June 2019: Showers/Storms Increasing To End June
The outflow hadn't quite made it to my house when the storms to the South erupted on top of me. Probably gonna get a lot of rain as north and south duke it out
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Katdaddy
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- Location: League City, Tx
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Strong thunderstorms have pushed offshore associated with the outflow boundary. A second area of showers and thunderstorms is pushing toward the Houston-Galveston areas currently as it slowly weakens. The Flash Flood Watch expires at 7AM for counties SW of the Houston-Galveston areas. A few more showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon.
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tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4488
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
000
FXUS64 KHGX 171123
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
623 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2019
.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...
Mesoscale features continue to dominate SE Texas, but fortunately
the impact should be lesser as the strongest storms in the area
have moved well offshore. Have conservatively held onto rain
chances through most of the day in the southern half as there
remain hints that rain showers may be more long-lived. We`ll also
have to determine the influence of a new cluster of storms over
the Hill Country.
Amendments and potentially drastic changes to the forecast may be
unavoidable as small scale features are notoriously difficult to
forecast, even at short ranges.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 400 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2019/...
.SHORT TERM [TODAY Through TUESDAY AFTERNOON]...
Storms focusing along the outflow boundary now stretching from
near Bouy 42035 to Matagorda Bay. Strong damaging winds possible
around the Matagorda Bay area and coastal counties adjacent.
Rainfall although intense is moving quickly with the storms and
should lessen the flooding threat. Previously have narrowed the
Flash Flood Watch to the southwestern counties and Severe
Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect til 5 for the southwestern
most counties.
As the cluster of storms moves through expect lighter rainfall
north of the cluster to sweep through with a fairly dry layer to
fall through over the central counties where the rain cooled dome
of air resides.
By 8 or 9 am expect the storms to be mainly offshore or right
near the immediate coast. Much cooler weather on tap through early
afternoon or until the thick mid and upper level cloudiness moves
through with the coastal waters storms moving well out into the
Gulf. Will of course play havoc with the winds this morning but by
mid to late afternoon expect southerly flow to resume and to start
pulling back in somewhat worked over air. Scattered shower and
isolated thunderstorms possible over the area this afternoon.
Tonight expecting a quiet night with an increase again in lower
level cloudiness late and probably over the northeastern areas.
Much warmer too compared to the relatively "chilly" temperatures
this morning in the mid 60s up north and down into even Brazoria
county...thanks meso-high. Although not back up into the very warm
range still expect overnight lows tonight/early Tuesday in the mid
70s to near 80. Tuesday should be in the lower 90s to around 90
for high temperatures and weak upper ridging trying to build back
into the area with a weak short wave passing by to the north...may
be enough for scattered mainly daytime showers and thunderstorms
along the seabreeze and over the eastern portions of the area.
45
.LONG TERM [TUESDAY NIGHT Through Monday]...
South winds will persist through the period as surface high pressure
remains centered in/around the eastern Gulf of Mexico and southern
Florida Peninsula area. Will continue to carry low shower and thun-
derstorm chances on Tuesday followed by drier/hotter weather for the
remainder of the week as much of the area resides on the northern
fringes of weak upper level ridging. Warming temperatures still look
like a good bet with mid to upper 90s expected for afternoon highs
beginning on Wednesday and continuing into Friday. Low temperatures
in this time period still look like they might struggle to fall under
80 degrees at some spots, especially along the coast. We will need to
keep a close eye on heat index values that have the potential to peak
at a 106 to 109 degree range for several days which could lead to an
increase in heat related illnesses. Over the weekend, a developing
southwest flow aloft should allow for a return of mainly daytime
showers and thunderstorms, and this activity should help to shave a
couple degrees off the afternoon high temperatures. 42
.MARINE...
Messy is an understatement. SCA flags up for parts of the area
with the storms moving through and locally strong gusty winds in
excess of 30 knots. Seas of 4-8 feet should be dominant conditions
through mid morning then subsiding. Winds directions is going to
be all over the compass as the storms move through and then with
any meso-highs. Eventually it settles down with southerly flow
resuming late this afternoon and tonight. Tide level may briefly
spike up with storms this morning then should subside. Will
continue the Beach Hazard/Rip current statements through mid
morning. Moderate southerly flow returns late Wednesday into
Thursday and continues into the weekend. Tropics look quiet.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 86 73 90 76 95 / 60 10 20 10 10
Houston (IAH) 86 75 91 78 95 / 50 10 30 10 10
Galveston (GLS) 85 80 87 82 90 / 60 20 30 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk until 9 AM CDT this morning for the
following zones: Brazoria Islands...Galveston Island and
Bolivar Peninsula...Matagorda Islands.
Flash Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for the following
zones: Austin...Brazoria Islands...Coastal
Brazoria...Coastal Jackson...Coastal
Matagorda...Colorado...Fort Bend...Inland Brazoria...Inland
Jackson...Inland Matagorda...Matagorda Islands...Wharton.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for the
following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda
Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island
to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Matagorda Bay.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 10 AM CDT this morning
for the following zones: Galveston Bay.
Small Craft Advisory until noon CDT today for the following
zones: Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX
from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX
from 20 to 60 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...45
LONG TERM...42
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...45
FXUS64 KHGX 171123
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
623 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2019
.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...
Mesoscale features continue to dominate SE Texas, but fortunately
the impact should be lesser as the strongest storms in the area
have moved well offshore. Have conservatively held onto rain
chances through most of the day in the southern half as there
remain hints that rain showers may be more long-lived. We`ll also
have to determine the influence of a new cluster of storms over
the Hill Country.
Amendments and potentially drastic changes to the forecast may be
unavoidable as small scale features are notoriously difficult to
forecast, even at short ranges.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 400 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2019/...
.SHORT TERM [TODAY Through TUESDAY AFTERNOON]...
Storms focusing along the outflow boundary now stretching from
near Bouy 42035 to Matagorda Bay. Strong damaging winds possible
around the Matagorda Bay area and coastal counties adjacent.
Rainfall although intense is moving quickly with the storms and
should lessen the flooding threat. Previously have narrowed the
Flash Flood Watch to the southwestern counties and Severe
Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect til 5 for the southwestern
most counties.
As the cluster of storms moves through expect lighter rainfall
north of the cluster to sweep through with a fairly dry layer to
fall through over the central counties where the rain cooled dome
of air resides.
By 8 or 9 am expect the storms to be mainly offshore or right
near the immediate coast. Much cooler weather on tap through early
afternoon or until the thick mid and upper level cloudiness moves
through with the coastal waters storms moving well out into the
Gulf. Will of course play havoc with the winds this morning but by
mid to late afternoon expect southerly flow to resume and to start
pulling back in somewhat worked over air. Scattered shower and
isolated thunderstorms possible over the area this afternoon.
Tonight expecting a quiet night with an increase again in lower
level cloudiness late and probably over the northeastern areas.
Much warmer too compared to the relatively "chilly" temperatures
this morning in the mid 60s up north and down into even Brazoria
county...thanks meso-high. Although not back up into the very warm
range still expect overnight lows tonight/early Tuesday in the mid
70s to near 80. Tuesday should be in the lower 90s to around 90
for high temperatures and weak upper ridging trying to build back
into the area with a weak short wave passing by to the north...may
be enough for scattered mainly daytime showers and thunderstorms
along the seabreeze and over the eastern portions of the area.
45
.LONG TERM [TUESDAY NIGHT Through Monday]...
South winds will persist through the period as surface high pressure
remains centered in/around the eastern Gulf of Mexico and southern
Florida Peninsula area. Will continue to carry low shower and thun-
derstorm chances on Tuesday followed by drier/hotter weather for the
remainder of the week as much of the area resides on the northern
fringes of weak upper level ridging. Warming temperatures still look
like a good bet with mid to upper 90s expected for afternoon highs
beginning on Wednesday and continuing into Friday. Low temperatures
in this time period still look like they might struggle to fall under
80 degrees at some spots, especially along the coast. We will need to
keep a close eye on heat index values that have the potential to peak
at a 106 to 109 degree range for several days which could lead to an
increase in heat related illnesses. Over the weekend, a developing
southwest flow aloft should allow for a return of mainly daytime
showers and thunderstorms, and this activity should help to shave a
couple degrees off the afternoon high temperatures. 42
.MARINE...
Messy is an understatement. SCA flags up for parts of the area
with the storms moving through and locally strong gusty winds in
excess of 30 knots. Seas of 4-8 feet should be dominant conditions
through mid morning then subsiding. Winds directions is going to
be all over the compass as the storms move through and then with
any meso-highs. Eventually it settles down with southerly flow
resuming late this afternoon and tonight. Tide level may briefly
spike up with storms this morning then should subside. Will
continue the Beach Hazard/Rip current statements through mid
morning. Moderate southerly flow returns late Wednesday into
Thursday and continues into the weekend. Tropics look quiet.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 86 73 90 76 95 / 60 10 20 10 10
Houston (IAH) 86 75 91 78 95 / 50 10 30 10 10
Galveston (GLS) 85 80 87 82 90 / 60 20 30 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk until 9 AM CDT this morning for the
following zones: Brazoria Islands...Galveston Island and
Bolivar Peninsula...Matagorda Islands.
Flash Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for the following
zones: Austin...Brazoria Islands...Coastal
Brazoria...Coastal Jackson...Coastal
Matagorda...Colorado...Fort Bend...Inland Brazoria...Inland
Jackson...Inland Matagorda...Matagorda Islands...Wharton.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for the
following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda
Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island
to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Matagorda Bay.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 10 AM CDT this morning
for the following zones: Galveston Bay.
Small Craft Advisory until noon CDT today for the following
zones: Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX
from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX
from 20 to 60 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...45
LONG TERM...42
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...45
-
MontgomeryCoWx
- Posts: 2356
- Joined: Wed Dec 14, 2011 4:31 pm
- Location: Weimar, TX
- Contact:
1.65 inches in Magnolia. I'll take it.
Team #NeverSummer
Code: Select all
Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
845 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2019
Here are some rainfall and peak wind gusts from across Southeast
Texas from yesterday's storms. Rainfall is listed first and wind gusts
follow.
Observations are collected from a variety of sources with varying
equipment and exposures. We thank all volunteer weather observers
for their dedication. Not all data listed are considered official.
...24 HOUR PRECIPITATION REPORTS...
Location Amount Time/Date
...Texas...
...Austin County...
Bellville 1 Sw 1.17 in 0700 AM 06/17
Bellville 0.4 NE 1.12 in 0600 AM 06/17
Bellville 6.5 NNE 0.98 in 0700 AM 06/17
Bellville 0.9 ENE 0.95 in 0700 AM 06/17
Industry 3 W 0.87 in 0700 AM 06/17
Eagle Lake 7ne 0.53 in 0700 AM 06/17
...Brazoria County...
Alvin 1.83 in 0804 AM 06/17
Pearland 7.4 W 0.90 in 0720 AM 06/17
A100 150 Clear Creek @ Count 0.88 in 0710 AM 06/17
A100 180 Clear Creek @ Mykaw 0.80 in 0731 AM 06/17
Lake Jackson 0.52 in 0805 AM 06/17
...Brazos County...
College Station 2.0 SSE 2.39 in 0600 AM 06/17
Bryan 3.5 NNW 1.99 in 0800 AM 06/17
Bryan 3.8 SSW 1.94 in 0600 AM 06/17
Bryan 7.1 N 1.84 in 0700 AM 06/17
College Station 6.4 ENE 1.69 in 0700 AM 06/17
Bryan 0.71 in 0802 AM 06/17
...Chambers County...
Lake Charlotte 1.91 in 0700 AM 06/17
Baytown 1.22 in 0804 AM 06/17
Anahuac 1.16 in 0712 AM 06/17
...Colorado County...
Weimar 7 S 2.17 in 0700 AM 06/17
Weimar 1.67 in 0801 AM 06/17
Cummins Creek near Frelsburg 0.69 in 0700 AM 06/17
7 W Eagle Lake 0.60 in 0804 AM 06/17
...Fort Bend County...
Richmond 4.4 NNE 2.93 in 0800 AM 06/17
Richmond 2.9 NE 2.91 in 0700 AM 06/17
Sugar Land 1.0 W 2.69 in 0700 AM 06/17
Sugar Land 2.58 in 0803 AM 06/17
Sugar Land .5 SE 2.57 in 0700 AM 06/17
Richmond 4.9 NNE 2.39 in 0600 AM 06/17
Missouri City 2.34 in 0801 AM 06/17
Katy 7.3 SSE 2.23 in 0700 AM 06/17
Katy 1.94 in 0804 AM 06/17
Katy 1.88 in 0800 AM 06/17
Missouri City 5.1 SSE 1.88 in 0600 AM 06/17
Richmond 1.79 in 0801 AM 06/17
Rosenberg 1.77 in 0801 AM 06/17
Katy 1.70 in 0800 AM 06/17
Richmond 1.65 in 0755 AM 06/17
Richmond 1.65 in 0800 AM 06/17
3 NW Richmond 1.40 in 0805 AM 06/17
Stafford 1.15 in 0803 AM 06/17
...Galveston County...
Galveston 6.4 NE 1.45 in 0700 AM 06/17
Friendswood 1.23 in 0804 AM 06/17
Galveston 5.6 NE 1.10 in 0645 AM 06/17
A100 135 Clear Creek @ Fm 23 1.08 in 0721 AM 06/17
Santa Fe 1.04 in 0805 AM 06/17
League City 0.89 in 0801 AM 06/17
Texas City 3.8 E 0.74 in 0700 AM 06/17
Dickinson 1.4 W 0.74 in 0730 AM 06/17
League City 0.67 in 0800 AM 06/17
Kemah 0.2 WNW 0.64 in 0700 AM 06/17
League City 3.6 ENE 0.60 in 0700 AM 06/17
La Marque 0.57 in 0800 AM 06/17
1 SSE Texas City 0.53 in 0805 AM 06/17
...Grimes County...
Navasota 2.15 in 0805 AM 06/17
Iola 10.4 SSW 2.08 in 0800 AM 06/17
Navasota 1.71 in 0800 AM 06/17
...Harris County...
Spring 2.88 in 0804 AM 06/17
2 WNW Spring 2.56 in 0805 AM 06/17
Mission Bend 0.8 N 2.54 in 0600 AM 06/17
Kingwood 3.9 S 2.46 in 0700 AM 06/17
Crosby 2.45 in 0800 AM 06/17
Mission Bend 5.7 NNW 2.35 in 0700 AM 06/17
Spring 2.32 in 0804 AM 06/17
Humble 2.30 in 0800 AM 06/17
Cloverleaf 1.7 W 2.25 in 0600 AM 06/17
N100 1420 Carpenters Bayou @ 2.08 in 0515 AM 06/17
S100 1940 Luce Bayou @ Fm 21 2.08 in 0715 AM 06/17
2 NNW Pasadena 1.99 in 0805 AM 06/17
Hedwig Village 1.1 NNW 1.87 in 0700 AM 06/17
Cypress 1.79 in 0802 AM 06/17
Houston 1.79 in 0802 AM 06/17
Spring 7.1 WSW 1.79 in 0530 AM 06/17
2 NE South Houston 1.71 in 0805 AM 06/17
South Houston 3.0 S 1.68 in 0600 AM 06/17
Houston 1.66 in 0744 AM 06/17
3 W Bunker Hill Village 1.65 in 0805 AM 06/17
K100 1175 Cypress Creek @ Us 1.64 in 0727 AM 06/17
P138 1695 @ Aldine Westfield 1.64 in 0510 AM 06/17
Katy 1.63 in 0800 AM 06/17
Deer Park 1.62 in 0805 AM 06/17
Houston 1.62 in 0803 AM 06/17
Bunker Hill Village 3.6 NNW 1.60 in 0605 AM 06/17
Cypress 1.58 in 0804 AM 06/17
B112 270 Willow Spring Bayou 1.55 in 0721 AM 06/17
W156 2280 Rummel Creek @ Bri 1.48 in 0625 AM 06/17
Houston 1.47 in 0803 AM 06/17
Houston 1.47 in 0800 AM 06/17
Houston 2.1 SSW 1.46 in 0700 AM 06/17
Houston 1.41 in 0801 AM 06/17
Cypress 1.35 in 0802 AM 06/17
1 ESE Houston 1.35 in 1242 AM 06/17
2 WSW Kingwood 1.35 in 0805 AM 06/17
Houston 2.1 NNE 1.35 in 0700 AM 06/17
Tomball 4.6 SSW 1.34 in 0700 AM 06/17
W100 2240 Buffalo Bayou @ Sh 1.32 in 0715 AM 06/17
L100 1210 Little Cypress Cre 1.29 in 0731 AM 06/17
T101 2020 Mason Creek @ Prin 1.28 in 0629 AM 06/17
D100 420 Brays Bayou @ South 1.24 in 0731 AM 06/17
Houston 1.23 in 0803 AM 06/17
Tomball 1.23 in 0804 AM 06/17
Westbury 1.20 in 0700 AM 06/17
L100 1230 Little Cypress Cre 1.20 in 0733 AM 06/17
2 NE Meadows 1.19 in 0805 AM 06/17
Pasadena 4.4 WNW 1.19 in 0654 AM 06/17
2 ESE Houston 1.17 in 0805 AM 06/17
Tomball 1.14 in 0800 AM 06/17
F101 640 Lateral @ Sens Road 1.12 in 0758 AM 06/17
P100 1600 Greens Bayou @ Mou 1.12 in 0630 AM 06/17
West University Place 0.4 WN 1.10 in 0700 AM 06/17
U101 2190 South Mayde Creek 1.08 in 0711 AM 06/17
Spring 1.08 in 0805 AM 06/17
4 ESE Houston 1.07 in 0805 AM 06/17
Baytown 1.05 in 0805 AM 06/17
4 S Aldine 1.05 in 0805 AM 06/17
U100 2140 Langham Creek @ Lo 1.04 in 0706 AM 06/17
Hockley 1.03 in 0803 AM 06/17
Houston 1.01 in 0804 AM 06/17
P100 1670 Greens Bayou @ Cut 0.97 in 0750 AM 06/17
Houston 0.96 in 0800 AM 06/17
4 NNW Houston 0.96 in 0804 AM 06/17
K100 1160 Cypress Creek @ Gr 0.92 in 0723 AM 06/17
U106 2130 Horsepen Creek @ T 0.91 in 0658 AM 06/17
K100 1180 Cypress Creek @ Ka 0.88 in 0729 AM 06/17
Southside Place 0.87 in 0805 AM 06/17
Houston 0.86 in 0803 AM 06/17
Houston 0.85 in 0759 AM 06/17
Houston 0.84 in 0802 AM 06/17
2 NNE South Houston 0.83 in 0805 AM 06/17
Friendswood 0.82 in 0800 AM 06/17
Webster 3.9 NNW 0.82 in 0706 AM 06/17
Houston 0.80 in 0801 AM 06/17
Webster 0.80 in 0800 AM 06/17
W100 2210 Buffalo Bayou @ Tu 0.80 in 0713 AM 06/17
4 W Spring 0.80 in 0804 AM 06/17
P100 1665 Greens Bayou @ Bam 0.79 in 0643 AM 06/17
Houston 0.79 in 0801 AM 06/17
1 SE Hunters Creek Village 0.78 in 0805 AM 06/17
W100 2220 Buffalo Bayou @ Mi 0.76 in 0713 AM 06/17
B104 250 Horsepen Creek @ Ba 0.76 in 0559 AM 06/17
2 NE Pearland 0.75 in 0805 AM 06/17
1 N West University Place 0.75 in 0804 AM 06/17
2 SE Hunters Creek Village 0.74 in 0805 AM 06/17
El Lago 0.73 in 0800 AM 06/17
Friendswood 2.6 NE 0.71 in 0700 AM 06/17
E100 550 White Oak Bayou @ L 0.68 in 0748 AM 06/17
Pasadena 0.66 in 0804 AM 06/17
Webster 0.4 NW 0.66 in 0700 AM 06/17
A100 130 Clear Creek @ Bay A 0.64 in 0753 AM 06/17
A104 610 Taylor'S Bayou @ Sh 0.64 in 0756 AM 06/17
Houston 0.61 in 0800 AM 06/17
1 E West University Place 0.51 in 0707 AM 06/17
Ih 10 East Of Washington Ave 0.43 in 0709 AM 06/17
...Houston County...
Crockett 1.8 NNE 3.55 in 0700 AM 06/17
Crockett 0.97 in 0800 AM 06/17
...Jackson County...
Lolita 3.27 in 0803 AM 06/17
Lnra Hq Precip 1.58 in 0749 AM 06/17
Francitas 1.29 in 0802 AM 06/17
Edna 3.8 NNW 1.05 in 0700 AM 06/17
Palacios 0.78 in 0801 AM 06/17
Row Precip 0.71 in 0445 AM 06/17
Tailwater Precip 0.51 in 0559 AM 06/17
Lavaca River Precip 0.47 in 0454 AM 06/17
Ganado 0.41 in 0800 AM 06/17
Fm616 Bridge Precip 0.35 in 0439 AM 06/17
Sale Barn Precip 0.28 in 0525 AM 06/17
Dry Creekatwest Main Precip 0.27 in 0510 AM 06/17
Bpc Stp Precip 0.24 in 0538 AM 06/17
...Liberty County...
Dayton 1.1 SE 1.61 in 0600 AM 06/17
Dayton 1.60 in 0722 AM 06/17
Dayton 0.2 E 1.30 in 0700 AM 06/17
Q100 1740 Cedar Bayou @ Us 9 1.28 in 0757 AM 06/17
1 NNW Liberty 1.20 in 0804 AM 06/17
...Madison County...
North Zulch 1.27 in 0800 AM 06/17
Madisonville 0.68 in 0805 AM 06/17
...Matagorda County...
Sargent 1 Ene 1.82 in 0700 AM 06/17
Markham 0.52 in 0801 AM 06/17
Tres Palacios At 521 Precip 0.47 in 0535 AM 06/17
...Montgomery County...
The Woodlands 1.8 SE 4.02 in 0655 AM 06/17
Conroe 3.40 in 0759 AM 06/17
Spring 4.0 N 3.30 in 0700 AM 06/17
Houston 3.29 in 0757 AM 06/17
Spring 3.09 in 0802 AM 06/17
Oak Ridge North 2.97 in 0742 AM 06/17
Willis 2.80 in 0804 AM 06/17
Roman Forest 1.9 ENE 2.74 in 0700 AM 06/17
Montgomery 2.50 in 0658 AM 06/17
Montgomery 2.6 NE 2.26 in 0700 AM 06/17
The Woodlands 3.7 NNW 2.24 in 0700 AM 06/17
Montgomery 4.0 N 2.08 in 0741 AM 06/17
Caney Creek 1.96 in 0736 AM 06/17
Stagecoach 2.8 W 1.75 in 0600 AM 06/17
4 NW The Woodlands 1.69 in 0804 AM 06/17
Magnolia 1.67 in 0800 AM 06/17
Willis 1.60 in 0800 AM 06/17
The Woodlands 5.8 NW 1.60 in 0700 AM 06/17
Pinehurst 3.8 SE 1.59 in 0747 AM 06/17
Magnolia 1.58 in 0757 AM 06/17
Magnolia 2.8 S 1.58 in 0700 AM 06/17
Montgomery 1.52 in 0751 AM 06/17
The Woodlands 1.50 in 0800 AM 06/17
Tomball 1.40 in 0800 AM 06/17
Conroe 1.06 in 0803 AM 06/17
Willis 0.68 in 0142 AM 06/17
...Polk County...
Livingston 13.4 NW 2.97 in 0700 AM 06/17
Onalaska 0.6 WSW 2.38 in 0700 AM 06/17
...San Jacinto County...
Oakhurst 3.6 SSE 3.17 in 0630 AM 06/17
Coldspring 2.36 in 0801 AM 06/17
...Trinity County...
Trinity 5.1 NW 2.71 in 0700 AM 06/17
Trinity 2.9 E 2.30 in 0700 AM 06/17
...Walker County...
Dodge 1.6 S 3.84 in 0800 AM 06/17
Huntsville 2.8 WSW 3.43 in 0700 AM 06/17
Huntsville 7.1 ESE 2.95 in 0530 AM 06/17
Huntsville 11.5 WSW 2.77 in 0700 AM 06/17
Huntsville 4.8 NNW 2.45 in 0630 AM 06/17
...Waller County...
Katy 0.8 WNW 1.61 in 0600 AM 06/17
Katy 1.57 in 0802 AM 06/17
Hockley 1.07 in 0803 AM 06/17
Brookshire 0.88 in 0802 AM 06/17
...Washington County...
Burton 5.3 NNE 2.50 in 0800 AM 06/17
Carmine 3.1 WNW 2.15 in 0700 AM 06/17
Brenham 1.74 in 0801 AM 06/17
4 NNE Burton 1.73 in 0805 AM 06/17
Brenham 1.66 in 0803 AM 06/17
Brenham 1.7 SW 1.58 in 0625 AM 06/17
Brenham 1.3 ESE 1.49 in 0700 AM 06/17
Brenham 8.2 WSW 1.41 in 0700 AM 06/17
Chappell Hill 1.8 N 1.10 in 0700 AM 06/17
Chappell Hill 1.0 NW 1.04 in 0639 AM 06/17
Brenham 8.0 E 1.01 in 0635 AM 06/17
Burton 6.9 SSW 0.88 in 0700 AM 06/17
...Wharton County...
Colorado River Nr Glen Flora 1.06 in 0700 AM 06/17
El Campo 4.9 SSE 0.87 in 0700 AM 06/17
El Campo 1.0 NW 0.82 in 0600 AM 06/17
Danevang 1 W 0.77 in 0700 AM 06/17
Wharton 0.3 E 0.66 in 0700 AM 06/17
El Campo 2 NW 0.59 in 0700 AM 06/17
Cat Spring 0.46 in 0800 AM 06/17
...Maritime Stations...
San Jacinto River @ I 10 0.36 in 0746 AM 06/17
&&
...24 HOUR HIGHEST WIND REPORTS...
Location Speed Time/Date
...Texas...
...Austin County...
San Felipe 31 MPH 1103 PM 06/16
...Brazoria County...
Freeport 46 MPH 1255 AM 06/17
USCG Freeport, TX 32 MPH 0100 AM 06/17
Pearland 24 MPH 1152 PM 06/16
Alvin 23 MPH 1203 AM 06/17
...Brazos County...
Varsco 20 MPH 0810 PM 06/16
...Burleson County...
College Station 35 MPH 0923 PM 06/16
...Chambers County...
Anahuac 28 MPH 0912 PM 06/16
...Colorado County...
Weimar 26 MPH 1131 AM 06/16
Wied Ranch 26 MPH 1145 PM 06/16
7 W Eagle Lake 23 MPH 0224 PM 06/16
...Fort Bend County...
Missouri City 40 MPH 1241 PM 06/16
Rosenberg 38 MPH 1130 PM 06/16
Robinw 33 MPH 1115 PM 06/16
Richmond 26 MPH 0101 PM 06/16
3 NW Richmond 25 MPH 0230 PM 06/16
Katy 23 MPH 1000 AM 06/16
Stafford 23 MPH 1133 PM 06/16
Sugar Land 21 MPH 1132 PM 06/16
Katy 20 MPH 0443 AM 06/17
...Galveston County...
Texas City 39 MPH 1235 AM 06/17
Crab Lake 36 MPH 1250 AM 06/17
Santa Fe 30 MPH 1230 AM 06/17
Levee 30 MPH 1256 AM 06/17
League City 27 MPH 1216 AM 06/17
La Marque 24 MPH 1246 AM 06/17
...Grimes County...
Navasota 37 MPH 1001 PM 06/16
Navasota 21 MPH 0950 PM 06/16
...Harris County...
Jsc Bldg. 30 Campbell 40 MPH 1222 AM 06/17
Morgans Point, TX 34 MPH 0854 PM 06/16
Houston 33 MPH 0105 PM 06/16
Spring 32 MPH 1103 PM 06/16
Cypress 31 MPH 1102 PM 06/16
Houston 31 MPH 1117 PM 06/16
Hockley 31 MPH 1043 PM 06/16
Clear Lake Park 30 MPH 1207 AM 06/17
Houston 29 MPH 1230 AM 06/17
Houston 29 MPH 1120 PM 06/16
Humble 28 MPH 1230 PM 06/16
Cypress 28 MPH 0112 PM 06/16
El Lago 27 MPH 0131 PM 06/16
Pasadena 26 MPH 0239 PM 06/16
Houston 26 MPH 1056 AM 06/16
Houston 25 MPH 0239 PM 06/16
2 NE South Houston 25 MPH 1145 PM 06/16
Houston 24 MPH 1245 PM 06/16
Houston 23 MPH 0924 AM 06/16
Houston 23 MPH 1001 AM 06/16
Houston 21 MPH 1128 PM 06/16
2 NE Meadows 21 MPH 1245 PM 06/16
Tomball 20 MPH 0330 PM 06/16
Houston 20 MPH 1131 AM 06/16
...Houston County...
Crockett 33 MPH 0316 PM 06/16
...Jackson County...
Palacios 44 MPH 0401 AM 06/17
Ganado 35 MPH 0353 AM 06/17
Lolita 33 MPH 0147 AM 06/17
La Ward 31 MPH 0358 AM 06/17
...Liberty County...
Dayton 32 MPH 1222 AM 06/17
...Madison County...
North Zulch 23 MPH 0927 AM 06/16
...Matagorda County...
Markham 34 MPH 1235 AM 06/17
...Montgomery County...
Houston 31 MPH 1057 PM 06/16
Oak Ridge North 27 MPH 1057 PM 06/16
Magnolia 23 MPH 1042 PM 06/16
Conroe 21 MPH 0159 PM 06/16
Tomball 20 MPH 1041 PM 06/16
Willis 20 MPH 0224 PM 06/16
...San Jacinto County...
Coldspring 42 MPH 0530 PM 06/16
...Waller County...
Hempstead 40 MPH 1015 PM 06/16
Katy 25 MPH 0547 PM 06/16
...Washington County...
Brenham 38 MPH 1003 PM 06/16
Brenham 23 MPH 1010 PM 06/16
...Wharton County...
Ebrnrd 24 MPH 0920 AM 06/16
...Maritime Stations...
Galveston Bay Entrance, Nort 48 MPH 0112 AM 06/17
High Is. 179a 47 MPH 0135 AM 06/17
Matagorda Bay 45 MPH 0441 AM 06/17
Pcnt2 41 MPH 0424 AM 06/17
Galveston Fishing Pier 40 MPH 0108 AM 06/17
Galveston 35 MPH 0101 AM 06/17
Galveston Bay 35 MPH 0927 PM 06/16
Eagle Point, TX 34 MPH 0930 PM 06/16
Observations are collected from a variety of sources with varying
equipment and exposures. We thank all volunteer weather observers
for their dedication. Not all data listed are considered official.
$$
I’ve had 3.80” since Saturday afternoon. Not bad - plants and yard are replenished.
2.5 in total IMBY over3 storms, including the 2 outflow boundaries. A pleasant, cool morning, delaying The Big Suck by a couple more days. Sprinklers off for the week to 10 days!
the moon was absolutely gorgeous last night when I briefly checked it out - storms off in the direction of Spring/Woodlands area & lightning in that direction, Jupiter off to it's right & a general fog/mist frosting it's light - just stunning, wish I had a pic
https://earthsky.org/tonight/strawberry ... -till-dawn
https://earthsky.org/tonight/strawberry ... -till-dawn
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4488
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
000
FXUS64 KHGX 171750
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1250 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2019
.AVIATION...
VFR throughout most of the period. Cirrus overcast is thinning
and expecting mainly clear skies at times this afternoon over
many local air fields. Mainly clear skies may warm temperatures up
into the middle to possibly upper 80s. This may be enough to
allow showers and/or isolated storm cells to develop along many
prior outflow boundaries laying in wait within this humid air
mass. A slight chance for either near sunrise MVFR ceilings or
patchy fog out west Tuesday morning. VCSH in late period to
account for mesoscale breeze-induced shower/isolated storm
activity. 31
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2019/
UPDATE...
Light rain shield over the southeastern CWA has significantly
shrunk and expecting a few hours of mainly overcast and no
precipitation. Cirrus blow off has kept many in the relatively
cooler middle 70s this morning and this will act to inhibit any
late morning into early afternoon convective development.
Numerous boundaries laying around on which to focus on but likely
need lower to middle 80 warmth to tap into higher level lapse
rates and produce the required lift for the re-generation of
sct showers and isolated storm cells. Low end chances of afternoon
rain but, with partial clearing, wouldn`t be surprised to see
some random firing of -SHRA or even -TSRA by 5 or 6 PM. Weak
steering flow equates to slow storm motion so the main threat mode
will be localized nuisance flooding from any cell that puts down
near 2 inch per hour rates over antecedent 24 rainfall that has
moistened lower layer soils. Slight to low end rain chances exist
tomorrow primary for ordinary pop-up cells that may form along the
meso-breezes or interact with residual boundaries within this
continued humid environment. 31
FXUS64 KHGX 171750
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1250 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2019
.AVIATION...
VFR throughout most of the period. Cirrus overcast is thinning
and expecting mainly clear skies at times this afternoon over
many local air fields. Mainly clear skies may warm temperatures up
into the middle to possibly upper 80s. This may be enough to
allow showers and/or isolated storm cells to develop along many
prior outflow boundaries laying in wait within this humid air
mass. A slight chance for either near sunrise MVFR ceilings or
patchy fog out west Tuesday morning. VCSH in late period to
account for mesoscale breeze-induced shower/isolated storm
activity. 31
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2019/
UPDATE...
Light rain shield over the southeastern CWA has significantly
shrunk and expecting a few hours of mainly overcast and no
precipitation. Cirrus blow off has kept many in the relatively
cooler middle 70s this morning and this will act to inhibit any
late morning into early afternoon convective development.
Numerous boundaries laying around on which to focus on but likely
need lower to middle 80 warmth to tap into higher level lapse
rates and produce the required lift for the re-generation of
sct showers and isolated storm cells. Low end chances of afternoon
rain but, with partial clearing, wouldn`t be surprised to see
some random firing of -SHRA or even -TSRA by 5 or 6 PM. Weak
steering flow equates to slow storm motion so the main threat mode
will be localized nuisance flooding from any cell that puts down
near 2 inch per hour rates over antecedent 24 rainfall that has
moistened lower layer soils. Slight to low end rain chances exist
tomorrow primary for ordinary pop-up cells that may form along the
meso-breezes or interact with residual boundaries within this
continued humid environment. 31
what's with the crazy wind forecast for Galveston this weekend? 20-30?? geez.
Models look ok for rain over the next couple weeks. 1-3” for southeast Texas.
-
Texaspirate11
- Posts: 1278
- Joined: Tue Dec 31, 2013 12:24 am
- Contact:
- Moon over the bay
Just because you're disabled, you don't have to be a victim
Be Weather Aware & Prepared!
Barbara Jordan Winner in Media
Disability Integration Consultant
Be Weather Aware & Prepared!
Barbara Jordan Winner in Media
Disability Integration Consultant
-
Texaspirate11
- Posts: 1278
- Joined: Tue Dec 31, 2013 12:24 am
- Contact:
Dont know how my picture came out sideways - in any event, it was a lovely moon last night off the bay
Just because you're disabled, you don't have to be a victim
Be Weather Aware & Prepared!
Barbara Jordan Winner in Media
Disability Integration Consultant
Be Weather Aware & Prepared!
Barbara Jordan Winner in Media
Disability Integration Consultant
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4488
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
000
FXUS64 KHGX 191143
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
643 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019
.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...
GOES 16 nighttime RGB imagery showing some low stratus from near
Columbus to Conroe northward towards College Station. These
IFR/MVFR ceilngs look to be rather transient lasting maybe a
couple of hours tops. Winds should increase from the S/SW and mix
out any of the lower cloud decks. There is also some patchy fog
but mainly west of the main terminals this morning and where skies
have remained clear. There could be a few gusts this afternoon
but overall expect VFR conditions.
We will need to monitor tonight for a line of storms that
originates from north Texas and moves towards KUTS around
midnight. Line storms should be weakening as it moves into the
area but could cause a few lingering showers into Thursday
morning. For now confidence is pretty low but will monitor trends
in HRRR and WRF models.
Overpeck
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 358 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019/...
.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
The mesocale convective system in Oklahoma and north Texas sure does
stick out on satellite imagery this morning. Upper level analysis
has a jet streak at 300/250mb over north Texas with a weak shortwave
reflected down at 500mb. Boundary layer flow looks rather weak from
850mb down to the surface but there is at least a sign of a pressure
gradient with lowering pressures under the MCS and high pressure in
the northern Gulf. This means flow should be more from the S/SW
given the gradient orientation for today.
Short term guidance continue to suggest the current MCS to move east
and northeast with this initial shortwave. Another trough axis now
over the Rockies should maintain a progressive pattern and move into
the Plains tonight. There should be enough lift from this trough
axis and the jet streak to allow for more convection to develop over
north Texas tonight.
HREF (and therefore WRF runs) show decent agreement with a line of
storms moving into Madison/Houston/Trinity counties 03Z to 09Z
tonight and likely weakening as it moves SE into the area. This
activity could spark new convection overnight into Thursday morning
but this activity should fall apart pretty quickly since there will
be some capping to contend with and lapse rates will not be as
steep. SPC has a marginal/general thunder risks for the area from
north to south which matches well with this thinking. If there is a
severe weather hazard it would likely be damaging winds from
thunderstorm outflows and a decaying MCS.
The other concern for today will be the heat. Yes we know, it`s
summer, it`s supposed to be hot, this is Texas it always gets hot in
June, yada yada yada. Still for mid/late June high temperatures in
the mid 90s and dewpoints in the mid 70s that don`t look to mix out
much support heat index values today in the 103F to 107F range. We
very well could be close to the 108F heat advisory criteria
especially west of College Station to Katy to Wharton. We would not
be surprised if an area briefly hit 108F or higher for an hour but
do not see widespread areas reaching criteria. We may need to
include some of these areas in a heat advisory that match up with
the advisories for central Texas but likely see how temperature
trends play out today.
Overpeck
.SHORT TERM [Thursday]...
There is a hint of upper level ridging for Thursday that should
limit thunderstorm activity over the area for Thursday. Pressure
gradient looks to increase a little more allowing for decent
southerly winds. Winds should be directed from the SW again which
will only increase capping. 850mb temperatures increase a bit
closer to 23-25C over the area which would support high
temperatures in the upper 90s. The century mark might be a bit
elusive given relatively moist grounds from rainfall the last
couple of weeks, but grounds are drying out faster. Urban heating
may be an issue but again think there has been enough rain to
counter. High temperatures in the upper 90s looks on track and
dewpoints still in the low/mid 70s yield heat index values above
108F for a much larger area on Thursday. We will likely issue a
heat advisory for Thursday later today or tonight.
Overpeck
.LONG TERM [Thursday Night Through Wednesday]...
With low level flow backing slightly to have a greater onshore
component, and with the ridge aloft potentially weakening very
slightly, some of the guidance is trying to introduce nocturnal
showers over the Gulf as early as Thursday night. This seems
likely as we`ll have drier low level air to moisten up first, and
then we`ll have a brief downward trend in precipitable water on
Friday. Because of this, I hold back the return of any PoPs until
we get a new slug of moisture on Saturday, and no real decent
chances until Sunday. Decent chances for rain should continue into
the early portion of next week as a northern stream trough digs
into the Southern Plains, briefly knocking back to subtropical
ridge. Beyond that, look for the ridge to gradually build back,
with rainfall patterns returning to a diurnal pattern.
As noted last night, I expect that the backing of low level winds
will put an end to hot, downsloping winds out of Mexico. Because
of this, I continue to give the high temperature forecast a modest
downward trend after Thursday into the weekend. This "cooldown"
(with extreme emphasis on the sarcastic quotation marks) may be
enough to keep us from stringing together multiple days of heat
advisories, but we`ll still spend several days with a maximum heat
index above 100 across the area, and with wide swaths of the area in
the 105-108 range. This puts us in that awkward gray area we spend
large chunks of the summer in - where the heat can still be
dangerous to those sensitive to the heat (the elderly, children,
others with heat sensitivities) but not at a level of heat that is
abnormally extreme (Just the normal extreme, really).
Ultimately, it never hurts to be proactive in mitigating the
potential for heat illness. And in the summertime it is NEVER safe
to leave people or pets in parked cars. At virtually any
reasonable temperature for us to see during the summer in
Southeast Texas, solar heating can turn the inside of a car
lethally hot in a tragically short amount of time, even with
windows cracked open. We know we go over this an annoying number
of times every summer, but we want to ingrain heat safety as a
constant habit as most tragedies with parked cars occur when
infants are passengers in a break from the usual routine, or when
unattended children climb into cars on their own. The only way we
know to overcome these situations is to make practicing heat
safety an unconscious reflex.
.MARINE...
Weak high pressure is drifting away from the area, but should
keep light winds in the forecast through the afternoon. As the
high drifts farther away and low pressure begins to develop in the
Plains, onshore winds will become stronger as the pressure
gradient tightens. Expect these stronger winds to remain for
several days.
Confidence is growing in the potential for small
craft advisories at some point this weekend, though exact time
frames cannot yet be determined. Additionally, the persistent
fetch of stronger onshore winds are likely to elevate tides and
increase rip current strength at area beaches.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 96 78 98 78 97 / 10 20 10 0 10
Houston (IAH) 96 80 96 80 95 / 10 20 10 0 10
Galveston (GLS) 89 83 91 83 89 / 10 20 10 0 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
AVIATION...Overpeck
FXUS64 KHGX 191143
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
643 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019
.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...
GOES 16 nighttime RGB imagery showing some low stratus from near
Columbus to Conroe northward towards College Station. These
IFR/MVFR ceilngs look to be rather transient lasting maybe a
couple of hours tops. Winds should increase from the S/SW and mix
out any of the lower cloud decks. There is also some patchy fog
but mainly west of the main terminals this morning and where skies
have remained clear. There could be a few gusts this afternoon
but overall expect VFR conditions.
We will need to monitor tonight for a line of storms that
originates from north Texas and moves towards KUTS around
midnight. Line storms should be weakening as it moves into the
area but could cause a few lingering showers into Thursday
morning. For now confidence is pretty low but will monitor trends
in HRRR and WRF models.
Overpeck
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 358 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019/...
.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
The mesocale convective system in Oklahoma and north Texas sure does
stick out on satellite imagery this morning. Upper level analysis
has a jet streak at 300/250mb over north Texas with a weak shortwave
reflected down at 500mb. Boundary layer flow looks rather weak from
850mb down to the surface but there is at least a sign of a pressure
gradient with lowering pressures under the MCS and high pressure in
the northern Gulf. This means flow should be more from the S/SW
given the gradient orientation for today.
Short term guidance continue to suggest the current MCS to move east
and northeast with this initial shortwave. Another trough axis now
over the Rockies should maintain a progressive pattern and move into
the Plains tonight. There should be enough lift from this trough
axis and the jet streak to allow for more convection to develop over
north Texas tonight.
HREF (and therefore WRF runs) show decent agreement with a line of
storms moving into Madison/Houston/Trinity counties 03Z to 09Z
tonight and likely weakening as it moves SE into the area. This
activity could spark new convection overnight into Thursday morning
but this activity should fall apart pretty quickly since there will
be some capping to contend with and lapse rates will not be as
steep. SPC has a marginal/general thunder risks for the area from
north to south which matches well with this thinking. If there is a
severe weather hazard it would likely be damaging winds from
thunderstorm outflows and a decaying MCS.
The other concern for today will be the heat. Yes we know, it`s
summer, it`s supposed to be hot, this is Texas it always gets hot in
June, yada yada yada. Still for mid/late June high temperatures in
the mid 90s and dewpoints in the mid 70s that don`t look to mix out
much support heat index values today in the 103F to 107F range. We
very well could be close to the 108F heat advisory criteria
especially west of College Station to Katy to Wharton. We would not
be surprised if an area briefly hit 108F or higher for an hour but
do not see widespread areas reaching criteria. We may need to
include some of these areas in a heat advisory that match up with
the advisories for central Texas but likely see how temperature
trends play out today.
Overpeck
.SHORT TERM [Thursday]...
There is a hint of upper level ridging for Thursday that should
limit thunderstorm activity over the area for Thursday. Pressure
gradient looks to increase a little more allowing for decent
southerly winds. Winds should be directed from the SW again which
will only increase capping. 850mb temperatures increase a bit
closer to 23-25C over the area which would support high
temperatures in the upper 90s. The century mark might be a bit
elusive given relatively moist grounds from rainfall the last
couple of weeks, but grounds are drying out faster. Urban heating
may be an issue but again think there has been enough rain to
counter. High temperatures in the upper 90s looks on track and
dewpoints still in the low/mid 70s yield heat index values above
108F for a much larger area on Thursday. We will likely issue a
heat advisory for Thursday later today or tonight.
Overpeck
.LONG TERM [Thursday Night Through Wednesday]...
With low level flow backing slightly to have a greater onshore
component, and with the ridge aloft potentially weakening very
slightly, some of the guidance is trying to introduce nocturnal
showers over the Gulf as early as Thursday night. This seems
likely as we`ll have drier low level air to moisten up first, and
then we`ll have a brief downward trend in precipitable water on
Friday. Because of this, I hold back the return of any PoPs until
we get a new slug of moisture on Saturday, and no real decent
chances until Sunday. Decent chances for rain should continue into
the early portion of next week as a northern stream trough digs
into the Southern Plains, briefly knocking back to subtropical
ridge. Beyond that, look for the ridge to gradually build back,
with rainfall patterns returning to a diurnal pattern.
As noted last night, I expect that the backing of low level winds
will put an end to hot, downsloping winds out of Mexico. Because
of this, I continue to give the high temperature forecast a modest
downward trend after Thursday into the weekend. This "cooldown"
(with extreme emphasis on the sarcastic quotation marks) may be
enough to keep us from stringing together multiple days of heat
advisories, but we`ll still spend several days with a maximum heat
index above 100 across the area, and with wide swaths of the area in
the 105-108 range. This puts us in that awkward gray area we spend
large chunks of the summer in - where the heat can still be
dangerous to those sensitive to the heat (the elderly, children,
others with heat sensitivities) but not at a level of heat that is
abnormally extreme (Just the normal extreme, really).
Ultimately, it never hurts to be proactive in mitigating the
potential for heat illness. And in the summertime it is NEVER safe
to leave people or pets in parked cars. At virtually any
reasonable temperature for us to see during the summer in
Southeast Texas, solar heating can turn the inside of a car
lethally hot in a tragically short amount of time, even with
windows cracked open. We know we go over this an annoying number
of times every summer, but we want to ingrain heat safety as a
constant habit as most tragedies with parked cars occur when
infants are passengers in a break from the usual routine, or when
unattended children climb into cars on their own. The only way we
know to overcome these situations is to make practicing heat
safety an unconscious reflex.
.MARINE...
Weak high pressure is drifting away from the area, but should
keep light winds in the forecast through the afternoon. As the
high drifts farther away and low pressure begins to develop in the
Plains, onshore winds will become stronger as the pressure
gradient tightens. Expect these stronger winds to remain for
several days.
Confidence is growing in the potential for small
craft advisories at some point this weekend, though exact time
frames cannot yet be determined. Additionally, the persistent
fetch of stronger onshore winds are likely to elevate tides and
increase rip current strength at area beaches.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 96 78 98 78 97 / 10 20 10 0 10
Houston (IAH) 96 80 96 80 95 / 10 20 10 0 10
Galveston (GLS) 89 83 91 83 89 / 10 20 10 0 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
AVIATION...Overpeck
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4488
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
000
FXUS64 KHGX 192012
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
312 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019
.SHORT TERM [Through Thursday Afternoon]...
Mid level trof axis extending from western KS into eastern NM
should make its way ese overnight. Look for convection to develop
across n TX later this aftn and evng as atmos destabilizes in
advance. Will be keeping an eye on trends as some guidance
indicates the potential for some remnants of the precipitation to
clip northern parts of the area from roughly 9pm-3am. Assuming
timing is about right, think it`ll be in the decaying stage if
this occurs as capping and loss of heating becomes an issue.
Should things evolve a bit faster than anticipated, cannot
completely rule out some isolated stronger cells in our ne zones
closer to Houston County.
Overnight lows shouldn`t fall all that much overnight and might not
make it below 80 near the metro areas. A quicker warm up tomorrow
and less dewpoint mixing should yield heat index values topping out
around heat advsy criteria across a wider portion of se Tx tomorrow.
Winds will be in the 10-20mph range which should provide a little
relief, but the usual heat precautions should be taken. A heat
advisory will likely be needed, but will let the midnight crew
evaluate the finer details and make the final decision. 47
&&
.LONG TERM [Thursday night through Wednesday]...
Hot and humid will remain the words of the day through most of the
weekend as shortwave ridging remains entrenched over sern TX.
Sunday may be the exception, and especially the early part of
next week, as a western U.S. trough deepens and places the area
under southwest flow aloft with a series of shortwave troughs
moving across the area Monday and Tuesday. This will generally
increase clouds and rain chances, especially into Monday. Still
remains some uncertainty on timing of these impulses, as well as
how strong they will be. However, will keep with general trend of
at least chance wording for diurnal showers and tstms early next
week, with better chances across the north. The increase in
clouds and precipitation chances will also keep max temps mostly
in the lower 90s Sunday through Tuesday. By mid week, we may see a
return to the hotter temps as ridging once again starts to take
hold.
Evans
&&
.MARINE...
Weak high pressure is drifting away from the area, but should
keep light winds in the forecast through the afternoon. As the
high drifts farther away and low pressure begins to develop in the
Plains, onshore winds will become stronger as the pressure
gradient tightens. Expect these stronger winds to remain for
several days.
Confidence is growing in the potential for small
craft advisories at some point this weekend, though exact time
frames cannot yet be determined. Additionally, the persistent
fetch of stronger onshore winds are likely to elevate tides and
increase rip current strength at area beaches. 47
&&
.AVIATION /ISSUED 1255 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019/...
VFR conditions are expected into the evening hours with ssw winds
10-20kt. Will be keeping an eye on convective development across
north Tx late this afternoon and evening and the possibilities
some remnants sag into northern parts of se Tx in the 3-9z
timeframe. Current thinking is that most activity will remain
north & northeast of the area TAF sites so will not be including
the mention of precip in the TAFs for now. Otherwise, like today,
some intermittent late night MVFR ceilings will be possible
followed by VFR conditions the remainder of the day Wednesday. 47
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 78 97 78 96 78 / 30 10 0 10 10
Houston (IAH) 80 96 80 94 80 / 20 10 0 10 10
Galveston (GLS) 82 91 83 89 83 / 10 10 0 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
FXUS64 KHGX 192012
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
312 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019
.SHORT TERM [Through Thursday Afternoon]...
Mid level trof axis extending from western KS into eastern NM
should make its way ese overnight. Look for convection to develop
across n TX later this aftn and evng as atmos destabilizes in
advance. Will be keeping an eye on trends as some guidance
indicates the potential for some remnants of the precipitation to
clip northern parts of the area from roughly 9pm-3am. Assuming
timing is about right, think it`ll be in the decaying stage if
this occurs as capping and loss of heating becomes an issue.
Should things evolve a bit faster than anticipated, cannot
completely rule out some isolated stronger cells in our ne zones
closer to Houston County.
Overnight lows shouldn`t fall all that much overnight and might not
make it below 80 near the metro areas. A quicker warm up tomorrow
and less dewpoint mixing should yield heat index values topping out
around heat advsy criteria across a wider portion of se Tx tomorrow.
Winds will be in the 10-20mph range which should provide a little
relief, but the usual heat precautions should be taken. A heat
advisory will likely be needed, but will let the midnight crew
evaluate the finer details and make the final decision. 47
&&
.LONG TERM [Thursday night through Wednesday]...
Hot and humid will remain the words of the day through most of the
weekend as shortwave ridging remains entrenched over sern TX.
Sunday may be the exception, and especially the early part of
next week, as a western U.S. trough deepens and places the area
under southwest flow aloft with a series of shortwave troughs
moving across the area Monday and Tuesday. This will generally
increase clouds and rain chances, especially into Monday. Still
remains some uncertainty on timing of these impulses, as well as
how strong they will be. However, will keep with general trend of
at least chance wording for diurnal showers and tstms early next
week, with better chances across the north. The increase in
clouds and precipitation chances will also keep max temps mostly
in the lower 90s Sunday through Tuesday. By mid week, we may see a
return to the hotter temps as ridging once again starts to take
hold.
Evans
&&
.MARINE...
Weak high pressure is drifting away from the area, but should
keep light winds in the forecast through the afternoon. As the
high drifts farther away and low pressure begins to develop in the
Plains, onshore winds will become stronger as the pressure
gradient tightens. Expect these stronger winds to remain for
several days.
Confidence is growing in the potential for small
craft advisories at some point this weekend, though exact time
frames cannot yet be determined. Additionally, the persistent
fetch of stronger onshore winds are likely to elevate tides and
increase rip current strength at area beaches. 47
&&
.AVIATION /ISSUED 1255 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019/...
VFR conditions are expected into the evening hours with ssw winds
10-20kt. Will be keeping an eye on convective development across
north Tx late this afternoon and evening and the possibilities
some remnants sag into northern parts of se Tx in the 3-9z
timeframe. Current thinking is that most activity will remain
north & northeast of the area TAF sites so will not be including
the mention of precip in the TAFs for now. Otherwise, like today,
some intermittent late night MVFR ceilings will be possible
followed by VFR conditions the remainder of the day Wednesday. 47
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 78 97 78 96 78 / 30 10 0 10 10
Houston (IAH) 80 96 80 94 80 / 20 10 0 10 10
Galveston (GLS) 82 91 83 89 83 / 10 10 0 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
The Dewpoint is 77°F and heat index over 100°F after sunset. Tomorrow will be even worse. 110°F heat indices and highs in the upper 90s. Stay cool and hydrate.
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