Wx Infinity Forums

Thank you Willis Carrier for inventing air conditioning!

https://www.livescience.com/45268-who-i ... oning.html

Pas_Bon wrote: ↑Sun Aug 11, 2019 9:00 pm

MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Sun Aug 11, 2019 8:34 pm

DoctorMu wrote: ↑Sun Aug 11, 2019 8:09 pm

101°F here, after 100°F Friday and Saturday.

I was at Fan Day today in CS. It felt like we were walking on the Sun outside Kyle Field.

‘Twas a nicer day in Baton Rouge ;-P

Pfft...

I'm headed your way tomorrow. I'm in NOLA and BR Tuesday through Thursday for work.

000
FXUS64 KHGX 121442
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
942 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2019

.SHORT TERM...

Upper air analysis at 500mb shows 594/595dm heights over much of
Texas with the ridge so not much change at all from yesterday. So
basically what we had for a forecast yesterday continues to be the
best forecast for today. Heat advisory will continue today and
likely extended another day to Tuesday. For Wednesday we will
probably need a heat advisory one last time as temps should drop
some on Thursday with a frontal boundary in the area.

Overpeck

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 102 79 103 79 101 / 0 0 0 10 30
Houston (IAH) 101 81 101 81 99 / 10 0 10 10 40
Galveston (GLS) 94 84 94 84 95 / 10 0 0 10 30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for the following
zones: Austin...Brazoria Islands...Brazos...Burleson...
Chambers...Coastal Brazoria...Coastal Galveston...Coastal
Harris...Coastal Jackson...Coastal Matagorda...Colorado...
Fort Bend...Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula...
Grimes...Houston...Inland Brazoria...Inland Galveston...
Inland Harris...Inland Jackson...Inland Matagorda...
Madison...Matagorda Islands...Montgomery...Northern
Liberty...Polk...San Jacinto...Southern Liberty...Trinity...
Walker...Waller...Washington...Wharton.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...39

MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Mon Aug 12, 2019 10:41 am

Pas_Bon wrote: ↑Sun Aug 11, 2019 9:00 pm

MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Sun Aug 11, 2019 8:34 pm

I was at Fan Day today in CS. It felt like we were walking on the Sun outside Kyle Field.

‘Twas a nicer day in Baton Rouge ;-P

Pfft...

I'm headed your way tomorrow. I'm in NOLA and BR Tuesday through Thursday for work.

Actually, I'm in Conroe, but those are my old stomping grounds. Safe travels!

Pas_Bon wrote: ↑Mon Aug 12, 2019 11:24 am

MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Mon Aug 12, 2019 10:41 am

Pas_Bon wrote: ↑Sun Aug 11, 2019 9:00 pm

‘Twas a nicer day in Baton Rouge ;-P

Pfft...

I'm headed your way tomorrow. I'm in NOLA and BR Tuesday through Thursday for work.

Actually, I'm in Conroe, but those are my old stomping grounds. Safe travels!

Thank you. Speaking of your name, I used to tailgate with a Krewe at LSU by your name. Before that they were the Krewe of Ragoo.

MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Mon Aug 12, 2019 5:27 pm

Pas_Bon wrote: ↑Mon Aug 12, 2019 11:24 am

MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Mon Aug 12, 2019 10:41 am

Pfft...

I'm headed your way tomorrow. I'm in NOLA and BR Tuesday through Thursday for work.

Actually, I'm in Conroe, but those are my old stomping grounds. Safe travels!

Thank you. Speaking of your name, I used to tailgate with a Krewe at LSU by your name. Before that they were the Krewe of Ragoo.

Same!

Wow .. fantasy land, but still wow

Pas_Bon wrote: ↑Mon Aug 12, 2019 6:47 pm

MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Mon Aug 12, 2019 5:27 pm

Pas_Bon wrote: ↑Mon Aug 12, 2019 11:24 am


Actually, I'm in Conroe, but those are my old stomping grounds. Safe travels!

Thank you. Speaking of your name, I used to tailgate with a Krewe at LSU by your name. Before that they were the Krewe of Ragoo.

Same!

Oh boy. We know a lot of the same people. If you talk to ET1 and ET2, tell them the crazy Aggie said hello. I’ve run into them time to time Friday nights at walk ons before LSU-A&M games

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 12, 2019 6:53 pm Wow .. fantasy land, but still wow

No thanks, we don’t want a cane ruining the opening weekend of CFB in Texas.

MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Mon Aug 12, 2019 8:46 pm

Pas_Bon wrote: ↑Mon Aug 12, 2019 6:47 pm

MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Mon Aug 12, 2019 5:27 pm


Thank you. Speaking of your name, I used to tailgate with a Krewe at LSU by your name. Before that they were the Krewe of Ragoo.

Same!

Oh boy. We know a lot of the same people. If you talk to ET1 and ET2, tell them the crazy Aggie said hello. I’ve run into them time to time Friday nights at walk ons before LSU-A&M games

Wow. Will do! My moniker is the same across the LSU inter webs.

MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Mon Aug 12, 2019 8:47 pm

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 12, 2019 6:53 pm Wow .. fantasy land, but still wow

No thanks, we don’t want a cane ruining the opening weekend of CFB in Texas.

That would be the first Aggie home game -so it would probably happen.

DoctorMu wrote: ↑Tue Aug 13, 2019 1:04 am

MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Mon Aug 12, 2019 8:47 pm

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 12, 2019 6:53 pm Wow .. fantasy land, but still wow

No thanks, we don’t want a cane ruining the opening weekend of CFB in Texas.

That would be the first Aggie home game -so it would probably happen.

That’s Tuesday evening so unless it’s moving really slow, it would probably be fine by tailgate time on Thursday.

000
FXUS64 KHGX 131129
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
629 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2019

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions persist at all terminals through the duration of
the TAF period. Winds remain out of the SW at around 5 to 10 knots
through the morning hours, picking up and shifting S/SE by the
early afternoon. Precipitation is not expected at all sites through
the current period. However, as a surface boundary approaches SE
Texas from the north late tomorrow and into Thursday, some more
widespread SHRA/TSRA coverage is possible. Will need to closely
monitor potential aviation impacts from this feature in later
updates.

Cady

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2019/

SHORT TERM [Today and Tonight]...

The meridional-oriented 594 dam upper ridge whose axis is centered
across the Southern Plains will hang on for one more day. The ridge
is forecast to slowly move back towards western Texas through
today...lower Big Bend surface pressure in relation to Gulf high
pressure will maintain a weak background southerly breeze. As has
been the case for nearly a week, nil POPs with less than a slight
chance for an afternoon heat o` the day coastal county isolated
storm to pop along the sea breeze boundary. Triple digit maximum
temperatures are forecast for a sixth day inland with a second or
third consecutive day for those along and just south of the I-10
corridor. 100 degree heat with upper 60 F(far north) to middle 70 F
(near coastal) dew point temperatures will produce afternoon 106 to
111 F heat indices. Thus, the Heat Advisory continues though 7 PM
today. The cumulative adverse impacts of consecutive day heat,
especially with these very warm and muggy mornings in the 80s, will
begin to take a toll on outdoor workers, the elderly and those that
do not have air conditioning. Be aware of the symptoms of heat-
related illness and be ready to take action if encountering someone
who may succumb to heat exhaustion or heat stroke.

31

LONG TERM [Wednesday through Tuesday]...

Early Wednesday morning, the mid to upper level ridge will begin
to retreat west as an upper level shortwaves moves eastward across
the Great Lakes region. A frontal boundary on the surface is
expected to move into Central Texas Wednesday. Ahead of the
front, a surge in moisture is expected to begin to move into the
local area Wednesday as the frontal boundary makes its way
southward. PWs between 2.0 to 2.3 expected to move across the area
Wednesday morning increasing up to 2.6 inches through Wednesday
night. Maximum temperatures on Wednesday will still range between the
upper 90s to low 100s. With the ridge retreating to the west, the
combination of deep low level moisture, strong diurnal heating as
well as the the proximity of the frontal boundary will likely induce
periods of shower and thunderstorm activity Wednesday. Hi-Res
Precip models indicate some isolated to scattered shower activity
moving across the Gulf waters early Wednesday morning. Shower and
thunderstorm development is expected to increase throughout the
morning and afternoon hours as daytime heating peaks and the deep
low level moisture continues to filter into the local area.

The front is expected to reach the northern portions of southeast
Texas by Wednesday evening/night, moving into the central and
southern portions Thursday. Unfortunately, Global models have yet
to come into full agreement on how strong it will be and how south
the boundary will actually move. The GFS continues to be the most
aggressive but has slightly slowed down the forward motion of the
front compared to the previous model runs. The NAM is just a tad
bit slower than the GFS. The ECMWF continues to displace higher
moisture amounts to the east, placing the strongest convective
activity over the eastern half of southeast Texas into LA.
Thursday night into Friday, the GFS filters in much drier air
compared to the rest of the models, with PWs between 1.0 and 1.7
inches, whereas both the NAM and ECMWF, have deep low level
moisture lingering through Friday (with PWs still above 2.0
inches). In general, expect periods of showers and thunderstorms
Wednesday through Thursday evening. Conditions should improve
Friday, with most of the activity occuring over the Gulf waters
and southern portions of the local area.

During the upcoming weekend into early next week, a summertime
pattern is expected, as the mid to upper level ridge meanders over
the western and central regions of Texas. Look for passing
showers across the Gulf waters and coastal regions late night to
early morning hours and showers and possible thunderstorms
developing in the late morning to afternoon hours each day. High
temperatures in the mid to upper 90s expected during the weekend
and early next week. Lows expected to remain in the mid 70s to
lower 80s at night.

24

MARINE...

An early morning Small Craft Exercise Caution is in effect through
10 AM LT due to a tight enough land-sea pressure gradient keeping S-
SW winds in the 15 to 20 knot range over the 0-20 nm Gulf and
Matagorda Bay waters. Average 2 to 3 foot seas under these winds
will level out to between 1 to 2 feet for the remainder of the week
under a weak sub 10 knot uni-directional breeze. Other than these
slightly more moderate pre-dawn nearshore winds, expect the only
period of double digit (onshore) winds to occur over the weekend. No
tropical activity of note is forecast through the week.

31

CLIMATE...

Low temperature records continue to fall at Galveston. Monday marked
the 5th consecutive day where the daily high minimum temperature
record has been set or tied, with the observed low of 86 beating out
the previous record of 85 from 2011. This also matches the all-time
high minimum temperature record for the site, which was just
recently set during the current heatwave period on August 8. Monday
was also the 7th consecutive day where the observed low
temperature was 84 or greater. This streak is the second longest
on record since observations began in 1874 behind the 9 day period
of August 5-13, 2011.

Palacios once again tied its all-time record for high minimum
temperature at 87, with records dating back to 1943. This was the
7th consecutive day where the low temperature was 84 or above.
Should a low of 84 or higher be observed tomorrow, this streak will
tie the longest on record from July of this year.

Cady

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 101 79 98 78 98 / 0 10 30 30 30
Houston (IAH) 100 81 96 80 96 / 0 10 40 50 50
Galveston (GLS) 94 84 93 82 90 / 0 10 40 50 50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for the following
zones: Austin...Brazoria Islands...Brazos...Burleson...
Chambers...Coastal Brazoria...Coastal Galveston...Coastal
Harris...Coastal Jackson...Coastal Matagorda...Colorado...
Fort Bend...Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula...
Grimes...Houston...Inland Brazoria...Inland Galveston...
Inland Harris...Inland Jackson...Inland Matagorda...
Madison...Matagorda Islands...Montgomery...Northern
Liberty...Polk...San Jacinto...Southern Liberty...Trinity...
Walker...Waller...Washington...Wharton.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

The Euro keeps hinting that at the very least, we could have a tropical wave approaching us from the BOC in about 10 days or so. I wonder what the EPS shows?

It's not only the euro but the old GFS as well. Surprisingly the old GFS has been consistent compared to how all over the place the operational is.

Light at the end of the tunnel? But this could also open up the door for the tropics to impact our area as well:

I hate to say or bring it or wish it - but just a small tropical wave would, at this point, be heavenly.

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 13, 2019 2:54 pm Light at the end of the tunnel? But this could also open up the door for the tropics to impact our area as well:

The Day 11+ GEFS Super Ensembles do suggest a weakness over portions of the Eastern half of Texas into Western Louisiana. It's still somewhat background noise from the sensible forecasting standpoint at that range, but worthy of monitoring.

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 13, 2019 2:54 pm Light at the end of the tunnel? But this could also open up the door for the tropics to impact our area as well:

Yep - Cold front lagging in the GoM.

The last few days have been brutal. I welcome a NW upper level flow setting up.

Ercot just issued a power conservation alert until 7 pm