August 2019: Weak Cold Front/Rain Chances To End August

[jasons2k]

Yep, it’s August. About time to see the grass and undergrowth shrivel-up and turn a toasty brown. Not my favorite time of the year.

[srainhoutx]

NWSWGRFC‏Verified account @NWSWGRFC · 11m11 minutes ago
Reservoir Status for the WGRFC - drought is expanding but the water supply status for the WGRFC area is in good shape this summer. #txdrought #txwx

[Katdaddy]

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1006 AM CDT Wed Aug 7 2019

...Heat Advisory In Effect...

.Very warm temperatures coupled with high humidity will yield heat
index values between 105 and 110 degrees over much of the area
today.

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-
335>338-436>438-080000-
/O.NEW.KHGX.HT.Y.0008.190807T1800Z-190808T0000Z/
Austin-Brazoria Islands-Brazos-Burleson-Chambers-Coastal Brazoria-
Coastal Galveston-Coastal Harris-Coastal Jackson-
Coastal Matagorda-Colorado-Fort Bend-
Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula-Grimes-Houston-
Inland Brazoria-Inland Galveston-Inland Harris-Inland Jackson-
Inland Matagorda-Madison-Matagorda Islands-Montgomery-
Northern Liberty-Polk-San Jacinto-Southern Liberty-Trinity-Walker-
Waller-Washington-Wharton-
Including the cities of Alvin, Anahuac, Angleton, Bay City,
Baytown, Bellville, Brenham, Brookshire, Bryan, Caldwell,
Cleveland, Clute, Coldspring, College Station, Columbus, Conroe,
Corrigan, Crockett, Dayton, Devers, Dickinson, Eagle Lake, Edna,
El Campo, First Colony, Freeport, Friendswood, Galveston, Ganado,
Groveton, Hempstead, Houston, Huntsville, La Marque,
Lake Jackson, League City, Liberty, Livingston, Madisonville,
Mission Bend, Missouri City, Mont Belvieu, Navasota,
Old River-Winfree, Palacios, Pasadena, Pearland, Pecan Grove,
Prairie View, Rosenberg, Sealy, Shepherd, Somerville, Stowell,
Sugar Land, Surfside Beach, Texas City, The Woodlands, Trinity,
Waller, Weimar, Wharton, and Winnie
1006 AM CDT Wed Aug 7 2019

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT
THIS EVENING...

The National Weather Service in Houston/Galveston has issued a
Heat Advisory, which is in effect from 1 PM this afternoon to
7 PM CDT this evening.

* EVENT...High heat index values between 105 and 110 degrees.

* TIMING...This afternoon into the early evening.

* IMPACT...Increased risk of heat-related illnesses including heat
exhaustion and heat stroke.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take extra precautions if you work or spend time outside. When
possible...reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or
evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat
stroke. Wear light weight and loose fitting clothing when
possible and drink plenty of water.

To reduce risk during outdoor work...the occupational safety and
health administration recommends scheduling frequent rest breaks
in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone overcome by
heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location. Heat stroke
is an emergency - call 911.

Each year...a number of fatalities occur nationwide due to
children accidentally being left in vehicles during the summer
months. In the past dozen years...500 children have died due to
hyperthermia after being left in or gaining access to cars. Never
leave children or pets unattended in a vehicle not even for a
minute. Remember...beat the heat...check the backseat.

[DoctorMu]

Not surprisingly, long term forecasts for the great plains deep into August are divergent. The Canadian has a potent cold front diving toward KS and OK after the 15th. Euro delays movement of the front. GFS has the heat building in the plains.

Go Canada!

[DoctorMu]

NWSWGRFC‏Verified account @NWSWGRFC · 11m11 minutes ago
Reservoir Status for the WGRFC - drought is expanding but the water supply status for the WGRFC area is in good shape this summer. #txdrought #txwx

Yep, those full reservoirs are going to come in handy the next 10-14 days. All the major models and Ensembles draw a donut hole of precip over our area.

Welcome to August!

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 071449
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
949 AM CDT Wed Aug 7 2019

.DISCUSSION...
High pressure aloft will expand over the southern plains today.
850 temps are between 19-21 C and this translates to surface
temperatures in the middle and upper 90`s. There should be quite a
range in surface dew points today as areas along and east of I-69
will endure dew pts in the mid/upper 70`s while some mixing of
drier air aloft will bring dew points down into the upper 60`s
over the NW zones. Heat index values will range from 105-110 over
the coastal/central zones and between 100-105 over the NW zones.
This creates a bit of a dilemma on how to handle the Heat
Advisory. Heat Advisory criteria should be met for areas along
and east of I-69. Criteria probably won`t be met over the north
(108 et al...) but with neighboring offices using lower criteria
and already issuing Heat Advisories, feel there isn`t much of an
option but to issue the Advisory for the entire CWA.

For the update, have issued a Heat Advisory for the entire CWA
from 18z through 00z. Raised temperatures a degree across the
board and tweaked dew point grids. PW values are over 2.00 inches
over the eastern half of the CWA and convective temperatures are
around 90 degrees so raised PoPs over mainly the eastern half of
the CWA for this afternoon. Areas lucky enough to receive rainfall
will probably remain below Heat Advisory criteria. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 AM CDT Wed Aug 7 2019/

AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...

VFR conditions persist throughout the TAF period. Some isolated
shower activity will continue to develop over the coastal waters
during the next couple of hours, potentially impacting GLS through
14Z. Otherwise, aside from the slight chance of a brief isolated
shower along the sea breeze, the region remains dry through the
duration of the TAF period. As the upper-level ridge pattern
remains in place, will see a typical summertime diurnal wind
pattern across the area over the next several days...light S/SW
winds increase to around 10 kts and shift to the S/SE by the
afternoon.

Cady

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 425 AM CDT Wed Aug 7 2019/

SHORT TERM [Today Through Thursday Night]...

Isolated to widely scattered WAA-type showers developing across
the coastal counties/nearshore waters at this time are expected
to continue this trend through the late morning hours. Addition-
al (mainly isolated) development is possible along and near the
seabreeze later this afternoon. Otherwise, this could to be our
last best chances for rain as the upper ridge settles more firm-
ly over the region by Thur. Early looks at progged temperatures
and dewpoints for tomorrow are indicating the decent likelihood
of elevated heat index values (105F - 110F) for portions of the
CWA. Locations along and south of the I-10 corridor may be most
vulnerable. 41

LONG TERM [Friday Through Tuesday]...

With the strong upper ridge ensconced across the Southern Plains
through the weekend, rain chances will remain quite low/nil. The
big forecast issue looks to be the high temperatures which could
peak from 100F - 103F these next several days...especially areas
around the Brazos River Valley. At this time, not expecting heat
indicies to be too crazy high as a slightly drier mid-level flow
helps to mix dewpoints down a bit. However, we`ll have to keep a
closer eye on things further south near the coast where moisture
(and dewpoints) could be a touch higher.

Looking further ahead, extended models are still keeping with the
idea of a weak backdoor frontal boundary moving toward the region
by the middle of next week. Given the time of year, not very con-
fident of this happening, but progs of increasing PWs (2.3"-2.5")
from the E/NE don`t look too out of line at this point. As such..
did start with the slow re-introduction of low POPs for this time
frame. 41

MARINE...

Southerly winds will persist this coming week with and upper level
ridge of high pressure limiting the chances for showers and
thunderstorms and encouraging the development of the diurnal
seabreeze pattern. The onshore flow of 5-15 knots will be the norm
with stronger winds near 15 knots the next few nights over the Gulf
waters. May even reach SCEC tonight and Thursday night for a few
hours.
45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 99 78 100 77 100 / 0 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 97 79 98 79 100 / 20 10 10 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 93 83 91 82 92 / 20 10 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening
for the following zones: Austin...Brazoria Islands...
Brazos...Burleson...Chambers...Coastal Brazoria...Coastal
Galveston...Coastal Harris...Coastal Jackson...Coastal
Matagorda...Colorado...Fort Bend...Galveston Island and
Bolivar Peninsula...Grimes...Houston...Inland Brazoria...
Inland Galveston...Inland Harris...Inland Jackson...Inland
Matagorda...Madison...Matagorda Islands...Montgomery...
Northern Liberty...Polk...San Jacinto...Southern Liberty...
Trinity...Walker...Waller...Washington...Wharton.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...33

[Texaspirate11]

Its August, alright....sigh

[jasons2k]

My high today was 101.

[Cpv17]

My high today was 101.

It always seems to be a few degrees hotter at your location than everywhere else lol sucks for you man

[srainhoutx]

Thursday morning weather briefing from Jeff:

Heat Advisory is in effect for the entire area today and will likely be extended through the weekend.

Upper level ridge of high pressure continues to build over TX allowing surface temperatures to rise into the upper 90’s to near 100 during the afternoon hours. Widespread heat index values of 107 to 112 are likely this afternoon and into the weekend. Additionally, overnight lows are struggling to fall much below 80 yielding little relief. In fact the morning low in Galveston looks to be 86 for today and the current heat index at Galveston is 105 and 107 at Bay City at 900am.

Will likely add a degree or two to the afternoon temperatures on Friday and Saturday so much of the area west of I-45 will be at or just above 100.

Remember heat stress is cumulative and builds over time, so try and mitigate heat exposure as much as possible.

[Rip76]

Such depressing weather.

[DoctorMu]

High yesterday was 99°F with a heat index of 108°F. We'll break 100°F for the next week.

The Big Suck.

Rain on the 4th was a huge blessing. Will probably run sprinklers tonight though.

[unome]

appreciate the clouds while they last, limited as they are

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/s ... &length=36

[Cromagnum]

Such depressing weather.

It is, but more depressing is 80+ degrees and humid in December and January.

[jasons2k]

It’s 100 at the house now. Same for many of the surrounding stations on WxUnderground.

And what’s that I see on the radar!?!?

[tireman4]

To the Pro Mets...when do you see this High Pressure Ridge of Death moving off?

[jasons2k]

To the Pro Mets...when do you see this High Pressure Ridge of Death moving off?

This is from this afternoon’s AFD from the NWS:

Long term guidance does show the ridge of high pressure weakening and moving a bit to the west by midweek next week and increased troughing over the east coast. This may allow for a chance of showers of thunderstorms to make their way into our region.

[jasons2k]

Had a little shower that dropped .03” and knocked the temp down 10 degrees back down to 90. A few more trying to pop-up on the southern flank of this little outflow. I’ll take whatever I can get...

[unome]

rain cloud envy

wv 2 - Copy.jpg

[srainhoutx]

Thursday afternoon Update from Jeff:

Excessive heat warning has been issued for the extreme coastal areas of SE TX and Galveston Island until 700pm.

This afternoon the heat index at Galveston has soared to 117 degrees and 112 at Bay City. Air temperatures along the coast have reached the mid to even upper 90’s and when combined with dewpoints near 80 is producing dangerously high heat index values. Persons should restrict outside exposure as much as possible.

Additionally, the low temperature today of 87 at Palacios is the warmest overnight low temperature ever recorded in the history. The low temperature at Galveston of 86 is also the warmest overnight low temperature ever recorded. Both of these records will become established if the temperatures are both sites do not fall below those values by midnight tonight. Additionally, the high temperature of 96 at Galveston is a record high for today.

BUSH IAH has also established a high temperature of 100 this afternoon thus far.