June 2019: Showers/Storms Increasing To End June

[unome]

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1150.html

Mesoscale Discussion 1150
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1024 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019

Areas affected...portions of central...northeast...and east
TX...northwest LA

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely

Valid 200324Z - 200400Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...A new severe thunderstorm watch will likely be needed over
central into eastern portions of TX. Severe gusts (60-70mph) are
the primary hazard.

DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows a reservoir of middle-upper 70s
dewpoints to the southeast of ongoing severe storms over northeast
TX and a linear cluster near Waco. The establishment of a
well-defined cold pool and the very unstable airmass downstream of
the Waco linear cluster, will favor storm longevity and the risk for
scattered severe gusts (60-70mph) as storms move into east
TX/western LA late this evening into the overnight.

..Smith/Edwards.. 06/20/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...

[unome]

keep an eye out

https://twitter.com/NWSSevereTstorm/sta ... 1761774592

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/af ... 1906200347

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1047 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Very short term...line of strong to severe storms with a wind
threat to the northwest will be moving toward and into the
northwest counties between 1115 pm and 130 am. Main threat should
be gusty winds in excess of 30 mph and but hail may be possible
in the stronger storms.

[DoctorMu]

We have a pig trough of water vapor. Dewpoint still hovering at 77°F to feed the incoming line of storms. It should blow through before midnight.

[Cromagnum]

That line is hauling ***.

[DoctorMu]

That line is hauling ***.

> 40 mph per radar. Should be some impressive straight line winds.

[DoctorMu]

Message: NOAA-NWS-ALERTS-TX125CFEBC4248.SpecialWeatherStatement.125CFEBC6250TX.HGXSPSHGX.45d679eaf081f2a2946614607f6dcad1 from w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov
Sent: 23:18 CDT on 06-19-2019
Effective: 09:00 CDT on 06-20-2019
Expires: 00:00 CDT on 06-20-2019
Event: Special Weather Statement
Alert:
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BURLESON...WESTERN GRIMES...
CENTRAL WASHINGTON...BRAZOS...WEST CENTRAL HOUSTON...MADISON AND
NORTHWESTERN WALKER COUNTIES UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT...

At 1117 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 9 miles north of Franklin to near Hearne to 6
miles southwest of Rockdale. Movement was southeast at 40 mph.
Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with these storms.
Locations impacted include...
College Station, Bryan, Navasota, Madisonville, Caldwell, Somerville,
Snook, Bedias, Kurten, Burton, Wixon Valley, Millican, Lake
Somerville Dam, Kyle Field, Lake Somerville State Park & Trailway,
Normangee, Iola, Carmine, Lyons and North Zulch.
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 600 AM CDT for
southeastern Texas.
Instructions:
Target Area:
Brazos
Burleson
Grimes
Houston
Madison
Washington

[DoctorMu]

Impressive wind gusts over 40 mph. 41 mph recorded at CLL so far. Rain should begin within 5 minutes.

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/zoa/getobext.php?sid=KCLL

[DoctorMu]

make that 44 mph

[Katdaddy]

Another hot and humid SE TX day with a Heat Advisory in effect.

...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

* EVENT...Hotter weather on tap for Thursday. Heat indices will climb very quickly Thursday morning quickly surpassing 100 and by the afternoon hours 106 to 111 degree heat index readings will be common.

* TIMING...9 am near the coast quickly expanding inland and lasting through 7 pm. Overnight temperatures will only fall into the upper 70s to lower 80s both tonight and Thursday night.

* IMPACT...Dangerous heat possible Thursday with little recovery overnight. Avoid over exposure as this could lead to heat exhaustion or even heat stroke.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take extra precautions if you work or spend time outside. When possible...reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat stroke. Wear light weight and loose fitting clothing when possible and drink plenty of water.

To reduce risk during outdoor work...the Occupational Safety and Health Administration recommends scheduling frequent rest breaks in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone overcome by heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location. Heat stroke is an emergency - call 911.

Each year...a number of fatalities occur nationwide due to
children accidentally being left in vehicles during the summer months. In the past dozen years...500 children have died due to hyperthermia after being left in or gaining access to cars. Never leave children or pets unattended in a vehicle not even for a minute. Remember...beat the heat...check the backseat.

[tireman4]

XUS64 KHGX 201126
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
626 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2019

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...

Lone TSRA NW of KUTS continues to weaken as it approaches. Still
could be some gusty winds with the storms as they pass by KUTS and
likely just be showers near KCXO if anything. Otherwise rest of
the terminals can expect mainly VFR ceilings with southerly winds
that will increase later this morning. There could be some gusts
in the 20-25kt gust range. Winds stay around 10kts into the
overnight with possibly some MVFR ceilings developing after 06Z
into Friday morning.

Overpeck

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 410 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2019/...

.DISCUSSION...

Abnormally - and potentially dangerous - heat is expected today
across Southeast Texas, and a heat advisory is in effect for much
of today. While today looks to be the peak day as far as extreme
heat is concerned, temperatures and the heat index will back down
only slowly over the next couple of days, and heat safety will
have to remain at the forefront of everyone`s mind if plans late
this week require much time outside.

Sunday and Monday look to have some better chances of rain and
storms, but that short stretch looks to be followed by another
trend towards hotter and drier weather later next week.
Fortunately, at this time, next week`s heat does not appear to be
as extreme as our current hot stretch.


.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Overnight MCS that began in central Texas has produced an outflow
that has made it all the way to the Gulf coast. Overall rain cooled
air has pushed as far south as Tomball where the dewpoint dropped
from the upper 70s to the upper 60s. I guess if that`s the case rain
cooled needs to be in quotes as upper 60s dewpoints are still plenty
moist. Short wave trough axis has pushed into the Ozarks based on
water vapor imagery and main jet stream has become oriented over
central Texas through western Louisiana into the Mid-South this
morning. Satellite imagery shows some pretty think cirrus associated
with the jet.

The main concern today will be the heat as apparent temperatures
should reach 105F to 110F for much of the area with values higher
than 108F being common. Heat advisory has been issued for the area
in anticipation of these higher heat index values. There are a
couple of factors that could keep parts of the area from reaching
advisory criteria, but the general thinking is that the atmosphere
will overcome these factors. First there has been some outflow that
has dropped dewpoints into the upper 60s. However dewpoints south of
I-10 are still in the upper 70s and winds should increase above 10
mph for much of the area. Second, the winds may provide some minor
relief but they will also advect moisture back into the area
allowing for the atmosphere to become moist/unstable again this
afternoon. Finally high clouds could be enough to limit day time
heating. But high temperatures could still reach the upper 90s in
some areas as 850mb temperatures around 22C to 24C advect into the
region. While there will also be some mixing during the day,
dewpoints still should remain in the mid/upper 70s and temperatures
in the mid/upper 90s. This all points to heat index values mentioned
above. This does not account for meso/micro scale affects like the
sea/bay breeze that can increase moisture while not lowering
temperatures much behind the boundary. This was a big reason why
Houston IAH reached a heat index around 112F while other areas did
not. The thinking today is that the heat/humidity will be more
widespread requiring the advisory.

Overpeck


.SHORT TERM [Friday]...

Upper level ridging should be stronger on Friday as the center of
the ridge builds over the Gulf and another trough develops over the
Rockies. The heat will still be a problem but may not be to advisory
levels. High temperatures could be a couple degrees lower as winds
become more southerly and 850mb temps are expected to be lower
around 20C to 22C. Winds are also expected to be stronger than
today. This means heat index values should be lower as well but
still high enough to monitor for an advisory.

Overpeck


.LONG TERM [Friday Night Through Thursday]...

By Saturday, the midlevel ridge looks to have built fairly well,
with a ridge axis running roughly through New Orleans and Memphis.
This will give us 500 mb heights that are comparable to or even
exceed those from the peak heat on Thursday. Still, with more
moist lower levels and slightly cooler 850 temps, I continue to be
confident that we`ll see temperatures and heat indices back down
a little bit to more seasonable levels. This is, of course, still
pretty hot, but will be more the typical level of heat that we are
becoming more acclimated to, now that it`s summer.

Similarly, Saturday may see a small smattering of showers and
storms following the diurnal pattern, but I`d expect most to stay
dry. That looks more likely to change Sunday and/or Monday as a
northern stream trough tries to dent our ridging while a surface
low moves to the Great Lakes. That low will try to push a cold
front into Texas as it ejects eastward. Of course, it will fail in
doing that, but there`s pretty strong consensus in the guidance
that we`ll get a convective system to go up in North Texas, then
either push southeastward into our area, or at least have its
outflow spark new convection for us. This seems pretty reasonable,
so I largely stick with the consensus blend for PoPs here, but
do temper it a little bit. I`m a little hesitant to go to likely
PoPs at Days 4/5 in a convective situation like this, and my
recipe did make liberal use of the NBM, which has a pretty well
known wet bias at range. Because of these factors, I capped things
in chance for now. However, if the consensus for this scenario
remains strong as we draw closer, I see no reason why the PoPs
shouldn`t drift up to reflect that over time.

Meanwhile, after that mess works itself out, we look for ridging
aloft to drift westward, and eventually merge with a rebuilding
upper ridge over the western states. Since this should give us
some good time right under peak ridge and likely maximum
subsidence, I take forecast highs above the guidance consensus and
shoot for the upper end of the envelope. This ridging still
doesn`t look terribly strong for the time of year, and the
guidance does not show the same downsloping potential that has
added to our worry for heat today. Thus, I`m not going to get
carried away with overshooting the consensus. The goal is mainly
to show a trend for warmer and drier weather for the middle of the
next week, which I have more confidence in than any specific
numbers for high temps.


.MARINE...

Winds are beginning to pick up on the Gulf as the synoptic
pressure gradient tightens. A SCEC is in place until Friday
morning for now, with a strong emphasis on the "for now" portion
of that phrase. This weekend looks to see SCEC conditions become
relatively common, and there are stretches where a small craft
advisory may be needed. Though winds may become modestly weaker
the deeper we go into next week, whether or not that actually
occurs will be highly dependent on the evolution of a Gulf high
pressure center.

Of course, with persistent moderate to strong onshore winds, we
should expect seas and tides to remain elevated through at least
the next several days.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 98 78 95 78 94 / 20 0 10 10 20
Houston (IAH) 97 80 94 80 93 / 10 0 10 10 20
Galveston (GLS) 91 83 89 83 89 / 10 0 10 10 20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for the following
zones: Austin...Brazoria
Islands...Brazos...Burleson...Chambers...Coastal
Brazoria...Coastal Galveston...Coastal Harris...Coastal
Jackson...Coastal Matagorda...Colorado...Fort
Bend...Galveston Island and Bolivar
Peninsula...Grimes...Houston...Inland Brazoria...Inland
Galveston...Inland Harris...Inland Jackson...Inland
Matagorda...Madison...Matagorda
Islands...Montgomery...Northern Liberty...Polk...San
Jacinto...Southern
Liberty...Trinity...Walker...Waller...Washington...Wharton.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION through Friday morning for
the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from
High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport
to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from
High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

DISCUSSION...
NEAR TERM...Overpeck
SHORT TERM...Luchs
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...Overpeck

[DoctorMu]

Dewpoint of 79°F. Highest I can remember in College Station.

Heat Index topped 110°F. The Big Suck. Not quite 1995 Chicago nasty. Hope everyone can find somewhere cool tonight, particularly those in need or without A/C at home.

[Katdaddy]

Another hot and humid SE TX day.

[tireman4]

XUS64 KHGX 211135
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
635 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2019

.AVIATION...
Periods of MVFR decks this morning will lift out by late morning
to mainly various high overcast this afternoon. Moderate
southerly winds with frequent daytime gusts to or slightly over
20 knots. A return to prevailing MVFR ceilings past midnight
Saturday morning. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2019/

DISCUSSION...

- Heat Advisory Today - Heat index values ranging 105 to 110
across the area with most areas near or above 108 for a couple
hours this afternoon.

- We are not anticipating a heat advisory for Saturday but one may
be needed. High temperatures should be a degree or two lower but not
much difference from today`s or Thursday`s conditions.

- Sunday Through Tuesday - best chances of showers and
thunderstorms. Surge of moisture from the Gulf along with a
short wave trough passing through the Plains will provide the
opportunity for a couple rounds of storms.

SHORT TERM [Today Through Saturday]...

The first day of astronomical summer will remain hot and humid with
maximum afternoon heat indices in the 106 to 109 F range. Thus, a
Heat Advisory will be in effect once again today. Upper ridging
centered over the eastern Gulf will subtly expand westward into the
region through the day. This will produce partially cloudy, onshore
breezy and muggy conditions that will be very similar to yesterday`s
conditions. Saturday morning`s minimum temperatures will only fall
to around 80 F, once again threatening (near coastal) high minimum
temperature records. A stout onshore wind and near 80 F dew points
will likely allow GLS to tie or break another record high minimum
temperature today.

A developing Great Basin upper trough on Saturday will lower western
Texas surface pressures and maintain the tight onshore pressure
gradient, and ultimately, moderate onshore flow. The first full day
of the summer season will again be very hot and humid. A slightly
drier air mass advecting in off the Gulf may allow for a slight
down tick in afternoon dew points. This may regulate maximum heat
indices to just under Heat Advisory criteria, between 104 and 107F.
A strengthened low level jet, along with the passage of some very
weak disturbances, could spark off isolated heat-of-the-day
inland showers and thunderstorms. 31

LONG TERM [Sunday Through Friday]...

After a hot start to the weekend, temperatures should be somewhat
lower Sunday and more so to start the work week. This is mainly
due to an increase in shower and thunderstorm activity for the
area along with more cloud cover. By Sunday, the upper level ridge
should move back over the central Gulf. A strong trough should
move out of the central Rockies into the Plains. Stronger large
scale lift should remain well north of the area, but there will be
a decent 30kt LLJ to develop off the Gulf. This will allow for
precipitable water values to increase over 2 inches. This amount
of moisture is still below the 90th percentile of climo for this
time of year, but still high enough to take notice with above
normal integrated moisture transport. Forecast goes with rain
chances closer to 50 percent for areas along and east of I-45
including Houston. The ECMWF/CMC are quite aggressive with
rainfall amounts while GFS/NAM are tempered. Given the heating
and increase in moisture, there should be favorable conditions for
scattered activity. It is too soon to really gage heavy rainfall
potential or potential rain rates, but suspect there could be an
isolated storm that could drop an inch of rain in an hour or less.

Sunday night into Monday conditions get more favorable for storms
as high moisture remains over the region. Synoptic models have a
pretty good signal for a line of storms forming in central or
north Texas that moves into the forecast area through the morning
hours on Monday. Overall pattern with passing trough axis and
built up instability suggests a linear convective system moving
into the region. We will need to monitor for damaging wind gusts
at this point with the potential for a line of severe convection.
SPC has marginal risk on day 3 outlook for its Sunday night time
frame (outlook ends at 7AM Monday) which would be when this line
of storms moves into the area. Despite being overnight, there will
still be 2000-3000 J/kg of CAPE and deep layer shear will be
strong enough to support linear convection but decreases from
north to south. Corfidi vectors support a slow storm motion from
north Texas into SE Texas through the overnight. This storm motion
will also be normal to the low level shear so perhaps may need to
watch for QLCS to develop with a mesovortex.

Storms should be decaying late Monday morning as the linear system
moves south so we will keep some higher thunderstorm chances
going for the rest of the day Monday. Most of this activity will
now be mesoscale driven with outflow boundary interactions. The
problem will be a continued 30 knot LLJ that will maintain high
moisture across the area for storms to use. Precipitable water
values will still be around 2 inches. Eventually this activity
gusts out and decays by Tuesday ending thunderstorm chances.

Upper level ridging does develop over the area but more so
centered over the southern Rockies into west Texas. We should have
hot conditions again Wednesday and Thursday with no rain chances
but the pattern is now allowing an inverted trough to move into
the area from the east. GFS and ECMWF are showing a similar
pattern with this trough developing for the end of next week and
could bring rain chances back into the forecast. Overpeck

MARINE...

Strong southerly winds are expected to continue through the
weekend. This means small craft exercise caution and advisories
will be needed through the weekend. For now SCEC are in effect for
the bays and near shore waters through Saturday. Advisory goes
into effect for the offshore waters tonight through Saturday.
These conditions may persist into Sunday and Monday but then
decrease into Tuesday. Like yesterday, rip currents may also be a
problem with the strong winds for Gulf facing beaches through the
weekend.

31/Overpeck

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 94 79 94 78 93 / 10 10 20 10 40
Houston (IAH) 95 80 94 80 92 / 10 10 30 10 50
Galveston (GLS) 92 83 91 83 89 / 10 10 20 10 40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for the following
zones: Austin...Brazoria Islands...Brazos...Burleson...
Chambers...Coastal Brazoria...Coastal Galveston...Coastal
Harris...Coastal Jackson...Coastal Matagorda...Colorado...
Fort Bend...Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula...
Grimes...Houston...Inland Brazoria...Inland Galveston...
Inland Harris...Inland Jackson...Inland Matagorda...
Madison...Matagorda Islands...Montgomery...Northern
Liberty...Polk...San Jacinto...Southern Liberty...Trinity...
Walker...Waller...Washington...Wharton.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION through Saturday evening for
the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from
High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...
Matagorda Bay.

Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM CDT Saturday for the
following zones: Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship
Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to
Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION through late tonight for the
following zones: Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship
Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to
Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

[srainhoutx]

Happy Summer Solstice! The bad news is we have another day of Heat Advisories. The good news is the days start getting a few seconds shorter and rain chances enter the forecast Sunday through next Tuesday. A deep Western trough with its cold air aloft as well as some deeper Gulf moisture combine with embedded upper air disturbances allowing for Convective complexes to develop and approach our area Sunday afternoon, increasing in areal coverage on Monday. Clouds and rain lower our temperatures to near normal.

Next Wednesday and Thursday look hot again, but only briefly. The Global ECMWF and GFS computer models indicate and inverted trough moves into our area from the East as we end June and begin July. Rain chances look to increase with almost daily chances of rain the last weekend of June. It's time for a July Topic as well, Independence Day will be here before we know it and folks are wondering if weather worries may impact their 4th of July Celebration plans!

[BlueJay]

Hello Summer 2019!

[Cpv17]

Pure fantasy land, but interesting to look at.

[Ptarmigan]

Pure fantasy land, but interesting to look at.

That looks like a tropical system making landfall.

[srainhoutx]

Pure fantasy land, but interesting to look at.

That looks like a tropical system making landfall.

Actually, the GFS suggests a stationary inverted trough established across our Region for a little over a week. That said there is some very deep tropical moisture depicted surging into Texas as well as some moisture from the Eastern Pacific associated with a couple of tropical systems organizing and moving generally WNW. There are indications of a vigorous Convectively Coupled Kelvin Wave spreading across the Eastern Pacific as June ends and possibly entering the Western Atlantic Basin as July begins. We will watch these features carefully in the week ahead.

[Ptarmigan]

Pure fantasy land, but interesting to look at.

That looks like a tropical system making landfall.

Actually, the GFS suggests a stationary inverted trough established across our Region for a little over a week. That said there is some very deep tropical moisture depicted surging into Texas as well as some moisture from the Eastern Pacific associated with a couple of tropical systems organizing and moving generally WNW. There are indications of a vigorous Convectively Coupled Kelvin Wave spreading across the Eastern Pacific as June ends and possibly entering the Western Atlantic Basin as July begins. We will watch these features carefully in the week ahead.

That should be interesting. The forecast model is 16 days ahead, so anything can happen.

[jasons2k]

Yesterday we drove to Crestview, Fl for the first leg of our trip. It was a hazy brown the entire trip. Not sure if it’s African dust or Mexican smoke (it’s a brown haze so I’m thinking dust) but whatever it is, it is thick and widespread all along the I-10 corridor. I hope it rains back at home.