I see 93E isn't modeled to head toward our direction, but what about the east coast storms down there ? Is this headed toward TX?srainhoutx wrote: ↑Tue Jun 25, 2019 7:23 amYou can see the moisture channel all the back down to EPAC Invest 93Eunome wrote: ↑Tue Jun 25, 2019 7:19 am east coast of Mexico is getting deluged https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/s ... §or=gm
June 2019: Showers/Storms Increasing To End June
-
srainhoutx
- Site Admin
- Posts: 19616
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- Contact:
Not likely, but a general unsettled pattern does look to be developing for the Eastern Pacific, Mexico and Texas. A robust Kelvin Wave is likely assisting EPAC Invest 93E in its organization process and the CCKW likely will spin up additional tropical cyclones the next couple of weeks. Nocturnal thunderstorm complexes seem likely over Mexico into the weekend and may increase as a surge of deep tropical moisture arrives over the Yucatan this weekend and spreads N and W around the Western flank of a sub tropical Ridge located to our East. This weekend we likely will see an inverted trough move out of Louisiana into the Eastern half of Texas increasing daily rain chances once again. The 4th of July Holiday period could be rather unsettled and we will have that discussion in the July Topic as the week progresses. I do believe our boring weather pattern has ended for the time being.unome wrote: ↑Tue Jun 25, 2019 7:33 amI see 93E isn't modeled to head toward our direction, but what about the east coast storms down there ? Is this headed toward TX?srainhoutx wrote: ↑Tue Jun 25, 2019 7:23 amYou can see the moisture channel all the back down to EPAC Invest 93Eunome wrote: ↑Tue Jun 25, 2019 7:19 am east coast of Mexico is getting deluged https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/s ... §or=gm
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a wealth of information, as always - really appreciate yor insight srainsrainhoutx wrote: ↑Tue Jun 25, 2019 7:51 amNot likely, but a general unsettled pattern does look to be developing for the Eastern Pacific, Mexico and Texas. A robust Kelvin Wave is likely assisting EPAC Invest 93E in its organization process and the CCKW likely will spin up additional tropical cyclones the next couple of weeks. Nocturnal thunderstorm complexes seem likely over Mexico into the weekend and may increase as a surge of deep tropical moisture arrives over the Yucatan this weekend and spreads N and W around the Western flank of a sub tropical Ridge located to our East. This weekend we likely will see an inverted trough move out of Louisiana into the Eastern half of Texas increasing daily rain chances once again. The 4th of July Holiday period could be rather unsettled and we will have that discussion in the July Topic as the week progresses. I do believe our boring weather pattern has ended for the time being.unome wrote: ↑Tue Jun 25, 2019 7:33 amI see 93E isn't modeled to head toward our direction, but what about the east coast storms down there ? Is this headed toward TX?srainhoutx wrote: ↑Tue Jun 25, 2019 7:23 am
You can see the moisture channel all the back down to EPAC Invest 93E
So does this mornings storms mean we are in clear for this evening?
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srainhoutx
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The short fuse meso models such as the HRRR and the NAM do suggest storms develop back down around Matagorda Bay/Victoria later this morning/early afternoon and progress NE into our Region. We need to get a shortwave located near S Central Texas to pass before we settled down for a couple of days.
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tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4488
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- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
000
FXUS64 KHGX 250929
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
429 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2019
.DISCUSSION...
Summary
- A weak trough passage today, with its associated energy in
tandem with a passing jet streak, will spark off scattered and
randomly placed pockets of showers and thunderstorms through the
daytime hours. Main threat would be locally high rainfall
leading to nuisance flooding due to slow storm movement.
- Overall mid to late week pattern will be one of less
precipitation as ridging builds in at all levels. Partially
cloudy days with near normal daily temperatures and weaker
onshore breezes. Slightly drier air will regulate maximum heat
indices to the upper 90s, maybe topping out at 100 F in some
spots.
- A developing inverted trough this weekend will increase overall
precipitation coverage going into early July.
.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Wednesday]...
Enhanced lift on the east side of shortwave axis extending from cntl-
s TX will be making its way into the region today. Complex of precip
moving off the lower Tx coast looks to have temporarily disrupted
llvl wind flow along the upper Tx coast to more of a ne direction.
But once it returns to more of an onshore direction, deeper Gulf
moisture should make its way back into se TX with PW`s climbing into
the 2-2.3" range. Low convective temps, fcst CAPEs 3-4k, LI`s -5-
10, and depending on model of choice possibly a favorable position
of the jet streak should aid in sct to numerous showers/tstms today.
Look for increasing coverage near the coast this morning...expanding
inland throughout the day. Can`t rule out a few embedded pulse
strong/svr cells. Also wouldn`t be surprised to see some localized
areas that see a quick 1-3" downpour.
Precip should gradually taper off this evening with the loss of
heating. Iso/sct activity can be expected on Wed with lingering 1.8-
2.1" PW`s and seabreeze/daytime heating but overall coverage should
not be as much as we`ll probably see today considering forcing &
instability shouldn`t be as favorable. 47
&&
.LONG TERM [Wednesday Night Through Tuesday]...
Upper ridging begins to develop over the CONUS southern latitudes
and aids in suppressing any significant late work week convection.
Lower clouds and more widespread (rural) fog development during
the overnight Thursday and Friday morning hours focused primarily
west of the Interstate 45 corridor. Overall column moisture will
drop to around 1.5 inch pwats as southeasterly mid-layer flow
advects in periods of slightly higher moisture. This will translate
to partially cloudy days with relatively lower daytime humidity.
While onshore winds will generally be light and ambient
temperatures will climb into the lower 90s by noon, cloud cover
and dew points mixing out into the afternoon middle to upper 60s
will equate to maximum heat indices in the middle to upper 90s.
Pop up showers and maybe an isolated thunderstorm may form within
an uncapped and unstable afternoon air mass, focused along or just
behind the inland advancing local mesoscale sea and bay breezes.
A height weakness channel forms over eastern Texas this coming
weekend that will increase weekend POPs up into slight to low end
chance range. Models are all over the place with QPF placement
but all signal to a higher frequency of return precipitation.
Confidence lays in the area picking up more rain if timing of
higher lobes of moisture-rich air moving in from the Gulf come
across during the afternoon (or not). In summer-like fashion,
there will be little day-to-day difference in the diurnal
temperature curve with near to slightly above normal morning
minimum and afternoon maximum T values. 31
&&
.MARINE...
The passage of a weak trough and associated disturbances will
increase areal daytime maritime shower and thunderstorm coverage
today. Caution flags have been hoisted for the 20-60 nm offshore
waters through the afternoon as southeast winds have been running
around 15 to 20 knots. This recent persistent onshore fetch will
weaken through the remainder of the work week as eastern surface
high pressure expands into the northwestern Gulf. Significant wave
heights will fall to an average 1 to 2 feet by Friday afternoon
and remain that way through Monday. Rain chances will increase
over the weekend as western Gulf upper ridging weakens to general
troughiness and allows more southern Gulf disturbances to travel
northward into our local waters. 31
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 89 75 92 73 93 / 50 30 20 10 10
Houston (IAH) 89 76 92 75 95 / 50 30 20 10 20
Galveston (GLS) 88 81 89 81 90 / 50 30 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk until 5 AM CDT early this morning for the
following zones: Brazoria Islands...Galveston Island and
Bolivar Peninsula...Matagorda Islands.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 4 AM CDT early this
morning for the following zones: Coastal waters from
Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal
waters from High Island to Freeport TX out 20
NM...Matagorda Bay.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION through this afternoon for
the following zones: Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship
Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to
Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...31
SHORT TERM...47
LONG TERM...31
AVIATION...47
MARINE...31
FXUS64 KHGX 250929
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
429 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2019
.DISCUSSION...
Summary
- A weak trough passage today, with its associated energy in
tandem with a passing jet streak, will spark off scattered and
randomly placed pockets of showers and thunderstorms through the
daytime hours. Main threat would be locally high rainfall
leading to nuisance flooding due to slow storm movement.
- Overall mid to late week pattern will be one of less
precipitation as ridging builds in at all levels. Partially
cloudy days with near normal daily temperatures and weaker
onshore breezes. Slightly drier air will regulate maximum heat
indices to the upper 90s, maybe topping out at 100 F in some
spots.
- A developing inverted trough this weekend will increase overall
precipitation coverage going into early July.
.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Wednesday]...
Enhanced lift on the east side of shortwave axis extending from cntl-
s TX will be making its way into the region today. Complex of precip
moving off the lower Tx coast looks to have temporarily disrupted
llvl wind flow along the upper Tx coast to more of a ne direction.
But once it returns to more of an onshore direction, deeper Gulf
moisture should make its way back into se TX with PW`s climbing into
the 2-2.3" range. Low convective temps, fcst CAPEs 3-4k, LI`s -5-
10, and depending on model of choice possibly a favorable position
of the jet streak should aid in sct to numerous showers/tstms today.
Look for increasing coverage near the coast this morning...expanding
inland throughout the day. Can`t rule out a few embedded pulse
strong/svr cells. Also wouldn`t be surprised to see some localized
areas that see a quick 1-3" downpour.
Precip should gradually taper off this evening with the loss of
heating. Iso/sct activity can be expected on Wed with lingering 1.8-
2.1" PW`s and seabreeze/daytime heating but overall coverage should
not be as much as we`ll probably see today considering forcing &
instability shouldn`t be as favorable. 47
&&
.LONG TERM [Wednesday Night Through Tuesday]...
Upper ridging begins to develop over the CONUS southern latitudes
and aids in suppressing any significant late work week convection.
Lower clouds and more widespread (rural) fog development during
the overnight Thursday and Friday morning hours focused primarily
west of the Interstate 45 corridor. Overall column moisture will
drop to around 1.5 inch pwats as southeasterly mid-layer flow
advects in periods of slightly higher moisture. This will translate
to partially cloudy days with relatively lower daytime humidity.
While onshore winds will generally be light and ambient
temperatures will climb into the lower 90s by noon, cloud cover
and dew points mixing out into the afternoon middle to upper 60s
will equate to maximum heat indices in the middle to upper 90s.
Pop up showers and maybe an isolated thunderstorm may form within
an uncapped and unstable afternoon air mass, focused along or just
behind the inland advancing local mesoscale sea and bay breezes.
A height weakness channel forms over eastern Texas this coming
weekend that will increase weekend POPs up into slight to low end
chance range. Models are all over the place with QPF placement
but all signal to a higher frequency of return precipitation.
Confidence lays in the area picking up more rain if timing of
higher lobes of moisture-rich air moving in from the Gulf come
across during the afternoon (or not). In summer-like fashion,
there will be little day-to-day difference in the diurnal
temperature curve with near to slightly above normal morning
minimum and afternoon maximum T values. 31
&&
.MARINE...
The passage of a weak trough and associated disturbances will
increase areal daytime maritime shower and thunderstorm coverage
today. Caution flags have been hoisted for the 20-60 nm offshore
waters through the afternoon as southeast winds have been running
around 15 to 20 knots. This recent persistent onshore fetch will
weaken through the remainder of the work week as eastern surface
high pressure expands into the northwestern Gulf. Significant wave
heights will fall to an average 1 to 2 feet by Friday afternoon
and remain that way through Monday. Rain chances will increase
over the weekend as western Gulf upper ridging weakens to general
troughiness and allows more southern Gulf disturbances to travel
northward into our local waters. 31
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 89 75 92 73 93 / 50 30 20 10 10
Houston (IAH) 89 76 92 75 95 / 50 30 20 10 20
Galveston (GLS) 88 81 89 81 90 / 50 30 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk until 5 AM CDT early this morning for the
following zones: Brazoria Islands...Galveston Island and
Bolivar Peninsula...Matagorda Islands.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 4 AM CDT early this
morning for the following zones: Coastal waters from
Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal
waters from High Island to Freeport TX out 20
NM...Matagorda Bay.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION through this afternoon for
the following zones: Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship
Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to
Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...31
SHORT TERM...47
LONG TERM...31
AVIATION...47
MARINE...31
Geesh! Getting dumped on in Beaumont! This lightning is intense! Road is flooded and lights flickering. Wasn’t expecting this for this early and this intense!
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Firing up in Lake Jackson again.
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4488
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
00
FXUS64 KHGX 251448
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
Issued by National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
948 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2019
.UPDATE...
Morning convective actiivty has for the most part moved to
the coastal waters and off to the east. Just some lingering light
to moderate rain at this time eleswhere. Made some minor
adjustments to the grids based on current radar trends.
FXUS64 KHGX 251448
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
Issued by National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
948 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2019
.UPDATE...
Morning convective actiivty has for the most part moved to
the coastal waters and off to the east. Just some lingering light
to moderate rain at this time eleswhere. Made some minor
adjustments to the grids based on current radar trends.
Pouring very hard at the coast.
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4488
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
000
FXUS64 KHGX 251748
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1248 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2019
.DISCUSSION...
18Z AVIATION...Have a line of thunderstorms near the coast and
offshore. Expect some of this activity to gradually move inland
and weaken. We could see additional thunderstorms develop with
daytime heating, so even northern taf sites could see a few
thunderstorms later this afternoon. Should see considerable less
convective activity tomorrow, but isolated showers and
thunderstorms are expected with daytime heating. 33
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED Issued by National Weather Service Lake Charles LA/
UPDATE...
Morning convective activity has for the most part moved to
the coastal waters and off to the east. Just some lingering light
to moderate rain at this time elsewhere. Made some minor
adjustments to the grids based on current radar trends.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 75 92 73 93 73 / 30 20 10 10 10
Houston (IAH) 76 92 75 95 75 / 30 20 10 20 20
Galveston (GLS) 81 89 81 90 80 / 30 10 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 4 PM CDT this
afternoon for the following zones: Waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from
High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.
&&
$$
FXUS64 KHGX 251748
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1248 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2019
.DISCUSSION...
18Z AVIATION...Have a line of thunderstorms near the coast and
offshore. Expect some of this activity to gradually move inland
and weaken. We could see additional thunderstorms develop with
daytime heating, so even northern taf sites could see a few
thunderstorms later this afternoon. Should see considerable less
convective activity tomorrow, but isolated showers and
thunderstorms are expected with daytime heating. 33
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED Issued by National Weather Service Lake Charles LA/
UPDATE...
Morning convective activity has for the most part moved to
the coastal waters and off to the east. Just some lingering light
to moderate rain at this time elsewhere. Made some minor
adjustments to the grids based on current radar trends.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 75 92 73 93 73 / 30 20 10 10 10
Houston (IAH) 76 92 75 95 75 / 30 20 10 20 20
Galveston (GLS) 81 89 81 90 80 / 30 10 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 4 PM CDT this
afternoon for the following zones: Waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from
High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.
&&
$$
Beaumont dumped on again... round 2 today.
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
-
srainhoutx
- Site Admin
- Posts: 19616
- Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
- Contact:
It's been a wet 48 hours across our Region...
Code: Select all
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
457 PM CDT TUE JUN 25 2019
...48 HOUR PRECIPITATION REPORTS...
LOCATION AMOUNT TIME/DATE
...TEXAS...
...AUSTIN COUNTY...
EAGLE LAKE 7 NE 1.53 IN 0400 PM 06/25
BELLVILLE 1 SW 0.72 IN 0400 PM 06/25
...BRAZORIA COUNTY...
LAKE JACKSON 3.91 IN 0450 PM 06/25
ALVIN 1.84 IN 0449 PM 06/25
WEST COLUMBIA 0.29 IN 0450 PM 06/25
...BRAZOS COUNTY...
BRYAN 0.53 IN 0445 PM 06/25
...CHAMBERS COUNTY...
LAKE CHARLOTTE 3.62 IN 0400 PM 06/25
ANAHUAC 2.51 IN 0412 PM 06/25
BAYTOWN 1.43 IN 0409 PM 06/25
...COLORADO COUNTY...
CUMMINS CREEK NEAR FRELSBURG 0.92 IN 0400 PM 06/25
7 W EAGLE LAKE 0.64 IN 0454 PM 06/25
WEIMAR 0.11 IN 0446 PM 06/25
...FORT BEND COUNTY...
MISSOURI CITY 2.55 IN 0441 PM 06/25
3 NW RICHMOND 2.22 IN 0455 PM 06/25
RICHMOND 1.64 IN 0431 PM 06/25
STAFFORD 1.38 IN 0442 PM 06/25
ROSENBERG 1.28 IN 0450 PM 06/25
KATY 1.20 IN 0446 PM 06/25
SUGAR LAND 1.20 IN 0447 PM 06/25
RICHMOND 1.13 IN 0450 PM 06/25
...GALVESTON COUNTY...
LA MARQUE 2.35 IN 0446 PM 06/25
1 SSE TEXAS CITY 2.19 IN 0450 PM 06/25
SANTA FE 2.08 IN 0450 PM 06/25
LEAGUE CITY 1.91 IN 0445 PM 06/25
LEAGUE CITY 1.57 IN 0445 PM 06/25
FRIENDSWOOD 1.19 IN 0454 PM 06/25
...HARRIS COUNTY...
TOMBALL 3.86 IN 0448 PM 06/25
D100 420 BRAYS BAYOU @ SOUTH 3.72 IN 0409 PM 06/25
DEER PARK 3.50 IN 0455 PM 06/25
HOUSTON 3.26 IN 0450 PM 06/25
HOUSTON 3.25 IN 0449 PM 06/25
L100 1210 LITTLE CYPRESS CRE 3.24 IN 0331 PM 06/25
1 E WEST UNIVERSITY PLACE 3.10 IN 0939 AM 06/25
CYPRESS 3.00 IN 0448 PM 06/25
HOUSTON 3.00 IN 0448 PM 06/25
K100 1175 CYPRESS CREEK @ US 2.92 IN 0327 PM 06/25
CYPRESS 2.91 IN 0447 PM 06/25
BAYTOWN 2.90 IN 0455 PM 06/25
2 NNW PASADENA 2.89 IN 0450 PM 06/25
4 W SPRING 2.80 IN 0454 PM 06/25
K100 1160 CYPRESS CREEK @ GR 2.76 IN 0323 PM 06/25
PASADENA 2.76 IN 0449 PM 06/25
W100 2220 BUFFALO BAYOU @ MI 2.68 IN 0404 PM 06/25
SOUTHSIDE PLACE 2.52 IN 0450 PM 06/25
2 SE HUNTERS CREEK VILLAGE 2.51 IN 0450 PM 06/25
1 SE HUNTERS CREEK VILLAGE 2.37 IN 0455 PM 06/25
6 WSW SPRING 2.31 IN 0455 PM 06/25
1 ESE HOUSTON 2.23 IN 0454 PM 06/25
P100 1670 GREENS BAYOU @ CUT 2.16 IN 0350 PM 06/25
P138 1695 @ ALDINE WESTFIELD 2.16 IN 0112 PM 06/25
2 NE SOUTH HOUSTON 2.09 IN 0455 PM 06/25
2 NNE SOUTH HOUSTON 2.01 IN 0455 PM 06/25
U106 2130 HORSEPEN CREEK @ T 2.00 IN 0222 PM 06/25
E100 550 WHITE OAK BAYOU @ L 1.97 IN 0348 PM 06/25
2 WNW SPRING 1.95 IN 0450 PM 06/25
SPRING 1.94 IN 0448 PM 06/25
2 NE PEARLAND 1.90 IN 0455 PM 06/25
HOUSTON 1.87 IN 0431 PM 06/25
HOUSTON 1.82 IN 0445 PM 06/25
HOUSTON 1.81 IN 0448 PM 06/25
SPRING 1.74 IN 0445 PM 06/25
4 NNW HOUSTON 1.74 IN 0455 PM 06/25
P100 1665 GREENS BAYOU @ BAM 1.72 IN 0243 PM 06/25
HOUSTON 1.71 IN 0443 PM 06/25
2 ESE HOUSTON 1.69 IN 0455 PM 06/25
HOUSTON 1.67 IN 0445 PM 06/25
U101 2190 SOUTH MAYDE CREEK 1.64 IN 0337 PM 06/25
W156 2280 RUMMEL CREEK @ BRI 1.60 IN 0222 PM 06/25
4 ESE HOUSTON 1.57 IN 0450 PM 06/25
W100 2210 BUFFALO BAYOU @ TU 1.52 IN 0349 PM 06/25
EL LAGO 1.46 IN 0446 PM 06/25
WEBSTER 1.44 IN 0445 PM 06/25
HUMBLE 1.41 IN 0440 PM 06/25
FRIENDSWOOD 1.40 IN 0445 PM 06/25
U100 2140 LANGHAM CREEK @ LO 1.40 IN 0306 PM 06/25
3 W BUNKER HILL VILLAGE 1.39 IN 0450 PM 06/25
KATY 1.34 IN 0446 PM 06/25
2 NE MEADOWS 1.31 IN 0455 PM 06/25
HOUSTON 1.26 IN 0445 PM 06/25
3 SW GALENA PARK 1.25 IN 0450 PM 06/25
CLOVERLEAF 1.7 W 1.25 IN 0600 AM 06/25
4 S ALDINE 1.22 IN 0455 PM 06/25
WEBSTER 1.19 IN 0450 PM 06/25
P100 1600 GREENS BAYOU @ MOU 1.00 IN 0437 PM 06/25
CROSBY 0.99 IN 0447 PM 06/25
HOUSTON 0.98 IN 0446 PM 06/25
HOUSTON 0.94 IN 0445 PM 06/25
T101 2020 MASON CREEK @ PRIN 0.88 IN 0157 PM 06/25
HOUSTON 0.86 IN 0446 PM 06/25
...JACKSON COUNTY...
FRANCITAS 1.09 IN 0447 PM 06/25
LOLITA 0.95 IN 0449 PM 06/25
PALACIOS 0.62 IN 0449 PM 06/25
GANADO 0.38 IN 0447 PM 06/25
...LIBERTY COUNTY...
Q100 1740 CEDAR BAYOU @ US 9 3.04 IN 0357 PM 06/25
DAYTON 2.18 IN 0422 PM 06/25
1 NNW LIBERTY 1.92 IN 0454 PM 06/25
...MADISON COUNTY...
MADISONVILLE 0.67 IN 0450 PM 06/25
...MATAGORDA COUNTY...
SARGENT 1 ENE 3.34 IN 0400 PM 06/25
MARKHAM 2.62 IN 0446 PM 06/25
...MONTGOMERY COUNTY...
CONROE 3.03 IN 0444 PM 06/25
WILLIS 2.23 IN 0449 PM 06/25
SPRING 1.80 IN 0446 PM 06/25
PEACH CREEK 1.76 IN 1025 AM 06/25
MONTGOMERY 1.06 IN 0436 PM 06/25
WILLIS 0.87 IN 0445 PM 06/25
...TRINITY COUNTY...
TRINITY 5.1 NW 2.88 IN 0700 AM 06/25
...WALLER COUNTY...
KATY 1.76 IN 0448 PM 06/25
BROOKSHIRE 1.04 IN 0417 PM 06/25
...WHARTON COUNTY...
COLORADO RIVER NR GLEN FLORA 0.66 IN 0400 PM 06/25
EL CAMPO 2 NW 0.41 IN 0400 PM 06/25
OBSERVATIONS ARE COLLECTED FROM A VARIETY OF SOURCES WITH VARYING
EQUIPMENT AND EXPOSURES. WE THANK ALL VOLUNTEER WEATHER OBSERVERS
FOR THEIR DEDICATION. NOT ALL DATA LISTED ARE CONSIDERED OFFICIAL.
$$Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
1-3” over the next 10 days according to the overnight Euro.
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4488
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
000
FXUS64 KHGX 260935
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
435 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2019
.DISCUSSION...
Summary
- Another day of scattered convection as early day near coastal or
marine showers come ashore and likely evolve into afternoon
scattered inland thunderstorms. Slow movers could quickly put
down an 1 to 2+ inches that could lead to nuisance low lying
area and road flooding.
- The late work week will dry out and become more hot. Due to
relatively lower atmospheric moisture, afternoon heat indices
will not become too much of an issue.
- Late June into early July transitions back to wet with higher
rain chances each subsequent day leading up to the 4th of July.
While just out of this forecast package`s extended period, the
4th of July (next Thursday) is looking like a much drier day
than Tue/Wed as upper ridging asserts more of influence over
region during the actual holiday.
.NEAR TERM [Today]...
A height weakness channel between two upper ridges positioned on
either side of eastern Texas today will set the stage for a
continued unsettled weather pattern. Moisture-rich near 2.0 inch
pwat air in line with relatively lower convective temperatures
will allow any southwestern-based early day showers to blossom as
they work their way inland within southerly steering flow. Light
precipitation is trying to blossom over the Matagorda Bay region
and this activity is forecast to fester further inland...introducing
return showers and thunderstorms to the coastal counties through
the morning hours. Mild 25H diffluence around the northeastern
periphery of a near Baja-centered jet level anticyclonic flow
will increase western forecast area afternoon convective chances.
Generally, scattered interior TS SHRA activity will produce
anywhere from a few hundredths of an inch to locally over 2 inches
where the strongest cells are slow to weaken and move out. Early
morning overcast may break up but expect a mostly overcast
afternoon...weak southeasterly breezes and periods of rain that
will keep many from exceeding the 90 F mark. The silver lining is
that heat indices will not be an issue today.
.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Friday]...
Ridging at all levels will take hold during this period and turn
the precipitation tap off. Other than some isolated heat-of-the-
day showers or a rouge storm forming in the vicinity of the sea
and/or bay breeze meso-boundaries, POPs will remain at or under
slight probs both Thursday and Friday. Higher probabilities for
inland, mainly western county overnight low overcast and patchy
fog development over more open expanses and bodies of water. The
upper ridge stationed over west Texas will own these two days
making these days the hottest days of this 7 day period. The only
saving grace will be that overall column moisture will be on the
downtick. Thus, mostly to partially sunny days will warm into the
lower to middle 90s with afternoon humidities falling into the
50%-tile and peak heat indices ranging between 96 and 101 F.
.LONG TERM [Friday Night Through Wednesday]...
This will be the most active period of this forecast. Late June
will end on a somewhat wet note with early July starting off even
wetter. As western ridging backs off to the northwest and anchors
itself over New Mexico, an inverted trough will begin to develop
across the western Gulf going into the weekend. Much higher pwat
air in the 1.8 to 2.1 inch realm will advect up from the southern
Gulf and, with an increasingly unstable regional air mass, periods
of early day near coastal showers transitioning to interior
clustering thunderstorms will occur over subsequent days from
Saturday through Wednesday. The main storm threat will be slow
moving storms producing high rainfall rates that will likely lead
to some regional flooding issues by Tuesday or Wednesday. Due to
the consistent run-to-run nature of the extended model solutions
signaling a lingering coastal trough/height weakness channel,
confidence is growing that the end of the period, or the days
leading up to the 4th of July, will become very wet. Overcast and
periodic rain will keep afternoon warmth in the 80s (60s within
afternoon rain) with warm and humid early mornings in the average
middle 70s.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR conditions across the region early this morning. May see some
intermittent MVFR cigs develop into the mid morning hours. Look
for sct shra/tsra to develop with some daytime heating and will
likely leave the vcsh/vcts wording about the same in the 12z set
of TAFs. Precip should taper off with the loss of heating this
evening.
&&
.MARINE...
Moderate onshore winds are currently withing caution criteria so
will hoist those flags in the Gulf waters through mid morning.
Winds will gradually diminish the next couple days as surface
high pressure builds in from the east and the pressure gradient
relaxes. A surface trough will makes its way east to west across
the waters this weekend. Expect winds to back to the northeast in
advance along with increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms
as this occurs. As the trough passes, southeast winds will resume
as we head into early next week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 88 72 91 71 93 / 40 10 10 10 10
Houston (IAH) 89 75 92 73 94 / 40 10 20 10 20
Galveston (GLS) 87 81 90 80 91 / 40 10 10 10 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 10 AM CDT this morning
for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from
High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport
to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from
High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.
&&
$$
NEAR/SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM...31
AVIATION...47
MARINE...47
FXUS64 KHGX 260935
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
435 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2019
.DISCUSSION...
Summary
- Another day of scattered convection as early day near coastal or
marine showers come ashore and likely evolve into afternoon
scattered inland thunderstorms. Slow movers could quickly put
down an 1 to 2+ inches that could lead to nuisance low lying
area and road flooding.
- The late work week will dry out and become more hot. Due to
relatively lower atmospheric moisture, afternoon heat indices
will not become too much of an issue.
- Late June into early July transitions back to wet with higher
rain chances each subsequent day leading up to the 4th of July.
While just out of this forecast package`s extended period, the
4th of July (next Thursday) is looking like a much drier day
than Tue/Wed as upper ridging asserts more of influence over
region during the actual holiday.
.NEAR TERM [Today]...
A height weakness channel between two upper ridges positioned on
either side of eastern Texas today will set the stage for a
continued unsettled weather pattern. Moisture-rich near 2.0 inch
pwat air in line with relatively lower convective temperatures
will allow any southwestern-based early day showers to blossom as
they work their way inland within southerly steering flow. Light
precipitation is trying to blossom over the Matagorda Bay region
and this activity is forecast to fester further inland...introducing
return showers and thunderstorms to the coastal counties through
the morning hours. Mild 25H diffluence around the northeastern
periphery of a near Baja-centered jet level anticyclonic flow
will increase western forecast area afternoon convective chances.
Generally, scattered interior TS SHRA activity will produce
anywhere from a few hundredths of an inch to locally over 2 inches
where the strongest cells are slow to weaken and move out. Early
morning overcast may break up but expect a mostly overcast
afternoon...weak southeasterly breezes and periods of rain that
will keep many from exceeding the 90 F mark. The silver lining is
that heat indices will not be an issue today.
.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Friday]...
Ridging at all levels will take hold during this period and turn
the precipitation tap off. Other than some isolated heat-of-the-
day showers or a rouge storm forming in the vicinity of the sea
and/or bay breeze meso-boundaries, POPs will remain at or under
slight probs both Thursday and Friday. Higher probabilities for
inland, mainly western county overnight low overcast and patchy
fog development over more open expanses and bodies of water. The
upper ridge stationed over west Texas will own these two days
making these days the hottest days of this 7 day period. The only
saving grace will be that overall column moisture will be on the
downtick. Thus, mostly to partially sunny days will warm into the
lower to middle 90s with afternoon humidities falling into the
50%-tile and peak heat indices ranging between 96 and 101 F.
.LONG TERM [Friday Night Through Wednesday]...
This will be the most active period of this forecast. Late June
will end on a somewhat wet note with early July starting off even
wetter. As western ridging backs off to the northwest and anchors
itself over New Mexico, an inverted trough will begin to develop
across the western Gulf going into the weekend. Much higher pwat
air in the 1.8 to 2.1 inch realm will advect up from the southern
Gulf and, with an increasingly unstable regional air mass, periods
of early day near coastal showers transitioning to interior
clustering thunderstorms will occur over subsequent days from
Saturday through Wednesday. The main storm threat will be slow
moving storms producing high rainfall rates that will likely lead
to some regional flooding issues by Tuesday or Wednesday. Due to
the consistent run-to-run nature of the extended model solutions
signaling a lingering coastal trough/height weakness channel,
confidence is growing that the end of the period, or the days
leading up to the 4th of July, will become very wet. Overcast and
periodic rain will keep afternoon warmth in the 80s (60s within
afternoon rain) with warm and humid early mornings in the average
middle 70s.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR conditions across the region early this morning. May see some
intermittent MVFR cigs develop into the mid morning hours. Look
for sct shra/tsra to develop with some daytime heating and will
likely leave the vcsh/vcts wording about the same in the 12z set
of TAFs. Precip should taper off with the loss of heating this
evening.
&&
.MARINE...
Moderate onshore winds are currently withing caution criteria so
will hoist those flags in the Gulf waters through mid morning.
Winds will gradually diminish the next couple days as surface
high pressure builds in from the east and the pressure gradient
relaxes. A surface trough will makes its way east to west across
the waters this weekend. Expect winds to back to the northeast in
advance along with increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms
as this occurs. As the trough passes, southeast winds will resume
as we head into early next week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 88 72 91 71 93 / 40 10 10 10 10
Houston (IAH) 89 75 92 73 94 / 40 10 20 10 20
Galveston (GLS) 87 81 90 80 91 / 40 10 10 10 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 10 AM CDT this morning
for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from
High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport
to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from
High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.
&&
$$
NEAR/SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM...31
AVIATION...47
MARINE...47
wicked looking storms popping up on the NW side
http://map.blitzortung.org/#7.87/29.95/-95.204
https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/lite/N0R/HGX_loop.gif
http://map.blitzortung.org/#7.87/29.95/-95.204
https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/lite/N0R/HGX_loop.gif
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
128 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2019
TXZ199-212-213-261915-
Waller TX-Inland Harris TX-Montgomery TX-
128 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2019
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY...EASTERN
WALLER AND NORTHWESTERN HARRIS COUNTIES UNTIL 215 PM CDT...
At 128 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Jersey Village, moving north at 25 mph.
Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.
Locations impacted include...
Tomball, Jersey Village, Pinehurst, Spring Branch North, The
Woodlands, Spring Branch West, Addicks Park Ten, Greater Greenspoint,
northwestern Northside / Northline, Magnolia, Stagecoach, Spring
Branch Central, Central Northwest, Langwood, Fairbanks / Northwest
Crossing, Willowbrook, Hidden Valley, Acres Home, Independence
Heights and Hooks Airport.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.