June 2019: Showers/Storms Increasing To End June

[DoctorMu]

GFS is following the 59/69 corridor for now.

[don]

Tomorrow could definitely be an interesting day around here. These "No Name" systems tend to have virtually the same effects as getting a tropical depression. Everyone, please be weather aware because there is the potential for someone to get a significant amount of rain in a short amount of time tomorrow.

[stormlover]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0412&fh=48


Euro looks wet

[srainhoutx]

The Weather Prediction Center just Updated their 3 Day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast. Rainfall totals continue to expand further inland and more areas are in the 5 to 10 inch range.

[srainhoutx]

The WPC also has a Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall for the remainder of today and tonight. Moderate Risk still continues for tomorrow.

[djmike]

Looks like we may see rain sooner than tomorrow...

[Scott747]

Well it may haven't been officially named but I doubt many folks will know the difference. I've already had some nice gusts over 30 and Palacios has had a few near 40.

Legit bands coming onshore before dying out a little as they move further inland. These are associated with the broad nature of the system and might even have a little to do with that impressive vort that came in around Brownsville earlier this morning.

[Cromagnum]

Heavy rain already coming ashore

[srainhoutx]

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0364
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
357 PM EDT Tue Jun 04 2019

Areas affected...Texas Gulf Coast

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 041955Z - 050155Z

Summary...Scattered to numerous thunderstorms associated with
tropical moisture will move onshore the Texas Gulf Coast through
the remainder of the afternoon and into the evening hours.
Downpours may produce hourly totals of 1-2" and cause localized
flash flooding.

Discussion...Slow moving convection developing within an area of
highly anomalous moisture associated with a weak tropical wave
will gradually move onshore through the evening. The latest GPS
TPW blended product shows 2.2 to near 2.4" offshore the southern
Texas Gulf Coast, which is near the daily max for BRO and CRP.
This has been slowly pushing onshore this afternoon.

With convective temperatures being reached and a weak shortwave
moving through in the upper levels, convection has been blossoming
in the outlook area. Area radar and observations show rates
increasing to 0.5-1.0"/hr. This is likely to increase some into
the afternoon. Instability is plenty with MLCAPE of around 2000
J/kg.

Meso models haven't locked onto this activity very well today but
in general suggest scattered to numerous convection should
continue into the early evening. Most keep the bulk of the highest
QPF offshore, but the current radar trends suggest some of this
could continue to drift onshore. While FFG values aren't too low
and antecedent conditions are dry (14-day departures are below 25
percent), if the higher rain rates fall on sensitive areas or
urban locations, then some localized flash flooding could be
possible.

Taylor

ATTN...WFO...BRO...CRP...EWX...HGX...

[unome]

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/buoycams.shtml

there are 3 BuoyCAMs along the Texas coast, but the one off of Freeport isn't working right now, not sure if that's temporary:
42020, 42019 & 42035

get the most recent image by changing the "xxxxx" to the buoy # here: https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/buoycam.php?station=xxxxx

getting a little gusty, but take into account elevation also https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/zoa/mwmap2.php ... =0&limit=1

[srainhoutx]

The WPC has expanded the Moderate Risk for Excessive Rainfall tomorrow to include SW and Southern Louisiana

[srainhoutx]

Tuesday afternoon Update from Jeff:

Flash Flood Watch will be in effect from midnight tonight until Thursday morning.

There have been no significant changes in the forecast today as tropical moisture is rapidly spreading into the area with radar showing a large band of showers and thunderstorms now moving inland along the TX coast. Periods of showers and thunderstorms will continue for the next 24-36 hours with brief heavy…at times excessive…rainfall possible. Storm motions have averaged 15-20mph today toward the north and this general speed should continue and help minimize the expected length of time any one location could see very heavy rainfall. As the upper level trough over the SW US lifts out and across TX on Wednesday and Thursday, this feature will help to squeeze out the deep tropical moisture over the area before shifting eastward Thursday into Friday.

Rainfall Amounts:
Widespread 2-4 inches with isolated amounts of 5-6 inches will be possible over the next 36 hours. Given the highly tropical air mass moving into the region, hourly rainfall rates of 2-3 inches are certainly possible which could cause street flooding. These rates would be most likely in any areas of cell training that would help to prolong the heavy rainfall allowing totals to pile up. It is still uncertain where the heaviest rains may fall as this will be determined by the formation of a low level convergence boundary somewhere over the region. It is possible that this boundary forms near the coast or even offshore and the heaviest rains focus right along the beaches and offshore or this could be farther inland.

WPC maintains the moderate risk for exceeded flash flood guidance over the area on Wednesday.

Hydro:
Round conditions are mostly dry over the area and creeks/bayous running at normal levels. Current expected rainfall amounts would be handled by the creeks and bayous. Greater concern for creek and bayou flooding would be if widespread rainfall totals begin to exceed 4-5 inches in a few hours. Significant rises on area watersheds are certainly possible, but at this time no significant bayou or creek flooding is expected.

Tides:
Increasing onshore flow will help to push seas higher along the coast tonight into Wednesday. This combined with astronomical high tides will produce total water levels from 3.5-4.0 feet (above MLLW) along the Gulf facing beaches. Minor coastal flooding will be possible at the typical low lying areas near the coast that experience flooding along Bolivar and the west end of Galveston Island as well as areas of SE Harris County around Seabrook and Shoreacres.

[Cpv17]

I just hope we can at least get a couple inches out of this. I don’t like the trends today for my area though. Most of the rain looks like it’ll be east of us.

[Cromagnum]

I just hope we can at least get a couple inches out of this. I don’t like the trends today for my area though. Most of the rain looks like it’ll be east of us.

I don't think you are going to have to worry. Be careful what you wish for though.

[Andrew]

I definitely think trends have been closer to the coast but that is almost always the case with these tropical systems. I think 1-3 inches widespread will be common with 4-6 inches closer to the coast. Keep in mind models like the HRRR are especially bad at predicting tropical moisture like this so be careful when using that model in particular. I noticed the Tx tech WRF usually does a better job along with the global models.

[cperk]

Just got a nice little shower here in Richmond.

[don]

The last few runs of the Texas Tech WRF have been consistently showing a wide swath of 4-8+ inches of precipitation mainly along and south and east of the 59 corridor fwiw.

[mckinne63]

Just got a nice little shower here in Richmond.

We had a nice one in Stafford also. It has been pretty windy off and on.

[Andrew]

The last few runs of the Texas Tech WRF have been consistently showing a wide swath of 4-8+ inches of precipitation mainly along and south and east of the 59 corridor fwiw.

Yea I think that is a pretty good bet honestly. We will likely see a pretty sharp gradient over the north half of the CWA besides the isolated regions that have received 2-4 inches over Navasota.

[Texashawk]

Well, that de-escelated quickly...

Think they keep the flood watch for tomorrow?

-Steve