August 2019: Weak Cold Front/Rain Chances To End August

[Cromagnum]

Looking like more brutal heat for foreseeable future. Death Ridge isn't going anywhere for a while.

[Texaspirate11]

ACCORDING to CSU - all quiet through September 1st

https://tropical.colostate.edu/media/si ... 9-0819.pdf

I just can't see it being an active year - I'll vote continued Boring...

[srainhoutx]

I'm starting to see some signs of our Heat Ridge shifting West. The ensembles suggest a trough deepening from Alaska into Canada and slowly digging toward the Gulf Coast, particularly this weekend and into next week. Fingers crossed we can escape any tropical mischief this Hurricane Season and move right into an early Fall like pattern.

[Cromagnum]

ACCORDING to CSU - all quiet through September 1st

https://tropical.colostate.edu/media/si ... 9-0819.pdf

I just can't see it being an active year - I'll vote continued Boring...

Didn't the NHC just revise the forecast UP ? Something doesnt give unless they are expecting armageddon in September and October.

[Katdaddy]

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Flood Advisory for...
North central Brazoria County in southeastern Texas...
South central Harris County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 600 PM CDT.

* At 453 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to
thunderstorms. This will cause minor flooding in the advisory area.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Northern Pearland, South Houston, West University Place, Greater
Hobby Area, Astrodome Area, Macgregor, University Place, Greater
Third Ward, western South Belt / Ellington, Brookside Village,
Golfcrest / Bellfort / Reveille, South Park, Minnetex, Gulfgate
Riverview / Pine Valley, Greater Ost / South Union, South Acres /
Crestmont Park, Sunnyside, Medical Center Area, Hobby Airport and
Central Southwest.

[Texaspirate11]

ACCORDING to CSU - all quiet through September 1st

https://tropical.colostate.edu/media/si ... 9-0819.pdf

I just can't see it being an active year - I'll vote continued Boring...

Didn't the NHC just revise the forecast UP ? Something doesnt give unless they are expecting armageddon in September and October.

I thought that a bit strange also...if we can make it to September 20th safely - GENERALLY, most storms go East of us...generally.
So here's to 4 weeks of peace and quiet. I'm just begging for an inch or two of rain for the garden.
I'm not a met nor do I play one on tv.

[jasons2k]

Another day....of no rain. It’s getting pretty bad now.

[Pas_Bon]

ACCORDING to CSU - all quiet through September 1st

https://tropical.colostate.edu/media/si ... 9-0819.pdf

I just can't see it being an active year - I'll vote continued Boring...

Didn't the NHC just revise the forecast UP ? Something doesnt give unless they are expecting armageddon in September and October.

They must’ve accidentally hit the “up” button.
I agree. We thought they were on crack or something when they revised the forecast up with nary a speck of activity.

[cperk]

ACCORDING to CSU - all quiet through September 1st

https://tropical.colostate.edu/media/si ... 9-0819.pdf

I just can't see it being an active year - I'll vote continued Boring...

Didn't the NHC just revise the forecast UP ? Something doesnt give unless they are expecting armageddon in September and October.

They must’ve accidentally hit the “up” button.
I agree. We thought they were on crack or something when they revised the forecast up with nary a speck of activity.

Careful there i made similar comments in my early weather watching days and i am here to tell you that crow taste nothing like chicken.

[srainhoutx]

Philip Klotzbach‏Verified account @philklotzbach · 30m30 minutes ago

On August 20 every year, Dr. Bill Gray would ring a bell denoting the start of the climatologically most active portion of the Atlantic #hurricane season. Historically, about 2/3 of all Atlantic hurricane activity occurs between August 20 - October 10.

[BlueJay]

So, it's not over until its over.
Stay watchful and ready.

[srainhoutx]

Tuesday mid morning weather briefing from Jeff:

Typical summer pattern in place today and Wednesday followed by an increase in moisture as a tropical wave reaches the NW Gulf Thursday-Saturday.

Upper level high pressure ridge that has been anchored over the southern plains has built westward allowing a weakness aloft to develop over eastern TX with resulting daily chances of afternoon showers and thunderstorms over the area. Moisture remain plentiful over the region with PWS of 2.0-2.2 inches and once temperatures reach the lower 90 expect thunderstorms to develop along the inland moving seabreeze front. While not everyone will see rainfall, those locations under the heavy cells could easily pick up 1-2 inches of rainfall in less than an hour. In fact Hobby Airport recorded 2.83 inches of rainfall yesterday in less than one hour which is more than the site has had for the period 6/30 to 8/18 which was 2.47 inches.

Tropical Wave:
Satellite images this morning show a tropical wave axis stretching from the southern coast of Cuba to the SW Caribbean Sea along the eastern flank of a mid to upper level low pressure system moving westward over the southern Yucatan. Convection is focused on the eastern flank of the wave axis and in the upper level diffluent area of the mid/upper level low. This complex system will be moving westward and then northwest over the Bay of Campeche Wednesday and the western Gulf of Mexico Thursday and then into the NW Gulf on Friday and Saturday. While global forecast models continue to show little to no develop of this feature, a pool of deep tropical moisture will arrive into the NW Gulf of Mexico Thursday into Friday. The majority of the guidance keeps the heaviest rainfall over the Gulf waters and then NNE/NE toward the southern Louisiana coast, so will keep the expected rainfall amounts on the lower side at the moment with 1-2 inches most likely along and SE of a line from Matagorda Bay to Houston to Liberty. Only a small shift westward in the progged deep moisture axis of any mid level/weak surface reflection could bring more significant rainfall to parts of SE TX…so this is something that will need to be monitored over the next few days.

While the 2019 Atlantic tropical season has been quite since mid July and Barry, 66% of all Atlantic basin tropical cyclones occur between August 20th and October 10th.

[cperk]

Thanks Jeff i was just about to post about that wave as it appears very vigorous.

[stormlover]

yeah wouldn't surprise that a depression forms out of this

[Texaspirate11]

The skies have opened up down here by the bay - over an inch so far and still raining!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Texaspirate11]

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Flood Advisory for...
Northwestern Galveston County in southeastern Texas...
Northeastern Fort Bend County in southeastern Texas...
North central Brazoria County in southeastern Texas...
South central Harris County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 415 PM CDT.

* At 110 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated very heavy rain due to slow
moving and merging thunderstorms. This will cause minor flooding
in the advisory area. Up to one inch of rain has already fallen
and some isolated areas have received amounts near 2 inches.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Pearland, northern Missouri City, Friendswood, Stafford, Bellaire,
West University Place, Piney Point Village, Greater Hobby Area,
Astrodome Area, Greenway / Upper Kirby Area, University Place,
South Belt / Ellington, Afton Oaks / River Oaks Area, Macgregor,
western Clear Lake, Southside Place, Brookside Village, Golfcrest /
Bellfort / Reveille, Braeswood and Westbury.

[Cpv17]

Well wouldn’t you know, we’re actually getting a good shower here in Wharton County today.

[srainhoutx]

Areal coverage is certainly much more than we have seen in a while. Starting to rain in NW Harris County as well. That tropical wave extending from Western Cuba to the SW Caribbean Sea also continues to push off to the WNW. The mid level circulation is showing signs of turning to the WNW to NW as well. I did notice the 12Z Euro suggested a bit more inland over SE Texas track today with that circulation reflection. Perhaps we can manage to squeeze out some additional rainfall later this week into the weekend.

[stormlover]

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SAT_CARIBWIDE/anim8ir.html


looking better down there

[jasons2k]

Heartbreaking to see so much activity on the radar and it’s doing everything it can to miss me!!

The elm, sycamore and some sweet gums are turning brown and losing their leaves. The sycamore trees at the Imperial Oaks Kroger center are almost completely bare...

Update: another day of nothing.