90’s expect to see coverage of showers and thunderstorms increase inland.

Tropical wave will approach the coast on Friday into early Saturday, but never really moves onshore with the bulk of the expected rainfall likely over the Gulf waters and then NNE/NE into southern Louisiana. An upper level trough axis will drop into the area from the north over the weekend and interact with the tropical moisture in place to help focus showers and thunderstorms mainly SE of a line from Wharton to Livingston with likely the greatest coverage around and SE/E of Galveston Bay.

There will be a fairly sharp gradient in the rainfall over the area with areas around College Station likely seeing less than .50 of an inch and areas around Galveston Bay likely seeing 1-2 inches or slightly more. Best rain chances and amounts will be focused near the coast and more likely offshore.

Moisture begins to decrease starting on Sunday as mid and upper level ridge of high pressure attempts to build back in from the west. This will reduce rain chances back to the more common 20-30% along the seabreeze each afternoon.

The way it is currently moving appears like it would provide beneficial rains to most of the Texas Coast.
I guess it will all be blown off to LA?

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/s ... &length=24

Kudos to the 12Z GFS. It brings both a front and a tropical system through here within 3 days of each other at the beginning of September.