June 2019: Showers/Storms Increasing To End June

[Texashawk]

Not our area, but there is currently a very dangerous situation developing near Harlingen. Some areas west of the city have gotten over 11” in just a few hours. Flash flood emergency has been declared....

Flash Flood Warning

10:49 PM CDT, 6/24,expires 12:00 AM CDT, 6/25

... Flash flood emergency for extreme eastern Hidalgo, western Willacy and extreme northwestern Cameron counties...

The National Weather Service in Brownsville has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for... east central Hidalgo County in deep south Texas... northwestern Cameron County in deep south Texas... western Willacy County in deep south Texas...

* until 145 am CDT.

* At 1044 PM CDT, Hidalgo County emergency management reported 3 to 4 feet of water depth in the Monte Alto area and numerous deep water rescues ongoing. This is a flash flood emergency for the Monte Alto, Lasara, Sebastian, Santa Rosa and Lyford areas. This is a particularly dangerous situation. Seek higher ground now!

* Some locations that will experience flooding include... Raymondville, Elsa, Edcouch, Santa Rosa, Lyford, La Villa, Lasara and Sebastian.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Move to higher ground now. This is an extremely dangerous and life-threatening situation. Do not attempt to travel unless you are fleeing an area subject to flooding or under an evacuation order.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the dangers of flooding.


Lat... Lon 2658 9774 2633 9771 2615 9776 2621 9803 2660 9795


Speece

[Katdaddy]

Another day of scattered showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy rain being the main threat. The SPC has a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms across all of SE TX today. The radar this morning shows scattered showers and thunderstorms along the Upper TX Coast from Houston SW to Matagorda County which will effecting the morning commute again.

[Cromagnum]

Pretty feisty to the southwest. Tons of lightning near Pearland and Manvel right now.

[Texaspirate11]

woke up to thunder and lightning down here by the bay

[unome]

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
647 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2019

TXZ338-251215-
Coastal Galveston TX-
647 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL GALVESTON COUNTY
UNTIL 715 AM CDT...

At 647 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Texas City, moving northeast at 40 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Texas City, La Marque and San Leon.

[unome]

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
649 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2019

TXZ237-337-251215-
Inland Brazoria TX-Coastal Brazoria TX-
649 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL BRAZORIA COUNTY UNTIL 715
AM CDT...

At 649 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Bailey's Prairie, or over Angleton, moving northeast at 10 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Northern Lake Jackson, Angleton and Bailey's Prairie.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

[unome]

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
651 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2019

TXZ214-251230-
Chambers TX-
651 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN CHAMBERS COUNTY UNTIL 730
AM CDT...

At 651 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles southeast of Anahuac, or 16 miles east of Beach City, moving
northeast at 40 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Winnie and Stowell.

[srainhoutx]

Locations on the Eastside along the East Belt/Carpenters Bayou have seen near 3 inches fall the past couple of hours

[unome]

east coast of Mexico is getting deluged https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/s ... &sector=gm

wv today.jpg

[srainhoutx]

east coast of Mexico is getting deluged https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/s ... &sector=gm

wv today.jpg

You can see the moisture channel all the back down to EPAC Invest 93E

[unome]

east coast of Mexico is getting deluged https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/s ... &sector=gm

You can see the moisture channel all the back down to EPAC Invest 93E

I see 93E isn't modeled to head toward our direction, but what about the east coast storms down there ? Is this headed toward TX?

[srainhoutx]

east coast of Mexico is getting deluged https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/s ... &sector=gm

You can see the moisture channel all the back down to EPAC Invest 93E

I see 93E isn't modeled to head toward our direction, but what about the east coast storms down there ? Is this headed toward TX?

Not likely, but a general unsettled pattern does look to be developing for the Eastern Pacific, Mexico and Texas. A robust Kelvin Wave is likely assisting EPAC Invest 93E in its organization process and the CCKW likely will spin up additional tropical cyclones the next couple of weeks. Nocturnal thunderstorm complexes seem likely over Mexico into the weekend and may increase as a surge of deep tropical moisture arrives over the Yucatan this weekend and spreads N and W around the Western flank of a sub tropical Ridge located to our East. This weekend we likely will see an inverted trough move out of Louisiana into the Eastern half of Texas increasing daily rain chances once again. The 4th of July Holiday period could be rather unsettled and we will have that discussion in the July Topic as the week progresses. I do believe our boring weather pattern has ended for the time being.

[unome]

You can see the moisture channel all the back down to EPAC Invest 93E

I see 93E isn't modeled to head toward our direction, but what about the east coast storms down there ? Is this headed toward TX?

Not likely, but a general unsettled pattern does look to be developing for the Eastern Pacific, Mexico and Texas. A robust Kelvin Wave is likely assisting EPAC Invest 93E in its organization process and the CCKW likely will spin up additional tropical cyclones the next couple of weeks. Nocturnal thunderstorm complexes seem likely over Mexico into the weekend and may increase as a surge of deep tropical moisture arrives over the Yucatan this weekend and spreads N and W around the Western flank of a sub tropical Ridge located to our East. This weekend we likely will see an inverted trough move out of Louisiana into the Eastern half of Texas increasing daily rain chances once again. The 4th of July Holiday period could be rather unsettled and we will have that discussion in the July Topic as the week progresses. I do believe our boring weather pattern has ended for the time being.

a wealth of information, as always - really appreciate yor insight srain

[Cromagnum]

So does this mornings storms mean we are in clear for this evening?

[tireman4]

Houston Trans Star Weather Update

[srainhoutx]

So does this mornings storms mean we are in clear for this evening?

The short fuse meso models such as the HRRR and the NAM do suggest storms develop back down around Matagorda Bay/Victoria later this morning/early afternoon and progress NE into our Region. We need to get a shortwave located near S Central Texas to pass before we settled down for a couple of days.

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 250929
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
429 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2019

.DISCUSSION...

Summary

- A weak trough passage today, with its associated energy in
tandem with a passing jet streak, will spark off scattered and
randomly placed pockets of showers and thunderstorms through the
daytime hours. Main threat would be locally high rainfall
leading to nuisance flooding due to slow storm movement.

- Overall mid to late week pattern will be one of less
precipitation as ridging builds in at all levels. Partially
cloudy days with near normal daily temperatures and weaker
onshore breezes. Slightly drier air will regulate maximum heat
indices to the upper 90s, maybe topping out at 100 F in some
spots.

- A developing inverted trough this weekend will increase overall
precipitation coverage going into early July.


.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Wednesday]...

Enhanced lift on the east side of shortwave axis extending from cntl-
s TX will be making its way into the region today. Complex of precip
moving off the lower Tx coast looks to have temporarily disrupted
llvl wind flow along the upper Tx coast to more of a ne direction.
But once it returns to more of an onshore direction, deeper Gulf
moisture should make its way back into se TX with PW`s climbing into
the 2-2.3" range. Low convective temps, fcst CAPEs 3-4k, LI`s -5-
10, and depending on model of choice possibly a favorable position
of the jet streak should aid in sct to numerous showers/tstms today.
Look for increasing coverage near the coast this morning...expanding
inland throughout the day. Can`t rule out a few embedded pulse
strong/svr cells. Also wouldn`t be surprised to see some localized
areas that see a quick 1-3" downpour.

Precip should gradually taper off this evening with the loss of
heating. Iso/sct activity can be expected on Wed with lingering 1.8-
2.1" PW`s and seabreeze/daytime heating but overall coverage should
not be as much as we`ll probably see today considering forcing &
instability shouldn`t be as favorable. 47

&&


.LONG TERM [Wednesday Night Through Tuesday]...

Upper ridging begins to develop over the CONUS southern latitudes
and aids in suppressing any significant late work week convection.
Lower clouds and more widespread (rural) fog development during
the overnight Thursday and Friday morning hours focused primarily
west of the Interstate 45 corridor. Overall column moisture will
drop to around 1.5 inch pwats as southeasterly mid-layer flow
advects in periods of slightly higher moisture. This will translate
to partially cloudy days with relatively lower daytime humidity.
While onshore winds will generally be light and ambient
temperatures will climb into the lower 90s by noon, cloud cover
and dew points mixing out into the afternoon middle to upper 60s
will equate to maximum heat indices in the middle to upper 90s.
Pop up showers and maybe an isolated thunderstorm may form within
an uncapped and unstable afternoon air mass, focused along or just
behind the inland advancing local mesoscale sea and bay breezes.

A height weakness channel forms over eastern Texas this coming
weekend that will increase weekend POPs up into slight to low end
chance range. Models are all over the place with QPF placement
but all signal to a higher frequency of return precipitation.
Confidence lays in the area picking up more rain if timing of
higher lobes of moisture-rich air moving in from the Gulf come
across during the afternoon (or not). In summer-like fashion,
there will be little day-to-day difference in the diurnal
temperature curve with near to slightly above normal morning
minimum and afternoon maximum T values. 31

&&

.MARINE...

The passage of a weak trough and associated disturbances will
increase areal daytime maritime shower and thunderstorm coverage
today. Caution flags have been hoisted for the 20-60 nm offshore
waters through the afternoon as southeast winds have been running
around 15 to 20 knots. This recent persistent onshore fetch will
weaken through the remainder of the work week as eastern surface
high pressure expands into the northwestern Gulf. Significant wave
heights will fall to an average 1 to 2 feet by Friday afternoon
and remain that way through Monday. Rain chances will increase
over the weekend as western Gulf upper ridging weakens to general
troughiness and allows more southern Gulf disturbances to travel
northward into our local waters. 31

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 89 75 92 73 93 / 50 30 20 10 10
Houston (IAH) 89 76 92 75 95 / 50 30 20 10 20
Galveston (GLS) 88 81 89 81 90 / 50 30 10 10 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...High Rip Current Risk until 5 AM CDT early this morning for the
following zones: Brazoria Islands...Galveston Island and
Bolivar Peninsula...Matagorda Islands.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 4 AM CDT early this
morning for the following zones: Coastal waters from
Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal
waters from High Island to Freeport TX out 20
NM...Matagorda Bay.

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION through this afternoon for
the following zones: Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship
Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to
Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

DISCUSSION...31
SHORT TERM...47
LONG TERM...31
AVIATION...47
MARINE...31

[tireman4]

Rainfall This Morning

[djmike]

Geesh! Getting dumped on in Beaumont! This lightning is intense! Road is flooded and lights flickering. Wasn’t expecting this for this early and this intense!

[Cromagnum]

Firing up in Lake Jackson again.