INVEST 92L

[Hardcoreweather]

[ticka1]

Paul's link from the other post.

http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/IPPS/html/MS ... /index.htm

[Paul]

The GFDL will be running here in a few minutes...that will give us a clue....then the EURO tonight at 1am....aint staying up for that.....BAMM looks to be my pick at the moment just by going off the SHIPS intensity....

[Paul]

steering layers....currently

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html

[wxman57]

steering layers....currently

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html

Note the weakness in the ridge to the north. Bermuda high isn't very strong. That should allow the disturbance to steadily gain latitude - closer to moderate wind shear with time.

[gocuse22]

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early1.png

models.

[Paul]

steering layers....currently

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html

Note the weakness in the ridge to the north. Bermuda high isn't very strong. That should allow the disturbance to steadily gain latitude - closer to moderate wind shear with time.

true..... but the weaker or longer it takes to organized the more west it moves....it does look though that it is getting its act together tonight.

[Paul]

12Z GFS shears out 92L before it has a chance to develope.....at 144hr...interesting since the SHIPS shows relevtively light shear for some time....lets see what the EURO does tonight.

[ticka1]

Code orange now:

[Ptarmigan]

I think Code Red is likely.

HWRF Model.

[wxdata]

track_early1[1].png

[srainhoutx]

I suspect we are well on the way to our first depression of the year at least. Looking a bit more organized this morning as well.


000
AXNT20 KNHC 131101
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN JUN 13 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC...

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FOCUSED ON A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 07N34W IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC. EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE ITCZ AXIS...THE UPPER AND LOWER LEVEL ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT
FAVORABLE CHARACTERISTICS FOR CONTINUED ORGANIZATION OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A LARGE AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS
NOTED IN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY THIS MORNING
EXTENDING FROM THE EQUATOR TO 11N BETWEEN 25W-41W. THE MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY SURROUNDING THE LOW IS GENERATING NUMEROUS
MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION FROM THE EQUATOR TO 13N
BETWEEN 30W-42W. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
IS CENTERED OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 16N25W AND EXTENDS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SW TO NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA NEAR
COASTAL SURINAME. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS HELPING TO VENTILATE CONVECTION AND SUSTAIN
LIFT IN THE SURFACE TO MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION.

[srainhoutx]

[srainhoutx]

ABNT20 KNHC 131730
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN JUN 13 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 975 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAVE BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/KIMBERLAIN

[Paul]

IMO, This will be a TD and Named in the next few days....how long its named is the big question. Shear increases as it gains latitude....also this is a BIG dude....reminds me of Ike as it was unwound going over Cuba.....big circulation, multiple feeder bands...just a matter of time...

the EURO still not impressed....18z BAMMS showed a little more westerly also....PR might be under the gun...

[Paul]

12z GFDL and HWRF decapitates it as it approaches PR.ala 12z EURO...only the CMC keeps it together and under PR....

safe to say if it goes above PR then decapitation, below is a whole different ball game.

[Paul]

BTW- for you 2k junkies out there the site is down.....ED this was not directed to you... you are banned to that famous site Eastern....

[srainhoutx]

BTW- for you 2k junkies out there the site is down.....

Thanks for the update Paul.

Looking beter as time goes on. I would not be surprise to see an upgrade sometime tomorrow if it persists and gets a bit of convective help during D Max overnight. VIS Imagery tomorrow morning will be telling.

[wxman57]

Good link Ptarmigan posted to Ryan Maue's site with HWRF models. I traced the link back and found an animation of the 12Z run:

http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/extreme/ ... _anim.html

Note that the next runs will have a different URL, but you can just edit the URL to put in the correct date/time group in the 2 places. Also note that winds in the model run are at 900mb not the surface. That's probably around the peak wind height of a TC, so there would be some reduction needed to bring them to the surface, maybe 70%.

[Paul]

Good link Ptarmigan posted to Ryan Maue's site with HWRF models. I traced the link back and found an animation of the 12Z run:

http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/extreme/ ... _anim.html

Note that the next runs will have a different URL, but you can just edit the URL to put in the correct date/time group in the 2 places. Also note that winds in the model run are at 900mb not the surface. That's probably around the peak wind height of a TC, so there would be some reduction needed to bring them to the surface, maybe 70%.

I never put to much stock in the HWRF...wasnt it supposed to replace the GFDL at one point....they always over due the intensity and very erratic with track....