June 2019: Showers/Storms Increasing To End June

[jasons2k]

Thunderstorms firing up near Austin. I would caution that this will probably be an evening event for us and not an afternoon one.

Yeah was just about to post on that. They are a bit to the north and moving E/ENE (NOT ESE/SE) so we need to watch this trend. And any discrete right turners could turn tornadic.

[sau27]

That right moving supercell around bastrop looks nasty. Special sounding from TAMU shows winds veering a little bit more than some of the models were showing. https://twitter.com/TAMUMeteorology/sta ... 52/photo/1
The HRRR is now also bringing a pearl string close to the area by dinner time. Might end up being a little more active around here than I thought. Wondering if they will extend the T-Storm watch north.

[srainhoutx]

HGX added Austin, Brazoria, Ft Bend and Washington Counties to Watch 336 until 10:00 PM

[jasons2k]

Storms north of 290 corridor are fizzling. Not sure why, but they are for whatever reason.

[srainhoutx]

Ping pong ball sized hail with the super cell near Sealy

[srainhoutx]

HGX adds Waller County to Watch 336

[Cpv17]

It’s not too often you see supercells lining up across this region.

[srainhoutx]

Mesoscale Discussion 1009
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0541 PM CDT Thu Jun 06 2019

Areas affected...Central into Southeast TX

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 336...

Valid 062241Z - 070015Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 336
continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for damaging wind, hail, and perhaps a brief
tornado or two will spread southeastward into this evening.

DISCUSSION...At 2230Z, a cluster of intense thunderstorms over
central TX is moving southeastward toward the southwestern Houston
metro area. Other thunderstorms are developing further south in the
vicinity of a surface boundary that has been pushing slowly
northwestward during the day. Very warm and moist conditions are
supporting very strong buoyancy, with MLCAPE of 3000-4000 J/kg in
place per objective mesoanalyses and modified forecast soundings.
Effective shear of 40-50 kt is more than sufficient for storm
organization, with both supercells and upscale-growing segments
possible into this evening.

As these storms spread east-southeastward with time, damaging wind
will likely become the primary threat, given the very warm/moist
boundary layer and steep low-level lapse rates downstream of ongoing
convection, with some cold pool generation/propagation possible as
upscale growth occurs. Warm temperatures aloft will tend to limit a
more substantial hail threat, though any supercell structures will
remain capable of producing at least marginally severe hail. While
low-level flow is weak, a brief tornado or two will also be possible
with any supercell in the vicinity of the modified sea breeze
boundary where surface winds are locally backed.

..Dean.. 06/06/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...BRO...

[Texaspirate11]

Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Northeastern Colorado County in southeastern Texas...
Northeastern Wharton County in southeastern Texas...
Southeastern Austin County in southeastern Texas...
Western Fort Bend County in southeastern Texas...
Southern Waller County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 630 PM CDT.

* At 542 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 8 miles northeast
of Eagle Lake, moving east at 45 mph. Law enforcement has reported
trees down near Columbus.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. This storm has
had a history of producing damaging winds.

[srainhoutx]

Folks in Richmond/Rosenberg need to take that super cell seriously. Winds gusting to 60-65 MPH reported as well as large damaging hail

[srainhoutx]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
559 PM CDT THU JUN 6 2019

WALLER TX-INLAND HARRIS TX-
559 PM CDT THU JUN 6 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL WALLER AND NORTHWESTERN
HARRIS COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM CDT...

AT 558 PM CDT, TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM NEAR WALLER, OR 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PRAIRIE VIEW,
MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN
MONAVILLE.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
TOMBALL, JERSEY VILLAGE, SPRING BRANCH NORTH, NORTHEASTERN ADDICKS
PARK TEN, HOCKLEY, WALLER, PINE ISLAND, WILLOWBROOK, CYPRESS, HOOKS
AIRPORT, WESTBRANCH AND CARVERDALE.

[Cpv17]

Looks like I’m about to get clobbered here in central Wharton County.

[srainhoutx]

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0382
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
701 PM EDT Thu Jun 06 2019

Areas affected...Middle Texas Coast

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 062300Z - 070300Z

SUMMARY...Sensitive ground conditions and highly efficient/quick
bursts of heavy rainfall pose possible flash flooding conditions
in Middle Texas Coast/Houston Metro.

DISCUSSION...GOES-16 Visible imagery denotes two lines of
convection starting to rapidly develop across Southeastern TX.
One generally parallel to I-10 and a second with more scattered
cells along the sea-breeze generally parallel to the coast about
60 miles inland. Strong instability with MLCAPEs to 3000-3500
J/kg in a localized pool of saturated lower profiles (85H Tds near
18C and TPWS near 2") will support very strong, broad downdrafts
capable of torrential downpours with hourly rates of 3"/hr
possible. Cold pools/outflows already generated due to proximity
to the edge of the EML (per GOES 7.3 WV channel) will aid in
reducing localized totals toward 2-2.5"/hr given 15-20kt eastward
propagation vectors with 15kts rear(SW) inflow. As cells head
southeastward, cell mergers becoming increasingly possible given
spreading of the 500-1000mb thickness fields. This may also
support upscale growth into a much larger complex.

The concern for flash flooding is mostly related to the potential
for repeat cells and redevelopment upstream as the shortwave speed
max passes eastward into LA after 01z but also the highly
saturated grounds that saw over 10-15" quite recently. National
Water Model 40cm saturation field ratios are at 1 over a large
area of the Middle TX Coast region and into the Houston Metro
(particuarly W and S suburbs/exurbs). Rainfall totals of 2-4" are
possible through the evening hours with maybe an isolated 5"
maxima though over a smaller domain/scattered nature flash
flooding is considered possible.

Gallina

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...HGX...

[Rip76]

May, I say may pass Downtown to the South.

[mckinne63]

It is getting really dark here in Stafford, I am hearing thunder in the distance.

[jasons2k]

Yeah, mostly along and south of I-10 now. I wanted a bit more rain but these storms are pretty bad. Don’t need the hail so I will gladly pass on these and wait for tropical sea-breeze storms.

[jasons2k]

Also to note, a band of sprinkles from the dying line north of I-10 is passing through with no gust front or outflow boundary. It’s a thick, gray overcast with drizzle and still 90 degrees and dead calm winds.

[davidiowx]

No hail here in Richmond, but the brunt of that cell is passing about a mile or so south of me. VERYwindy with some 40+ gust and heavy rain.

[mckinne63]

Looking at the radar I think Stafford is fixing to get hammered. Big red line. Hoping that red hits just a bit south of us.

[mckinne63]

Looks like it is all pushing south. We had some rain, few sprinkles for about 10 minutes. Can still hear the thunder in the distance.