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US #Drought Monitor 5 30 19: Drought contracted in Oregon, Wyoming and central Plains, but expanded in northern Rockies, Texas, Tennessee Valley and Southeast. In Lower 48, 3.3% of area is experiencing drought. https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu

Evaporative Demand Drought Index (EDDI)

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/eddi/

What is EDDI?

The Evaporative Demand Drought Index (EDDI) is an experimental drought monitoring and early warning guidance tool. It examines how anomalous the atmospheric evaporative demand (E0; also known as "the thirst of the atmosphere") is for a given location and across a time period of interest. EDDI is multi-scalar, meaning that this period—or "timescale"—can vary to capture drying dynamics that themselves operate at different timescales; we generate EDDI at 1-week through 12-month timescales.

This webpage offers a frequently updated assessment of current conditions across CONUS, southern parts of Canada, and northern parts of Mexico; a tool to generate historical time series of EDDI for a user-selected region; introductions to the EDDI team; and a list of resources for users to explore EDDI and its applications further.
Why use EDDI?

EDDI can offer early warning of agricultural drought, hydrologic drought, and fire-weather risk by providing near-real-time information on the emergence or persistence of anomalous evaporative demand in a region. A particular strength of EDDI is in capturing the precursor signals of water stress at weekly to monthly timescales, which makes EDDI a strong tool for preparedness for both flash droughts and ongoing droughts.
How often is EDDI updated?

Currently, EDDI is generated daily—though with a 5-day lag-time—by analyzing a near-real-time atmospheric dataset. This lag-time results from the procedures to quality control the meteorological data used to estimate evaporative demand. There is also an ongoing effort to forecast EDDI based on seasonal climate-forecast information.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1015 AM CDT Thu May 30 2019

.UPDATE...
Morning ragged line of convection is waning as outflow works its
way south of downtown Houston at the bottom of the 9 AM hour.
Expecting this outflow boundary to hang up somewhere near the
coast through the day. CAMs are keeping a surface weakness "slash"
boundary lingering in the I-10 and points south vicinity through
the day. Satellite derived 1.7 inch pwats with a forecast
convective temperature of 90 F has moderate to high end chances
for the redevelopment of southern third CWA afternoon scattered
showers with isolated storms. Maximum temperatures will reach the
upper 80s with a few low 90 F spots today. Heat indices will
likely achieve the upper 90s this afternoon across the southern
half of the forecast area. Similar overnight conditions with a
general southeast breeze becoming more variable near sunrise. With
little change in this moist resident 1.7 to near 2.0 inch
pwat/greater than 70% lower 850mb %RH air mass, expect partially
to mostly cloudy skies going through tomorrow. A western shortwave
disturbance and subsequent area of Central Texas convection moving
through in the near zonal flow will pass across tomorrow afternoon.
This has kept likely daytime Friday POPS in place for this update.
31

Looks like the outflow boundary is starting to hang-up and stall. The sun is coming out. Could get interesting this afternoon...

AHHHH we had a great little downpour...very appreciated by my grass & garden this morning!

Cool front just pushed through NW Harris County.

Man the heat out there today is no joke. Feels like the hottest day of the year so far imo.

As feared, not a single drop at my house and then the line reformed with vigor to the E/SE. Are we done for the day or another shot tonight? Looking forward to dragging the water hose around all weekend again as it is...

Cromagnum wrote: ↑Thu May 30, 2019 12:44 pm As feared, not a single drop at my house and then the line reformed with vigor to the E/SE. Are we done for the day or another shot tonight? Looking forward to dragging the water hose around all weekend again as it is...

Not all hope is lost for today... or tomorrow for that matter. With a dying boundary situated over us leaving outflow boundaries in place over the region and a decently unstable airmass, additional storm development is possible later this afternoon into the evening. Any storms that do develop will have the potential to drop copious amount of rain in a short time due to little steering currents.
With the heat of the day tomorrow, once reach our convective temperature, more storms are likely to form along any remaining boundaries that reside overnight. It is that time of the year where there may be a 20-30% rain chance, but if you fall under the lone storm-or-two that develops, you'll have a happy lawn.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
152 PM CDT Thu May 30 2019

TXZ227-237-238-301915-
Inland Brazoria TX-Inland Galveston TX-Fort Bend TX-
152 PM CDT Thu May 30 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN GALVESTON...EASTERN
FORT BEND AND NORTH CENTRAL BRAZORIA COUNTIES UNTIL 215 PM CDT...

At 151 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
western Manvel, moving northeast at 5 to 10 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Southwestern Pearland, Alvin, Manvel, Fresno, Arcola, Iowa Colony and
eastern Sienna Plantation.

Good soaking going on for those under the thunderstorms that erupted along the frontal boundary. Several HCFCD rain gauges reporting 1 inch in 15 minutes.

My temp took off like a rocket after it cleared - up to 90 now.

* Flood Advisory for...
Northwestern Galveston County in southeastern Texas...
East central Fort Bend County in southeastern Texas...
North central Brazoria County in southeastern Texas...
Southeastern Harris County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 330 PM CDT.

* At 228 PM CDT, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated
heavy rain due to thunderstorms. This will cause minor flooding in
the advisory area. Up to one inch of rain has already fallen
within the advisory area within a short period of time.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Pasadena, Pearland, northwestern Baytown, southeastern Missouri
City, northwestern Friendswood, Deer Park, Alvin, South Houston,
Galena Park, Jacinto City, Manvel, Cloverleaf, Greater Hobby Area,
Channelview, Fresno, South Belt / Ellington, Highlands,
northwestern Clear Lake, Arcola and Brookside Village.

Flood Statement

Looks like we got some that time. About to catch it hard down in Lake Jackson area too

Models aren’t very enthusiastic about rain chances over the next week or two.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
532 PM CDT Thu May 30 2019

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
Southwestern Wharton County in southeastern Texas...
North central Jackson County in south central Texas...

* Until 730 PM CDT.

* At 531 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing
heavy rain across the warned area. Radar has estimated 3 to 5
inches of rain have fallen in the past hour. Flash flooding is
expected to begin shortly.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Cordele and Louise.

Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are possible in the
warned area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

A Flash Flood Warning means that flooding is imminent or occurring.
If you are in the warned area move to higher ground immediately.
Residents living along streams and creeks should take immediate
precautions to protect life and property.

Katdaddy wrote: ↑Thu May 30, 2019 6:26 pm BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
532 PM CDT Thu May 30 2019

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
Southwestern Wharton County in southeastern Texas...
North central Jackson County in south central Texas...

* Until 730 PM CDT.

* At 531 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing
heavy rain across the warned area. Radar has estimated 3 to 5
inches of rain have fallen in the past hour. Flash flooding is
expected to begin shortly.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Cordele and Louise.

Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are possible in the
warned area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

A Flash Flood Warning means that flooding is imminent or occurring.
If you are in the warned area move to higher ground immediately.
Residents living along streams and creeks should take immediate
precautions to protect life and property.

That area has gotten hammered. 5-7” in spots. I’m about 15-20 miles east of there and all we got here was enough to settle the dust. Big thunder and lightning show to my west right now.

Line of storms below I-10 drifting N and W now, expanding. Other showers moving ENE.

We had just 0.25 in of rain last night. Could use another inch or two.

The NOAA forecast argues for diminishing showers.

Hmmmmmm... They seem to be hold together OK, while more impulses enter the area from the SW.