July 2019: Warming Trend/Slight Chances For Rain

[Rip76]

We may need to monitor the tail end of that frontal boundary. I am seeing waves of low pressure rippling along the front and some suggestions of a possible weak surface low attempting to form Wednesday/Thursday. As the front washes out, a weak easterly flow may push rain chances back into the Coast next weekend.

I was going to ask about this.

[Cromagnum]

Big old goose egg on rain

[unome]

what a welcome temp drop, even if the rain doesn't make it here !

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/zoa/mwmap2.php?map=houston

(better if it does, though)

[MontgomeryCoWx]

42 days until Climatological Fall. 39 days until SEC Football starts.

[DoctorMu]

42 days until Climatological Fall. 39 days until SEC Football starts.

haha Tell me about it.

Our old Craftsman lawnmower is nearing retirement - meaning it can't handle the back lawn anymore, which has uphills, sidehills, bumpy areas, some thick grass.. So I went up the Waxahachie, which is a beautiful small town NE of Hillsborough to pick up something more beastly with a 190CC Honda mower. I set it pretty high for St. Augustine in the summer. Most of our neighbors really "scalp" their lawns. But the new beast cuts through the grass like buttah.

However, it's major watering time, now! Given that it is July 21, and this is only my 3rd full watering evening, I can't complain too much for the Brazos Valley in the summer.

NOAA is hanging in there with a 50% chance of rain on Tuesday.

[Texaspirate11]

STILL NO RAIN ON SUNDAY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[jasons2k]

I’m glad I got something yesterday - a nice .90” - because rain chances for tomorrow were lowered to 40%, after showing 60% for days...

[Belmer]

Pretty impressive cold front moving through this week. PWATs will be well below an inch beginning early Wednesday morning lasting through Thursday before a more southerly flow returns on Friday morning. Wednesday & Thursday is going to feel great! If you have to travel out west towards Austin and San Antonio, PWATs could run below 0.50" on Thursday. Not something that happens very often for the month we're in...

[tireman4]

00
FXUS64 KHGX 221140
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
640 AM CDT Mon Jul 22 2019

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...

In general, pretty high confidence in broad scenario - much like
yesterday, with possible MVFR early becoming VFR. Followed in the
afternoon by more shower/storm coverage than yesterday. Then a
break tonight, with chances coming up again late tonight into
tomorrow morning as a cold front approaches.

Of less confidence will be timing/intensity of these changes
through the TAF period. Have a first guess at things in here, but
don`t be surprised if later forecasts nudge things a little bit
forward or back.

Beyond the scope of the current TAFs, but look for winds to swing
around to more northwesterly, then northerly tomorrow.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 417 AM CDT Mon Jul 22 2019/...

.DISCUSSION...

- Best chances of showers and thunderstorms look to be today into tonight
with models trending drier on Tuesday as the front pushes into
the area.
- Frontal boundary on track to push into the area early Tuesday
with drier air behind it.
- Low temperatures Wed/Thur should be below normal but likely stay
above records.
- Rain chances increase again for the weekend.


.SHORT TERM [Today and Tonight]...

Satellite shows a veil of mainly high clouds, with surface obs
revealing lesser amounts of low clouds underneath that veil
across Southeast Texas. GOES-East also shows an influx of deep
moisture from the Gulf onto the Upper Texas coast with
precipitable water values ranging from 1.8 inches well inland to
2.3 inches right on the coastline.

This increase in moisture will help support higher rain chances
today for a large chunk of the area. Indeed, nocturnal showers
are already beginning to pop up over the Gulf, a bit earlier than
24 hours ago. With the incoming cold front still a good ways off
yet, the best potential will again focus on and near the seabreeze
boundary this afternoon while instability is maximized thanks to
daytime heating. Forecast soundings also reveal a pretty decent
looking inverted-V signature in the boundary layer, so things may
get a bit gusty in the strongest of today`s storms. That said,
there`s not a lot of wind in the column, and DCAPEs are rather
limited, so while gusty winds are possible, my expectation is that
things should stay beneath severe thresholds. *knocks on wood*

Other than the more enhanced diurnal rainfall pattern, today
should feel a good bit like yesterday. Temperatures are running a
touch below 24 hours ago so morning lows may manage to slip
underneath records, but will still be quite warm. The high floor
sets us up for another warm day, with expectations that highs are
more likely to be a bit cooler than yesterday, given the
expectation of more clouds/rain in the picture. The emphasis in
that last sentence is very much on "a bit".

For tonight, the diurnal will again fall off with the loss of
solar heating towards sunset. However, rain chances will begin to
creep up in the far north as our very heavily advertised cold
front finally starts to work its way into the picture. Of course,
now that we`re at the moment of truth, the convective-allowing
guidance is suddenly beginning to get cold front about rain and
storms along the front, while the parameterized models are still
fans of rain. Both approaches have their pros and cons, so I`m not
exactly sure which - if either - story to buy into on here. One
thing that does look to be hinted at in the guidance is a loose
pre-frontal trough. This may shift winds a little early, reducing
surface convergence. Without a very dynamic setup aloft and
relatively poor lapse rates, I wonder if this is enough to cause
the CAMs reticence to fire widespread rainfall. So, in the end,
I`m going to hedge my bets, and roll with a blend here that takes
down PoPs, but not as aggressively as a CAM-only consensus might
suggest.

Luchs


.LONG TERM [Tuesday Through Monday]...

As expected, upper level ridge has formed over the 4 Corners
Region with a trough digging into the Plains/Midwest. Surface
analysis at 08Z has frontal boundary through central Oklahoma into
the Texas Panhandle. Overall basic forecast is on track with the
front reaching the area tonight and pushing through the area
Tuesday morning. Models had been fairly aggressive with rain
chances along/ahead of the front but not seeing that trend any
more. In fact, the trend looks to be for lower rain chances so we
have had to tap the breaks a bit with our PoP forecast. We still
think there could be some spots with chances in the 50-60 percent
range but this is lower than the 70s we had before. The hi-res
models have come in fairly dry and even the synoptic models show
lower QPF amounts on Tuesday. The main question now is why and
what has changed in the models. Looking at various model
soundings, it looks like the models are now picking up on some
drier air at 500mb and above in the 09Z to 15Z Tuesday time frame
that moves into the area quickly as the trough axis passes. This
drier air looks to be a bit subsident and once it entrains into
any updraft it will likely dissipate the convection. So the better
chances of showers and storms looks to be more Monday night now
instead of later on Tuesday. Chances do look higher along the
coast and out into the Gulf.

Wednesday through Friday looks to be relatively cooler and drier
as high pressure moves from the Plains towards the Mid-Atlantic.
We are still on track for dewpoints in the 50s/60s and low
temperatures in the upper 60s for most of the area. Looking at
the record low temperatures for Wednesday and Thursday, I think
we will stay above those levels by a couple of degrees.

It is still looking like moisture return occurs Friday into
Saturday with precipitation chances increasing accordingly. We
went up to 50 PoPs for Saturday which seems a bit ambitious. Still
this is in line with GFS/ECMWF PoPs so not a bad place to start
with adjustments likely through the next few forecast cycles.

Overpeck


.MARINE...

With high pressure south of New Orleans, and weak low pressure
over the Mexican mountains, the general pattern of southerly winds
continues. However, tonight it`s a more S/SW pattern, and since
the pressure gradient is not terribly tight, we may even see a bit
more veering with a very small nocturnal landbreeze feature. As
the sun rises through the morning, though, look for things to snap
back to a more sustained southerly wind.

As one might expect, with all this talk of "weak" features and
discussion of nuance, wind speeds will be light to moderate
through tonight. That begins to change tomorrow as an infrequent
summer cold front drops towards the waters tomorrow. Watch for
winds to veer to northwesterly and northerly through the day into
early evening, and continue veering right on through to
northeasterly by Wednesday morning. Wind speeds will also pick up,
and a SCEC may be needed Tuesday night into Wednesday for at least
some of the waters.

With this front lifting back north later in the week, winds will
take on a greater onshore component in the back half of the work
week, reaching southeasterly for the end of the week and next
the weekend.


.CLIMATE...

Hobby Airport in Houston and Scholes Field at Galveston both
managed to tie record warm minimum temperatures yesterday with the
continued warm morning temperatures. Galveston tied its record
from 1995, while Hobby`s min temp matched a record from 1953.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 96 76 90 68 90 / 10 20 20 10 0
Houston (IAH) 94 77 90 71 90 / 30 30 50 10 0
Galveston (GLS) 89 81 88 77 87 / 30 40 60 50 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Luchs
LONG TERM...Overpeck
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...Luchs
CLIMATE...Luchs

[tireman4]

Today's Forecast

[Cromagnum]

All that rain out over the gulf waters where the fish don't care...

[Texaspirate11]

Looks to be some rain coming in from the GOM...unless it circumvents me once again, like yesterday
Holding out hope for some wet stuff.

[srainhoutx]

Hopefully we can squeeze out some showers/storms this afternoon with daytime heating in this slightly greater than 2 inch PW's, because the guidance trends do not favor much of any appreciable rainfall after tonight. Our rare cold front is crossing the Red River and should be into our Region tomorrow morning with its much drier air and cooler temperatures. Some of the early 12Z guidance is suggesting some upper 50's and low 60's for early morning lows away from the Urban heat island Wednesday/Thursday. I do believe that rain chance will return late this week into the weekend as the Gulf opens back up and moisture levels increase dramatically. I do see a very robust Convectively Coupled Kelvin Wave entering the Western Atlantic Basin later this week. That atmospheric feature may assist with deeper tropical convection as it passes. We also may need to keep a closer eye on the tropics as July ends and August begins. It's getting closer to that time of year when eyes turn keenly to the Gulf and Caribbean Sea as well as the open Atlantic.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Hopefully we can squeeze out some showers/storms this afternoon with daytime heating in this slightly greater than 2 inch PW's, because the guidance trends do not favor much of any appreciable rainfall after tonight. Our rare cold front is crossing the Red River and should be into our Region tomorrow morning with its much drier air and cooler temperatures. Some of the early 12Z guidance is suggesting some upper 50's and low 60's for early morning lows away from the Urban heat island Wednesday/Thursday. I do believe that rain chance will return late this week into the weekend as the Gulf opens back up and moisture levels increase dramatically. I do see a very robust Convectively Coupled Kelvin Wave entering the Western Atlantic Basin later this week. That atmospheric feature may assist with deeper tropical convection as it passes. We also may need to keep a closer eye on the tropics as July ends and August begins. It's getting closer to that time of year when eyes turn keenly to the Gulf and Caribbean Sea as well as the open Atlantic.

Upper 50s in late July

PLEASE?

[DoctorMu]

STILL NO RAIN ON SUNDAY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Welcome to my world!

Incredibly, over 9 inches of rain in May, over 10 in or rain in June IMBY, but only

0.49 inches of rain in July

Feast or famine.

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 221728
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1228 PM CDT Mon Jul 22 2019

.AVIATION...
12z sounding from LCH shows a convective temperature of 84 degrees
and with cirrus thinning, feel temperatures will warm. Convection
is expected to increase over the region with further heating.
After collaboration with CWSU, have pulled the TEMPO for KIAH but
will watch trends carefully as the HRRR and other short tern
guidance are very bullish with PoPs. Should be a gap this evening
but a weak pre-frontal trough will slide through the area and
winds will shift to the N-NW. A cold front will approach the area
between 03-06 and slowly cross the area. Have added VCSH/VCTS for
northern TAF sites between 03-06z and between 09-12z over the
southern TAF sites. 43

&&

[jasons2k]

Convective Temperature: 84
Current Temperature at my house: 93

Storms in vicinity: 0

[unome]

meanwhile, near Florida, TD Three (not currently forecast to become a TC)

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#Three

Code: Select all

AL, 03, 2019072000,   , BEST,   0, 235N,  637W,  20, 1015, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1016,  100,  50,   0,   0,    ,   0,    ,   0,   0, GENESIS007,  ,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 007, 
AL, 03, 2019072006,   , BEST,   0, 235N,  651W,  20, 1015, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1016,  100,  50,   0,   0,    ,   0,    ,   0,   0, GENESIS007,  ,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 007, 
AL, 03, 2019072012,   , BEST,   0, 235N,  665W,  20, 1015, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1016,  100,  50,   0,   0,    ,   0,    ,   0,   0, GENESIS007,  ,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 007, 
AL, 03, 2019072018,   , BEST,   0, 235N,  679W,  25, 1014, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1016,  100,  50,   0,   0,    ,   0,    ,   0,   0, GENESIS007,  ,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 007, 
AL, 03, 2019072100,   , BEST,   0, 235N,  693W,  25, 1014, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1016,  100,  50,   0,   0,    ,   0,    ,   0,   0, GENESIS007,  ,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 007, SPAWNINVEST, al782019 to al942019, 
AL, 03, 2019072106,   , BEST,   0, 235N,  707W,  25, 1014, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1016,  100,  50,   0,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, S,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 007, 
AL, 03, 2019072112,   , BEST,   0, 236N,  721W,  25, 1014, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1017,  100,  50,   0,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, S,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 007, 
AL, 03, 2019072118,   , BEST,   0, 237N,  735W,  25, 1014, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1017,  100,  50,   0,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, S,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 007, 
AL, 03, 2019072200,   , BEST,   0, 239N,  749W,  25, 1014, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1017,  100,  50,   0,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, S,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 007, 
AL, 03, 2019072206,   , BEST,   0, 242N,  763W,  25, 1014, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1017,  100,  50,   0,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, S,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 007, 
AL, 03, 2019072212,   , BEST,   0, 246N,  775W,  25, 1013, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1016,  100,  50,   0,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, S,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 007, 
AL, 03, 2019072218,   , BEST,   0, 253N,  783W,  25, 1013, DB,  34, NEQ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1016,  100,  50,  35,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,      THREE, S,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 007, TRANSITIONED, alA42019 to al032019, 

[Rip76]

Convective Temperature: 84
Current Temperature at my house: 93

Storms in vicinity: 0

[Cromagnum]

Not a drop at my house.