July 2019: Warming Trend/Slight Chances For Rain

[tireman4]

Normal Date for Summer Midpoint Temperatures ( for those like me who loathe Summer)

[JDsGN]

We had a really strong cell pop up around 6:30 yesterday in Cypress when I thought it had all dried up. Got right at 1" of rain over a 30 minute period. Had a couple minutes of really intense winds as well. The rain was very much appreciated.

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 161831
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
131 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2019

.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...
Mainly VFR this afternoon with a thin band of MVFR BKN020ish
ceilings right along the coast. Temperatures have reached the
92-94 degree mark and showers/isolated thunderstorms beginning to
develop. Most of the higher resolution/CAM support higher rain
chances though not that high generally north and northeast of IAH
and have tailored the TAFs accordingly with VCSH this afternoon.
Skies clearing out quickly this evening with only a little cirrus
spreading into the region from the east/southeast. After 06-09z
expect a repeat of lower ceilings - MVFR to dot the area
eventually consolidating over the west and northern areas.
Improving to VFR 13-15z Wednesday. Rain chances looking slimmer
Wednesday. 45

&&

[DoctorMu]

1.5 inches at our place in Magnolia.

How about 1.5 per week until the end of August?

0.25 in IMBY. Better than nothing!

[unome]

We had a really strong cell pop up around 6:30 yesterday in Cypress when I thought it had all dried up. Got right at 1" of rain over a 30 minute period. Had a couple minutes of really intense winds as well. The rain was very much appreciated.

yes, it made my day

[Texaspirate11]

SO WHATS THE BUZZ about a piece of Barry coming back into the GOM and headed to Houston - again?
Considering I got NADA out of this - he owes me at least a half an inch or so....

FROM 13:
"This is wild to watch. A piece of Barry's moisture is going to break away from the main circulation and make a big loop back into Texas next week. That's the forecast right now anyway. ""

[jasons2k]

Everything today has been off to my north. It was dark and thundering here at one point, but the cloud didn’t drop until it passed on by...I’m just grateful for the rain yesterday, otherwise it’d be really dry.

[srainhoutx]

Seems to me we've experienced a typical Texas summer. Climatology doesn't lie...

[unome]

Seems to me we've experienced a typical Texas summer. Climatology doesn't lie...

http://prism.oregonstate.edu/

PRISM Climate Group is supported by USDA Risk Management Agency, I wonder if they still have USDA scientists employed

[tireman4]

I thought this was cool. HurricaneSandy at S2K ( pro met whom many of us know personally) shared this on his Facebook Page...


https://cruiseradio.net/carnival-gives- ... ne-season/

[tireman4]

HGX Weather Update

[tireman4]

988
FXUS64 KHGX 171136
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
636 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...

Latest obs and satellite imagery show again a band of low stratus
over KCLL/KUTS/KCXO but more thick towards KCLL with IFR/MVFR
ceilings. Farther south clouds are more thin and maintain VFR
conditions. Ceilings should improve 14-16Z with possibly a few
SHRA/TSRA developing 17-20Z in the Houston area. TAFs do not have
mention of TSRA as confience is low and coverage should be
isolated at most. Winds will be a little stronger today in the
afternoon but decrease again tonight. Similar pattern is expected
tonight with low stratus and MVFR ceilngs developing for
KCLL/KUTS/KCXO.

Overpeck

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 341 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019/...

.SHORT TERM [Today Through Tonight]...
Humid conditions remain in place over SE Texas this morning with
light southerly winds. Upper level analysis shows the upper level
ridge expanding over Texas with 500mb heights around 594dm. Deep
moisture of 1.8 inches of precipitable water still looks possible
today so we will be looking for another round of showers and
storms this afternoon. Overall there is not much lift in the
atmosphere if any at all due to the ridge. Mesoscale models once
again suggest showers and a few storms to fire along the sea
breeze early in the afternoon through the I-45 corridor. Forecast
will go with some 20 PoPs for today to cover this possibility but
based on the ridging, it will be hard for convection to develop
with day time heating and lift from the sea breeze.

Like yesterday, temperatures should reach the mid/upper 90s again
with heat index values in the 103F to 108F range. Quite possible for
a few spots to go above 108F if moisture does not mix out as much,
but we think these higher heat index values will be for isolated
areas and brief. For now we will not issue a heat advisory but there
could be a chance for one being issued later especially for areas
along the coast where mixing will be less.

Overpeck


.LONG TERM [Thursday Through Tuesday]...
An upper level ridge builds in across the western Gulf of Mexico
and TX Thursday, bringing with it hot weather and onshore flow. A
typical summertime regime will continue through the week and into
the early part of the weekend. High temperatures will rise into
the low to mid 90s, with low temperatures each day bottoming out
in the mid 70s to low 80s. Precipitable water values will range
between 1.6 to 1.8 inches. Patchy fog will also be possible in the
early morning hours through the remainder of the week, but should
this low level moisture rise and burn off shortly after sunrise.

A slight chance for showers and thunderstorms returns Saturday
afternoon, with precipitation chances and overall coverage on the
rise Sunday and into the beginning of next week. The upper level
ridge weakens and shifts northwest Saturday, and an inverted
trough axis looks to set up over the southwestern portion of the
Gulf of Mexico. This area of low pressure pushes northward
parallel to the TX coast Sunday, bringing with it better moisture
and lift, helping to aid in the development of showers and
thunderstorms. Partly to mostly cloudy skies will keep
temperatures a touch cooler Sunday through Tuesday, with drier
conditions and sunnier skies returning by mid week.

Hathaway


.MARINE...
Overall the next few days we can expect a more typical summer time
forecast. Winds will generally be from the south around 10-15 knots
with a slight increase to 13-17 knots at times overnight. This will
also support seas around 2-4 feet. The only other concern will be
slightly higher tides and rip currents. Tides should be about a half
foot to a foot above normal but not cause any problems.

Overpeck

.CLIMATE...
A couple of record high minimum temperatures were set yesterday,
July 16th, across SE TX. For the City of Galveston, a record high
minimum temperature of 85 degrees was set, breaking the old
record of 84 degrees set in 1994. This also once again ties the
warmest high minimum temperature ever recorded for the City of
Galveston. Additionally, Houston Hobby recorded a high minimum
temperature of 81 degrees, breaking the old record of 79 degrees
set in 2010. Finally, the minimum temperature for the City of
College Station yesterday was 79 degrees, which ties the record
high minimum temperature of 79 degrees previously set in 2009.

Hathaway

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 96 77 95 76 95 / 0 0 10 0 0
Houston (IAH) 95 79 93 78 93 / 20 0 10 0 10
Galveston (GLS) 92 82 89 84 90 / 10 0 10 0 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$


AVIATION...Overpeck

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 171523
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1023 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019

.UPDATE...
Made just a few slight adjustments to forecast grids. Satellite
and radar showing a few showers moving in off the Gulf. Will
likely see some isolated showers and possibly a few thunderstorms
this afternoon over land as we heat up. Model soundings show a
weak cap...if parcel were to break the cap well see thunder...for
convection that stays below just showers. The zone of this
isolated activity will progress farther inland as we go through
the afternoon...typical summer time progression. Coverage no more
than 15 percent...with most locations rain free. Will be hot as
well. After freshening the temp and dewpt grids...still looks like
well peak out just blow heat advisory criteria...but still
important for those outside to take precautions. Typically Houston
summer time heat and humidity.

Reilly

&&

[tireman4]

Heat Safety Tips

[srainhoutx]

I continue to see a rather impressive pattern change brewing for the weekend into next week. A frontal boundary creeps into our Region and rain chances look to increase as the weekend closes and a new work week begins.

[DoctorMu]

I continue to see a rather impressive pattern change brewing for the weekend into next week. A frontal boundary creeps into our Region and rain chances look to increase as the weekend closes and a new work week begins.

Yesterday, GFS, Ensemble, and Canadian had sniffed out the front prognosticated for the 24th/25th yesterday. Looks like an encouraging and consistent trend. The heatwave over the midwest will break after this week. Anything that cuts down on the time the Death Ridge is pressing down on the Brazos Valley and Houston area in July or August is a good thing. From my perspective it is 2-3°F cooler than last summer so far. Fingers crossed over the next month and a half until SEC football season.

[DoctorMu]

FWIW, Ensemble and GFS maintain a cooler than normal period for Jul 23-Aug2.

[jasons2k]

Lots of thunder. Rain to the east, rain to the west, I’m in-between in a void of nothingness.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

FWIW, Ensemble and GFS maintain a cooler than normal period for Jul 23-Aug2.

Don't make my heart melt with joy!

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Lots of thunder. Rain to the east, rain to the west, I’m in-between in a void of nothingness.

I just got a little bit. There's still two more cells that we will get a piece of. I'd take two tenths of rain a day, every day in the Summer.