July 2019: Warming Trend/Slight Chances For Rain

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tireman4
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:)
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tireman4 wrote: Fri Jun 21, 2019 10:20 am:)
Nicely said, tireman!
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tireman4
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Well, you know..LOL
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srainhoutx
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Taking a look ahead to the 4th of July Holiday Weather, there are indications that a surge of deep tropical air will arrive early next week into the Western Gulf. Some of the individual ensemble members attempt to spin up some sort of tropical mischief, but the best bet this far out is daily chances of showers and thunderstorms for our Region with a weakness between a Ridge to our West and a weak Ridge to the SE over Florida. The afternoon Updated Day 8 to 14 Outlook is suggesting such a potential. We will see how things develop into the weekend.
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srainhoutx
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The afternoon Updated Day 6 to 10 Outlook that takes us just beyond the 4th of July continues to advertise a wet and unsettled pattern. Those making plans for outdoor activities might want to follow our future sensible weather updates over the next week.
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srainhoutx
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A tropical wave axis is near the Yucatan Peninsula this morning as it moves WNW. Tropical showers and some storms are active this morning in the NW Caribbean Sea, but no tropical development is expected. This surge of deeper tropical moisture will continue to migrate toward the Texas Coast today and tomorrow with deeper moisture moving inland late Monday night through at least Thursday morning. Rain chances look to increase early Tuesday morning and continue into Wednesday. The 4th of July Outlook suggests scattered showers and storms may be possible during the day on Thursday and decreasing in areal coverage Thursday evening in time for the big 4th of July Fireworks!
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DoctorMu
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After the wave and July 4 holiday, we look high and dry in July on NWS, GFS, CMC, Ensemble until a potential backdoor front in mid July.

Get ready for reality after this week.

Hope for more liquid gold with the wave between July 4th fireworks.
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I do not see the rain chances completely disappearing throughout the first week of July for our Region. The Bermuda/SE Ridge is not overly strong and with an onshore flow continuing into late next week, I believe we will have at least an isolated shot of heat of the day seabreeze showers/storms into next weekend. Beyond that, the MJO may come into play across the Western Atlantic Basin and the Gulf as mid/late July comes around.
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good to hear !
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Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms will develop across portions of SE TX. A surge of tropical moisture still set to arrive Tuesday and Wednesday with some locally heavy rain. This surge of moisture still looks to move out of SE TX in time for the 4th of July fireworks but could still see scattered afternoon showers and a few thunderstorms through the upcoming weekend.
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tireman4
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00
FXUS64 KHGX 010842
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
342 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2019

.SHORT TERM [Today Through Wednesday]...
GOES PW product shows values in the 1.6-1.9" range across northern
parts of the CWA tapering down to around 1.4" further south
closer to the coast and offshore. Starting to see a few returns
pop up on radar just north of the area...closer in proximity to
the inverted trof axis and to a circulation near the Arklatex. For
today, expect warmer temps with some iso/sct precip developing
inland with daytime heating and the seabreeze. Expect this to
dissipate soon after sunset with the loss of heating followed by a
mostly quiet overnight period.

A surge of deeper Gulf moisture is still forecast to make its way
northward into the area Tuesday and Wednesday bringing periods of
showers and embedded tstms. Jet streak will be moving up from
south TX on Tues which could enhance overall lift as parts of the
region become situated in the RRQ, but otherwise don`t see much of
a focusing mechanism for widespread heavy rains or significant wx
other than the typical localized heavy downpours that come w/ a
tropical airmass. 47

.LONG TERM [Wednesday Night Through Monday]...
Moisture levels decrease and and ridging builds in from the east
during this time period. Isolated daytime shra/tstm possible
during the daytime on the 4th, but don`t see much threatening the
nighttime firework shows as most, if not all, should be dissipated
by then. Otherwise...rising temps and even lower rain chances
Friday thru much of the the weekend. 47

&&

.MARINE...
Moderate southerly flow will persist today. Onshore flow further increases
tomorrow with sustained winds approaching SCEC criteria in the afternoon.
Period of SCEC conditions will occur through Thursday with increased
rip current risk possible. (In the coming days...any media messaging
the importance of swimming near a lifeguard and NOT at San Luis
Pass over the holiday would be much appreciated considering we
always seem to have some issues there on high beach attendance
days.) High pressure building over southeast Texas will bring
lighter winds on Friday through the weekend. Fowler

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail across the TAF sites today. Like the
past few days, isolated to scattered thunderstorm will form in the
afternoon hours which will bring localized lower CIGs and gusty,
erratic winds. Drier air along the coast may prevent activity from
forming near SGR, GLS, and LBX. The best chance for precipitation
comes between 18z to 00z as the sea breeze pushes inland. Fowler

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 89 73 90 73 89 / 40 10 50 20 50
Houston (IAH) 90 74 89 74 88 / 40 10 60 50 60
Galveston (GLS) 89 80 87 79 89 / 10 20 50 60 50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$
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DoctorMu
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srainhoutx wrote: Sun Jun 30, 2019 3:11 pm I do not see the rain chances completely disappearing throughout the first week of July for our Region. The Bermuda/SE Ridge is not overly strong and with an onshore flow continuing into late next week, I believe we will have at least an isolated shot of heat of the day seabreeze showers/storms into next weekend. Beyond that, the MJO may come into play across the Western Atlantic Basin and the Gulf as mid/late July comes around.

Harris Co will see some rain after this week on a day to day basis. Unless we up in the Brazos Valley get easterlies or tropical mischief, the sea breeze in July/August hits a wall around Navasota (aka the AggieDome).

In the meantime, rain chances are good through Wednesday, maybe July 4th with the Gulf surge.
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00
FXUS64 KHGX 011824
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
124 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2019

.DISCUSSION...

Updated for the 18Z TAF issuance.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions currently observed at all TAF sites. VRB to partly
cloudy skies with southerly wind flow at 5-10 KTS will prevail
through this evening. SHRA and iso TSRA have been developing along
the northern portions of the CWA, occasionally affecting KCLL and
KUTS during the past two hours of so. As daytime heating
continues to increase, expect SHRA/TSRA coverage and intensity to
increase along the central and northern portions of the local area
this afternoon through evening. TSRA are capable of producing
lower vis due to heavy rainfall, frequent lightning, and VRB
winds of 10 KTS or more with gusts of around 25 KTS. SHRA could
affect the coastal TAF sites, but lower surface moisture should
keep the strongest activity more inland. VCTS and TEMPOs for TSRA
are in place for all TAF sites through around 02Z except KGLS and
KLBX. Most of the activity will dissipate after sunset, with
clear to partly cloudy skies and light VRB winds expected tonight
and overnight. Models are hinting at an increase in low level
moisture and SHRA activity along the waters and coastal regions
during the early morning hours Tuesday. A similar summertime
pattern can be expected Tuesday, with another round of SHRA/TSRA
developing throughout the afternoon hours. 24

&&
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tireman4 wrote: Mon Jul 01, 2019 2:00 pm 00
FXUS64 KHGX 011824
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
124 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2019

.DISCUSSION...

Updated for the 18Z TAF issuance.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions currently observed at all TAF sites. VRB to partly
cloudy skies with southerly wind flow at 5-10 KTS will prevail
through this evening. SHRA and iso TSRA have been developing along
the northern portions of the CWA, occasionally affecting KCLL and
KUTS during the past two hours of so. As daytime heating
continues to increase, expect SHRA/TSRA coverage and intensity to
increase along the central and northern portions of the local area
this afternoon through evening. TSRA are capable of producing
lower vis due to heavy rainfall, frequent lightning, and VRB
winds of 10 KTS or more with gusts of around 25 KTS. SHRA could
affect the coastal TAF sites, but lower surface moisture should
keep the strongest activity more inland. VCTS and TEMPOs for TSRA
are in place for all TAF sites through around 02Z except KGLS and
KLBX. Most of the activity will dissipate after sunset, with
clear to partly cloudy skies and light VRB winds expected tonight
and overnight. Models are hinting at an increase in low level
moisture and SHRA activity along the waters and coastal regions
during the early morning hours Tuesday. A similar summertime
pattern can be expected Tuesday, with another round of SHRA/TSRA
developing throughout the afternoon hours. 24

&&

We had another shower of 0.32 inches. The reservoirs and trees in CLL have never been happier heading into July.

An amazing 20.32 Inches of rain IMBY for May and June...so we're in good shape up here in the NW for the usual dry weather of July and August. I'm still pulling for a lot of overcast days until SEC season! haha
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DoctorMu wrote: Mon Jul 01, 2019 3:04 pm
tireman4 wrote: Mon Jul 01, 2019 2:00 pm 00
FXUS64 KHGX 011824
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
124 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2019

.DISCUSSION...

Updated for the 18Z TAF issuance.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions currently observed at all TAF sites. VRB to partly
cloudy skies with southerly wind flow at 5-10 KTS will prevail
through this evening. SHRA and iso TSRA have been developing along
the northern portions of the CWA, occasionally affecting KCLL and
KUTS during the past two hours of so. As daytime heating
continues to increase, expect SHRA/TSRA coverage and intensity to
increase along the central and northern portions of the local area
this afternoon through evening. TSRA are capable of producing
lower vis due to heavy rainfall, frequent lightning, and VRB
winds of 10 KTS or more with gusts of around 25 KTS. SHRA could
affect the coastal TAF sites, but lower surface moisture should
keep the strongest activity more inland. VCTS and TEMPOs for TSRA
are in place for all TAF sites through around 02Z except KGLS and
KLBX. Most of the activity will dissipate after sunset, with
clear to partly cloudy skies and light VRB winds expected tonight
and overnight. Models are hinting at an increase in low level
moisture and SHRA activity along the waters and coastal regions
during the early morning hours Tuesday. A similar summertime
pattern can be expected Tuesday, with another round of SHRA/TSRA
developing throughout the afternoon hours. 24

&&

We had another shower of 0.32 inches. The reservoirs and trees in CLL have never been happier heading into July.

An amazing 20.32 Inches of rain IMBY for May and June...so we're in good shape up here in the NW for the usual dry weather of July and August. I'm still pulling for a lot of overcast days until SEC season! haha

Amen. You should crash our tailgate and we can have a wxinfinity tailgate!
Team #NeverSummer
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 020947
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
447 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2019

.SHORT TERM [Today Through Thursday]...
Isolated/widely scattered showers are continuing to make their way
onshore this morning as the slightly deeper moisture that has been
lingering over the western Gulf begins to move north. We`ll likely
see an increase in coverage by this afternoon with daytime heating
and perhaps some enhanced lift as rather well-defined/-progged jet
streak approaches from the S/SW. However, still not seeing much by
way of a low-level focus (except maybe the seabreeze) at this time
so not too confident with the idea of widespread heavy rain/severe
weather for this afternoon. But given this tropical airmass moving
into the region, locally heavy downpours are possible. Activity is
expected to decrease late this evening (with the loss of heating).
Weds should be a close repeat of today with the lingering tropical
moisture and a favorable position of the jet streak aloft. However
lingering outflow/meso boundaries could be more of a factor.

Things will begin to dry out by Weds night as the jet streak/deep-
er moisture moves out to the NNE and high pressure builds in from
the east. 41

&&

.LONG TERM [Thursday Night Through Tuesday]...
Not a lot of issues expected as high pressure deepens across the
region and holds in place. Very low/nil POPs as the airmass dries
and temperatures at/near seasonal norms prevailing (i.e. Highs in
the lower to mid 90s inland...around 90 at the coast. Lows in the
mid 70s inland and around 80 at the coast.) Will reintroduce some
low POPs (mainly daytime) for the start of next week. 41

&&

.AVIATION...
Patchy MVFR ceilings/visibility developing along a line from KBYY to
KTME-KCXO and southeastward but this will be expanding northwest
into the CLL area before sunrise. Scattered showers early this
morning transitioning into scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms by late morning/early afternoon. Daytime heating
should really get the coverage going by 18z. Rich PW air spreading
into the region and upper low with very favorable lift taking place
across SETX this afternoon. Gusty winds/reduced visibility of 1 mile
likely in the stronger downpours. Loss of heating should lead to a
decrease in coverage around 01z and then expect the very moist
airmass over the area to lead to redevelopment after midnight along
the coast and spreading inland to the KIAH/KHOU areas by 12z/Wed.
45
&&

.MARINE...
Persistent onshore flow with an increase in moisture today so
expecting widespread showers and thunderstorms over the Gulf waters
this morning spreading inland late morning/afternoon. Southerly
winds 8-15 knots should be the norm through most of the week with a
gradual weakening trend Friday and then lighter winds through the
weekend. May see brief landbreeze development near sunrise Friday-
Sunday. Coverage of the showers and thunderstorms today and
Wednesday should diminish greatly Thursday as upper ridging takes
hold.
45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 89 73 87 74 92 / 50 40 60 30 20
Houston (IAH) 89 75 90 76 93 / 70 50 60 30 20
Galveston (GLS) 88 79 88 80 91 / 60 40 50 20 20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$
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tireman4
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NWS Update
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tireman4 wrote: Tue Jul 02, 2019 8:03 amNWS Update
Thanks posting. I was gonna say doesn’t seem very tropical out today. Suns brighter than ever in Bmt! Now i know its not till later today.
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
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The countdown is officially on to Fall/Winter! We are officially in the 2nd half of the year.
Team #NeverSummer
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 021555
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1055 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2019

.UPDATE...
Still looking at increasing shower and thunderstorm coverage for the
rest of the morning and on through the afternoon hours. Deep tropical
moisture in the western Gulf waters continues to work its way northward
and will help to enhance the area`s rain chances both today and tomorrow.
Locally heavy downpours are possible. 42
&&
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