July 2019: Warming Trend/Slight Chances For Rain

[Kingwood36]

Looks like it’s still basically moving west, the WNW motion is more due to center repositioning than any true change of motion. If it doesn’t start going north by 92W, things will start getting very interesting...

It's really hard to tell.... Looks like it may be moving WNW on satellite but who knows lol. Pretty much every single model has it going to Louisiana now. So if it somehow keeps going West into Texas, then this will be unbelievable.

I dont think it will keep heading west..its scheduled to start making that turn here in a bit

[dbrooks77346]

So if the center has been pulled to the convention in the south as it looks like , then it should get settled and then turn north soon right?

[davidiowx]

So if the center has been pulled to the convention in the south as it looks like , then it should get settled and then turn north soon right?

That's pretty much the forecast. The convection the CoC just went under is really starting to blow up now!

[davidiowx]

Any updates on where the trough and high pressures are this morning?

[srainhoutx]

Tropical Storm Barry Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019
1000 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2019

Reports from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that Barry has strengthened during the past several hours.
The Air Force plane reported maximum 850-mb flight-level winds of 62
kt and reliable-looking SFMR winds of 50-55 kt in the strong
convection that has developed in the southern quadrant. In
addition, the data from both planes indicate the central pressure
has fallen to near 998 mb. Based on these data, the initial
intensity is increased to 55 kt. Data from the NOAA plane, which is
flying near 460 mb, shows that the center at that level is south of
the low-level center, likely due to ongoing northerly shear.

The initial motion is an erratic 290/4. While there is still a
larger than normal spread between the UKMET on the left side and the
HWRF on the right side, the track guidance has come into better
agreement that Barry will turn northwestward later today or tonight,
with this motion continuing until the center makes landfall along
the Louisiana coast in 24-30 h. After landfall, the system should
move northward through a break in the ridge of high pressure over
the United States until the 72 h point, after which it should
recurve northeastward into the westerlies. The new track forecast
has only minor tweaks from the previous forecast, and it lies near
the various consensus models.

Barry has been strengthening despite an asymmetric convective
structure, ongoing northerly shear, and the presence of mid- to
upper-level dry air over the northern semicircle. The intensity
guidance suggests that, while the environment will be at best
marginally favorable, the cyclone will continue to intensify until
landfall. Based on this, the new intensity forecast calls for Barry
to become a hurricane in 24 h, just before landfall, with this
forecast being slightly above the guidance. After landfall, the
cyclone should steadily weaken, with decay to a remnant low
forecast to occur in about 72 h.

Key Messages:

1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
along the coast of southern and southeastern Louisiana, portions of
Lake Pontchartrain, and portions of coastal Mississippi where a
Storm Surge Warning is in effect. Water levels are already beginning
to rise in these areas, with the peak inundation expected on
Saturday. The highest storm surge inundation is expected between
Intracoastal City and Shell Beach.

2. The slow movement of Barry will result in a long duration heavy
rainfall and flood threat along the central Gulf Coast, across
portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley and north into the
Tennessee Valley through the weekend into early next week. Flash
flooding and river flooding will become increasingly likely, some of
which may be life-threatening, especially across portions of
southeast Louisiana into Mississippi.

3. Hurricane conditions are expected along a portion of the coast of
Louisiana, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Tropical storm
conditions are expected elsewhere along much of the Louisiana coast
and inland across portions of south-central Louisiana where tropical
storm warnings are in effect.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/1500Z 28.2N 90.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 13/0000Z 28.6N 90.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 13/1200Z 29.4N 91.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 14/0000Z 30.5N 92.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
48H 14/1200Z 31.8N 92.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 15/1200Z 34.4N 92.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 16/1200Z 37.0N 90.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 17/1200Z 39.5N 87.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Beven

[Cromagnum]

Likely going to make Cane status this afternoon. Reports of 65 mph winds found already.

[jasons2k]

It’s hard to believe the Lake Charles radar is virtually clear.

[Scott747]

The way recon turned the center may be a little further s.

[Cromagnum]

Man unless this thing keeps on trucking towards us, it is going to be miserably hot this weekend.

[djmike]

When is the next UKMET run?

[sau27]

A bit of a tangent (but somewhat on-topic) - I have seen mentioned in a couple of places the possibility of a convergence zone forming late Saturday into Sunday somewhere in our neck of the woods which could produce a bout of heavy rain. I have been scouring the models and am having a hard time finding it. I am assuming it is a speed convergence zone I am looking for, but was wondering if anyone could help guide me to the right spot.

[djmike]

When is the next UKMET run?

[stormlover]

Around 11:45

[Rip76]

Man unless this thing keeps on trucking towards us, it is going to be miserably hot this weekend.

You're not kidding.

[Kingwood36]

Man unless this thing keeps on trucking towards us, it is going to be miserably hot this weekend.

You're not kidding.

Its summer..in..houston..what do you expect?

[Belmer]

A bit of a tangent (but somewhat on-topic) - I have seen mentioned in a couple of places the possibility of a convergence zone forming late Saturday into Sunday somewhere in our neck of the woods which could produce a bout of heavy rain. I have been scouring the models and am having a hard time finding it. I am assuming it is a speed convergence zone I am looking for, but was wondering if anyone could help guide me to the right spot.

That's a possibility. Will depend on where Barry moves inland in relation to us. Models seem to be latching on the idea that once Barry makes landfall in central Louisiana, that the motion will generally be NW up into Texarkana by Sunday. With the flow around this, it could set up one of the heavy rainbands on the southern end of the storm along I-10.

Below is current visible of Barry. Red circle indicates where the 'center' is on what RECON is finding right now. Blue outline is some strong convection to the SW.

This is the 12z NAM 12KM. Assuming Barry makes its way up to the Northwest, we could have a convergence band set up around our area.

I'm not sold on it yet until a bit more model support comes in for that. But Sunday could very well end up being a wet day around here. Saturday, probably fairly dry. This could still end up moving North and then Northeast once it makes landfall instead of a NW motion. Time will tell. Just stay tuned.

Edit to add: Only included NAM model since that is the only 12z run I see supporting that. So confidence is low/unlikely at this time that it may happen. In addition, don't focus on rainfall amounts that NAM is showing. I posted that in support that if things were to line up right, that heavy rain may fall somewhere near SETX. That band could very well stay offshore still leaving us dry.

[Cromagnum]

Man unless this thing keeps on trucking towards us, it is going to be miserably hot this weekend.

You're not kidding.

Its summer..in..houston..what do you expect?

You ever hear of subsidence? The pressure cook is gonna be on wherever that storm doesn't go.

[sau27]

Thanks Blake

[Texaspirate11]

for those that want to know when models run:

gfs- 6.30 a.m./7 p.m. 11:30 a.m./p.m.
ukmet/hwrf/gfdl/navgem 6.30-8:00 a.m./12:30 p.m. 2;00 a.m.
euro - 1:45 a.m./p.m.
tcvm - weighted average

last night we had a real good tropical downpour with hail
my friends on bolivar clocked winds at 60 mph
i think we'll see these kinds of bands throughout the weekend by the coast
i feel so badly for louisiana - they reported they've never seen a storm like this in july with the river so high



now onto 93L

[srainhoutx]

The GFS continues to suggest the energy from Barry will ride all the way around a building high pressure ridge and return to Mississippi/Louisiana in about 10 days.