July 2019: Warming Trend/Slight Chances For Rain
Barry is incredibly ugly right now LOL
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Texaspirate11
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Very strange one
Just because you're disabled, you don't have to be a victim
Be Weather Aware & Prepared!
Barbara Jordan Winner in Media
Disability Integration Consultant
Be Weather Aware & Prepared!
Barbara Jordan Winner in Media
Disability Integration Consultant
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tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4488
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
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606
WTNT32 KNHC 112056
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Barry Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019
400 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2019
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOUISIANA COAST...
...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, HEAVY RAINS, AND WIND CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST...
SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.8N 89.3W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM S OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM SE OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
A Hurricane Warning is now in effect for the coast of Louisiana
from Intracoastal City to Grand Isle.
A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for Lake Pontchartrain and
Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New Orleans.
A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for the Louisiana coast
west of Intracoastal City to Cameron.
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for Lake Pontchartrain.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City to Grand Isle
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Pearl River to Grand Isle
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New
Orleans
* Intracoastal City to Cameron
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Shell Beach
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Shell Beach to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City
* Lake Pontchartrain
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Mississippi River to Grand Isle
* Intracoastal City to Cameron
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of the Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama
border
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the
coastline in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area generally within 48 hours.
Interests elsewhere along the Gulf Coast from the Upper Texas Coast
to the Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress of this system.
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Barry was
located near latitude 27.8 North, longitude 89.3 West. Barry is
moving toward the west near 5 mph (7 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue tonight. A turn toward the northwest is
expected on Friday, followed by a turn toward the north on Saturday.
On the forecast track, the center of Barry will be near or over the
central or southeastern coast of Louisiana Friday night or Saturday,
and then move inland into the lower Mississippi Valley on Sunday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is expected during the next day or two, and Barry
could become a hurricane late Friday or early Saturday when the
center is near the Louisiana coast. Weakening is expected after
Barry moves inland.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center. An oil rig east of the Mouth of the Mississippi
River recently reported sustained winds of 40 mph and a wind gust
of 52 mph at an elevation of 525 feet.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Barry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Shell Beach...3 to 6 ft
Shell Beach to the Mississippi/Alabama border...2 to 4 ft
Intracoastal City to the Mouth of the Atchafalaya River...2 to 4 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...2 to 4 ft
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.
RAINFALL: Barry is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
10 to 20 inches over southeast Louisiana and southwest Mississippi,
with isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches. Over the remainder of
the Lower Mississippi Valley, total rain accumulations of 4 to 8
inches are expected, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning
area by Friday night or Saturday morning, with tropical storm
conditions expected by Friday morning. Hurricane conditions are
possible within the Hurricane Watch area by Friday night or
Saturday morning. Tropical Storm conditions are expected to spread
across the Tropical Storm Warning area starting late tonight, with
tropical storm conditions possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area
by Friday night or Saturday.
TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible Friday late morning through
Friday night across southeast Louisiana, far southern Mississippi,
and the Alabama coast.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.
$$
Forecaster Beven
WTNT32 KNHC 112056
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Barry Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019
400 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2019
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOUISIANA COAST...
...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, HEAVY RAINS, AND WIND CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST...
SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.8N 89.3W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM S OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM SE OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
A Hurricane Warning is now in effect for the coast of Louisiana
from Intracoastal City to Grand Isle.
A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for Lake Pontchartrain and
Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New Orleans.
A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for the Louisiana coast
west of Intracoastal City to Cameron.
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for Lake Pontchartrain.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City to Grand Isle
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Pearl River to Grand Isle
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New
Orleans
* Intracoastal City to Cameron
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Shell Beach
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Shell Beach to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City
* Lake Pontchartrain
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Mississippi River to Grand Isle
* Intracoastal City to Cameron
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of the Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama
border
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the
coastline in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area generally within 48 hours.
Interests elsewhere along the Gulf Coast from the Upper Texas Coast
to the Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress of this system.
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Barry was
located near latitude 27.8 North, longitude 89.3 West. Barry is
moving toward the west near 5 mph (7 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue tonight. A turn toward the northwest is
expected on Friday, followed by a turn toward the north on Saturday.
On the forecast track, the center of Barry will be near or over the
central or southeastern coast of Louisiana Friday night or Saturday,
and then move inland into the lower Mississippi Valley on Sunday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is expected during the next day or two, and Barry
could become a hurricane late Friday or early Saturday when the
center is near the Louisiana coast. Weakening is expected after
Barry moves inland.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center. An oil rig east of the Mouth of the Mississippi
River recently reported sustained winds of 40 mph and a wind gust
of 52 mph at an elevation of 525 feet.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Barry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Shell Beach...3 to 6 ft
Shell Beach to the Mississippi/Alabama border...2 to 4 ft
Intracoastal City to the Mouth of the Atchafalaya River...2 to 4 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...2 to 4 ft
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.
RAINFALL: Barry is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
10 to 20 inches over southeast Louisiana and southwest Mississippi,
with isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches. Over the remainder of
the Lower Mississippi Valley, total rain accumulations of 4 to 8
inches are expected, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning
area by Friday night or Saturday morning, with tropical storm
conditions expected by Friday morning. Hurricane conditions are
possible within the Hurricane Watch area by Friday night or
Saturday morning. Tropical Storm conditions are expected to spread
across the Tropical Storm Warning area starting late tonight, with
tropical storm conditions possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area
by Friday night or Saturday.
TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible Friday late morning through
Friday night across southeast Louisiana, far southern Mississippi,
and the Alabama coast.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.
$$
Forecaster Beven
NHC seems to be completely dismissing the UKMET model.
Yep I agree. Off the top of your head, have you ever seen anything like that happen?
And just as that big blob off the coast of Texas that tireman4 was talking about, more towers are starting to build up.
They seem fairly confident the ridge will weaken.
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
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Kingwood36
- Posts: 1592
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Gotta give props to the ukmet tho..sucker has held strong with his beliefs lol
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Samantha550
- Posts: 16
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I’m clueless but are we supposed to be under high pressure in the Golden Triagle? It sure doesn’t feel that way. In fact it feels like it does when we get a tropical storm. Big rain drops and gusty winds.
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Texaspirate11
- Posts: 1278
- Joined: Tue Dec 31, 2013 12:24 am
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i didnt know the nhc had a podcast - great for the blind and others
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/audio/201907112106.mp3
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/audio/201907112106.mp3
Just because you're disabled, you don't have to be a victim
Be Weather Aware & Prepared!
Barbara Jordan Winner in Media
Disability Integration Consultant
Be Weather Aware & Prepared!
Barbara Jordan Winner in Media
Disability Integration Consultant
-
Kingwood36
- Posts: 1592
- Joined: Sat Dec 29, 2018 10:29 am
- Location: Freeport
- Contact:
is it possible that Barry misses the trough as it has seem to stop digging south?
https://twitter.com/JPSSProgram/status/ ... 5272552448
Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS)
Verified account @JPSSProgram
#NOAA20 passed over Tropical Storm #Barry this afternoon, its #VIIRS instrument seeing that the circulation center had become more well-defined. For the latest on Barry: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#Barry
Very well possible. So much hinges on where the center finally consolidates. Think the next 12 hours will be telling if one of the multi vortexes can finally take over and where the vorticity ends up at. Does it get tugged further southwest closer to the convection? Southeast? What I'll be keeping an eye on is how much convection develops overnight with very high CAPE values and shear that should be relaxing. It is slightly concerning to see models have a shift westward during the 12z runs (Euro, GFS, UKMET, ...even the NAM - though not a reliable tropical model). The 00z runs may cause more headaches if there's another shift west. This is a rather unique situation between the trough/ridge and Barry's placement. Just a small model error placement on either of those could have huge implications on forecast track. Forecasting is not easy...Kingwood36 wrote: ↑Thu Jul 11, 2019 4:54 pm is it possible that Barry misses the trough as it has seem to stop digging south?
Blake
Boomer Sooner
Boomer Sooner
yes, pretty awesome, they've done that for some years, though not on every storm: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/audio/Texaspirate11 wrote: ↑Thu Jul 11, 2019 4:53 pm i didnt know the nhc had a podcast - great for the blind and others
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/audio/201907112106.mp3
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Kingwood36
- Posts: 1592
- Joined: Sat Dec 29, 2018 10:29 am
- Location: Freeport
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From this afternoon's "discussion section" - Houston NWS
Most tropical model guidance pull Barry north Friday night into
Saturday making landfall in Louisiana. This looks to be the most
likely scenario and limits the impacts to SE Texas.
- We are still a little leary of the track forecast as the UKMET
continues a track to the west of the consensus models and the
12Z GFS ensemble shows a more westwards shift in tracks as well.
This may be due to these models building the ridge over
Florida. This serves as our alternate scenario but confidence
lies in the most likely scenario above.
Most tropical model guidance pull Barry north Friday night into
Saturday making landfall in Louisiana. This looks to be the most
likely scenario and limits the impacts to SE Texas.
- We are still a little leary of the track forecast as the UKMET
continues a track to the west of the consensus models and the
12Z GFS ensemble shows a more westwards shift in tracks as well.
This may be due to these models building the ridge over
Florida. This serves as our alternate scenario but confidence
lies in the most likely scenario above.
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Katdaddy
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 2502
- Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 8:18 am
- Location: League City, Tx
- Contact:
TS Barry is trying to organize over the N GOM this evening. The official NHC forecast has TS Barry remaining a TS and landfalling along the S Central LA Coast Saturday. With that said until TS Barry is onshore we still need to be tropical weather aware along the Upper TX Coast.
More excellent information from this afternoon’s National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX Area Forecast Discussion:
Changes since last forecast:
- It looks like the upper trough will be moving east enough to not fully pull TS Barry north.
- TS Barry still looks to move north as there will still be a
weakness in the flow and the Bermuda ridge building over the Bahamas and Florida will continue to do so through the weekend. Flow around this ridge should help push TS Barry north but still some question as to when exactly will happen.
- Most tropical model guidance pull Barry north Friday night into Saturday making landfall in Louisiana. This looks to be the most likely scenario and limits the impacts to SE Texas.
- We are still a little leary of the track forecast as the UKMET continues a track to the west of the consensus models and the 12Z GFS ensemble shows a more westwards shift in tracks as well. This may be due to these models building the ridge over Florida. This serves as our alternate scenario but confidence lies in the most likely scenario above.
Impacts for SE Texas are highly dependent upon the track. We are more confident that there will be minimal impacts from Barry for the area, but do not want to let our guard down either. It is best to continue to monitor forecasts going forward.
More excellent information from this afternoon’s National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX Area Forecast Discussion:
Changes since last forecast:
- It looks like the upper trough will be moving east enough to not fully pull TS Barry north.
- TS Barry still looks to move north as there will still be a
weakness in the flow and the Bermuda ridge building over the Bahamas and Florida will continue to do so through the weekend. Flow around this ridge should help push TS Barry north but still some question as to when exactly will happen.
- Most tropical model guidance pull Barry north Friday night into Saturday making landfall in Louisiana. This looks to be the most likely scenario and limits the impacts to SE Texas.
- We are still a little leary of the track forecast as the UKMET continues a track to the west of the consensus models and the 12Z GFS ensemble shows a more westwards shift in tracks as well. This may be due to these models building the ridge over Florida. This serves as our alternate scenario but confidence lies in the most likely scenario above.
Impacts for SE Texas are highly dependent upon the track. We are more confident that there will be minimal impacts from Barry for the area, but do not want to let our guard down either. It is best to continue to monitor forecasts going forward.
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stormlover
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- Location: Lumberton TX
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Hwrf makes a huge shift west
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srainhoutx
- Site Admin
- Posts: 19616
- Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
- Contact:
Meanwhile we are seeing some effects from the outer fringes of Barry locally...
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
600 PM CDT THU JUL 11 2019
COASTAL HARRIS TX-COASTAL GALVESTON TX-
600 PM CDT THU JUL 11 2019
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN GALVESTON AND
SOUTHEASTERN HARRIS COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM CDT...
AT 600 PM CDT, DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
NORTHEASTERN SEABROOK, MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH.
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SOUTHEASTERN PASADENA, NORTHEASTERN LEAGUE CITY, LA PORTE, SEABROOK,
WEBSTER, KEMAH, EASTERN CLEAR LAKE, NASSAU BAY, TAYLOR LAKE VILLAGE,
EL LAGO, SHOREACRES, CLEAR LAKE SHORES, THE JOHNSON SPACE CENTER AND
KEMAH BOARDWALK.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
600 PM CDT THU JUL 11 2019
COASTAL HARRIS TX-COASTAL GALVESTON TX-
600 PM CDT THU JUL 11 2019
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN GALVESTON AND
SOUTHEASTERN HARRIS COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM CDT...
AT 600 PM CDT, DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
NORTHEASTERN SEABROOK, MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH.
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SOUTHEASTERN PASADENA, NORTHEASTERN LEAGUE CITY, LA PORTE, SEABROOK,
WEBSTER, KEMAH, EASTERN CLEAR LAKE, NASSAU BAY, TAYLOR LAKE VILLAGE,
EL LAGO, SHOREACRES, CLEAR LAKE SHORES, THE JOHNSON SPACE CENTER AND
KEMAH BOARDWALK.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
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Kingwood36
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Its the hwrf tho lol