July 2019: Warming Trend/Slight Chances For Rain

[BlueJay]

Only 49 days until climatological Fall....

And college football

I think Summer 2019 has been quite mild thus far. I do hope that the 2nd half is just as delightful. Enjoy your day everyone!

[tireman4]

Jeff Radar Update at 11 am

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Only 49 days until climatological Fall....

And college football

I think Summer 2019 has been quite mild thus far. I do hope that the 2nd half is just as delightful. Enjoy your day everyone!

You would be correct in that it hasn't been horrible when compared to some of our worst years. That's all relative for me though. I hate humidity and anything over 80. Yes, I realize that I live most of the year in a sub-tropical, concrete encroaching, malfunctioning pressure cooker.

[srainhoutx]

Storms beginning to train along the boundary across Montgomery/Northern Liberty Counties. Activity to the South is showing signs of increasing as well. Those storms S of I-10 are capable of going severe as we move toward the afternoon hours.

[jasons2k]

Yeah this summer hasn’t been bad at all (relatively). I’ve hit 100 only once and have had to run the sprinklers only a handful of times.

Feeder band to my north may be inching south a bit. Maybe I’ll get something today after all.

[tireman4]

Special Weather Statement
Weather Updated: Jul 15 11:43AM
Issued by the National Weather Service
For Inland Harris County, Texas
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT UNTIL 12:30PM CDT MON ...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT... AT 1143 AM CDT, DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR MANVEL, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH. WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... WESTERN PASADENA, PEARLAND, LEAGUE CITY, SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI CITY, FRIENDSWOOD, ALVIN, DICKINSON, SOUTH HOUSTON, WEBSTER, MANVEL, GREATER HOBBY AREA, CLEAR LAKE, FRESNO, SOUTH BELT / ELLINGTON, NASSAU BAY, ARCOLA, BROOKSIDE VILLAGE, IOWA COLONY, GOLFCREST / BELLFORT / REVEILLE AND MINNETEX. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM, AND MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS. TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER, CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN LEAGUE CITY. &&

[Cromagnum]

Looks like that Manvel cell came real close to my house. Hopefully got some good rain out of it.

[jasons2k]

And the feeder band, which had been a solid band for hours and hours, breaks-up into a cluster that mostly dances right around my house just as it approaches...

[tireman4]

WPC Midday Update

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0608
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
142 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2019

Areas affected...Southeast Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 151741Z - 152341Z

Summary...Convection developing on the southwest flank of an
existing rain band associated with T.D. Barry will be capable of
producing 2-3" hourly totals and will likely lead to flash
flooding.

Discussion...GOES IR imagery showed rapidly cooling cloud tops
associated with convection across portions of southwest Texas.
This activity is developing along the instability and moisture
gradient (SBCAPE from 2000-4000 J/kg and PWs 2.2" to 1.7"). Recent
radar trends from radar estimates of 1.5 to 2.5"/hr rates
developing with the convection, which is slowly moving to nearly
stationary.

The environment will remain conducive for heavy rainfall and flash
flooding through the afternoon hours, with slower storm motions,
ample moisture/instability, parallel mean flow to storm motions,
and focused areas of boundary layer moisture convergence. Given
the deep tropical moisture profiles, efficient rain rates of
2-3"/hr (locally higher possible) will be common and total amounts
through 23z may be in the 4-6" range. Right now the bulk of the
heaviest rain looks to fall north of the Houston metro area, but
some of the hi-res models suggest a south to southwestward
expansion of the heavy rainfall footprint which could impact the
greater Houston area.

Portions of the outlook area have seen heavy rainfall in the last
24 hours and as a result, have lowered flash flood guidance
(locally down to less than 1" in 1-hr). With this in mind, the
locally intense rain rates and potentially longer duration will
likely lead to some instances of flash flooding through the
afternoon.

Taylor

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...HGX...LCH...

[tireman4]

Weather Updated: Jul 15 12:55PM
Issued by the National Weather Service
For Inland Harris County, Texas
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT UNTIL 1:45PM CDT MON ...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT... AT 1254 PM CDT, DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER PINEHURST, MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH. WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... SOUTHERN CONROE, TOMBALL, PINEHURST, THE WOODLANDS, SPRING, OAK RIDGE NORTH, WALLER, SHENANDOAH, MAGNOLIA, STAGECOACH, WOODLOCH, TODD MISSION, THE WOODLANDS PAVILLION, HOOKS AIRPORT, CHATEAU WOODS AND SPLASHTOWN. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM, AND MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE. &&

[tireman4]

HGX Radar at 1 pm

[Pas_Bon]

It's dumped buckets....in sheets....in Conroe today.

[srainhoutx]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
118 PM CDT MON JUL 15 2019

GRIMES TX-MONTGOMERY TX-WALLER TX-HARRIS TX-
118 PM CDT MON JUL 15 2019

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN GRIMES COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
SOUTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
NORTHEASTERN WALLER COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
NORTHWESTERN HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 315 PM CDT.

* AT 116 PM CDT, DOPPLER RADAR AND AUTOMATED RAIN GAUGES INDICATED
HEAVY RAIN DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING.
OVERFLOWING POOR DRAINAGE AREAS WILL RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING IN
THE ADVISORY AREA. UP TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN HAVE ALREADY FALLEN.
A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
EAST THROUGH THE ADVISORY AREA BRINGING MULTIPLE PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
SOUTHWESTERN CONROE, TOMBALL, PRAIRIE VIEW, PINEHURST, THE
WOODLANDS, SPRING, OAK RIDGE NORTH, SHENANDOAH, MAGNOLIA,
STAGECOACH, WOODLOCH, TODD MISSION, THE WOODLANDS PAVILLION,
CHATEAU WOODS, PORTER HEIGHTS AND PORTER.

[srainhoutx]

The WPC has realigned their Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook. The Moderate Risk has been shifted over our SE Texas Region.

[dbrooks77346]

It's dumped buckets....in sheets....in Conroe today.

Yes it has. real dark over here at the job in the Woodlands. I Hope some slides over to my house in Atascocita.

[unome]

sparky http://map.blitzortung.org/#7.23/30.266/-95.524

[tireman4]

HGX Radar Update

[BlueJay]

It is an angry sky out there, but the rain has certainly cooled things off quite a bit!

[DoctorMu]

It's certainly more humid this morning across NW Harris County than it has been the past several day. I see locations just North of Cleveland picked up 3 to 5 inches in a skinny band of storms early this morning. Still a chance of some rain today and we do have a Marginal/Slight/Moderate Risk for Excessive Rainfall today, but we should settle into a more benign July pattern this week. Daily chances of seabreeze showers and storms will be the theme as an onshore flow re establishes this week in the wake of Barry. A July heat wave sets up for the Mid West and the Mid Atlantic as we look to remain in a mostly Easterly flow beneath that sub tropical ridge. There are some indications that a weak frontal boundary may sag into our Region early to mid next week. If that does occur, look for some increase for rain chances. I see no other tropical mischief brewing at this time across the North Atlantic Basin.

We had some of this scenario last summer where the SEC (southeast) and lower Midwest took one for the Texas team. The Death Ridge did not set up until August.

I'd take the easterly flow for the remainder of the summer without question. More clouds, lower temps, slight chance of rain.

[DoctorMu]

HGX Radar Update

Bring it.