MAY 2019: Wednesday Storm Complex/Scattered Showers To End May

[tireman4]

From HGX NWS Skywarn...I do not recall wording like this...maybe the pro mets can chime...

Spotter information regarding activation need or not typically is posted at the end of the Hazardous Weather Outlook issued twice a day, I believe. The Emergency Manager information has been there all week. Nothing at all unusual about that.

K. I knew you knew...LOL... I guess I did not pay attention...LOL

[Texaspirate11]

What I meant is...it stated...

Spotter activation will be needed today.

I have not seen wording like this...using the word WILL as opposed to MAYBE...

They have also put voluntary groups like CERT on alert for this also.

[tireman4]

Humble ISD is closing all of the activities after 6 pm today. They will give an update at 8 pm

[tireman4]

683
FXUS64 KHGX 091724
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1224 PM CDT Thu May 9 2019

.AVIATION...
An outflow boundary over SE TX will eventually phase with an
approaching cold front over North Texas. The two features should
serve as a focus for shra/tsra toward evening and expect
convective initiation between 22-00z along the 59 corridor. Will
start carrying tsra beginning around 22z near SGR and expand
NEward from there. A s/wv will approach later tonight and this
will likely maintain convection over area TAF sites. Have an
extended use of TEMP and Prob30 tonight as this looks like it
could be a prolonged event. Leaned toward a blend of the 14z HRRR,
NAM12 and LAV guidance. 43

[Texaspirate11]

Anyone know what the Euro is saying

Last few Euro runs are broad brushing 4-5 inches across the area with some pockets of 7 ish inches. But keep in mind these global models lack the resolution often needed in these kind of events. Also I heard a great quote from Tim Heller regarding heavy rain events in our area. He said he would take the model averages and then double them for his forecast.

i GOTTA AGREE.....THANKS

[sau27]

I am a little surprised by the amount of sun coming through so far today. With cape already around 5,000 which is very high for this area the sun is only going to charge things up more.

[Texaspirate11]

Its been out all day by the bay ...that made me uncomfortable also sau27

[djmike]

Here it is beaumont! Beginning of a long two days.

[srainhoutx]

LCRA to increase Flood Operations on the Highland Lakes Chain beginning this afternoon

[srainhoutx]

Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued to our West by the Storm Prediction Center

[unome]

https://twitter.com/DisasterPIO/status/ ... 2987714567

Francisco Sanchez
‏Verified account @DisasterPIO

UPDATE | @ReadyHarris will be LIVE at 3:00 PM from @HoustonTranStar with @JudgeHidalgo, @SylvesterTurner, @AdrianGarciaHTX and @JeffLindner1 to discuss potential severe weather expected through this weekend.
.
#HouNews #HouWX #SevereWX

[Cpv17]

The humidity here in Wharton is downright miserable. And winds are almost completely calm.

[srainhoutx]

Latest from HGX...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
248 PM CDT THU MAY 9 2019

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND:

- A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH
7 PM SATURDAY.
- FORECASTED RAINFALL TOTALS ARE STILL ABOUT 4 TO 8 INCHES
WIDESPREAD, WITH ISOLATED 9 TO 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. A LOT OF THIS
RAIN COULD FALL IN A VERY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME WHICH COLD LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING.
- MINOR TO MODERATE RIVER FLOODING IS ONGOING AND IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE. CONDITIONS COULD WORSEN SIGNIFICANTLY DEPENDING ON
WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINS FALL.
- THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THE PRIMARY
WEATHER HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE DAMAGING WINDS, HAIL AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP OFF TO OUR EAST
AND OFF TO OUR WEST, AND IT IS ONLY A MATTER OF TIME UNTIL ACTIVITY
BEGINS TO FILL IN ACROSS OUR AREA. OUR DEVELOPING STORMS WILL HAVE
SOME STRONG/SEVERE POTENTIAL (SLIGHT RISK PER SPC'S DAY 1 SEVERE
WEATHER OUTLOOK) WITH DAMAGING WINDS, HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES
POSSIBLE. DEVELOPING ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO A
POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN EVENT (RAINFALL RATES OF 2 TO 4 INCHES PER
HOUR OR HIGHER POSSIBLE) AS WE HEAD ON INTO THIS EVENING AND ON
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, AND THEN ONCE AGAIN AS WE HEAD ON
INTO A FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY TIME PERIOD. THE
MOVEMENT/PLACEMENT OF A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN OUR AREA
COULD BECOME A PLAYER AS TO WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL SETS UP -
MAYBE MORE CONCENTRATED IN/AROUND THE I-10 CORRIDOR OR MAYBE MORE
CONCENTRATED NEAR/ALONG THE COAST. WE WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW
EVERYTHING EVOLVES. FORECASTED RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE COMMON FOR THIS EVENT, AND SOME LOCATIONS COULD
SEE 9 TO 12 INCHES BEFORE THE HEAVIEST RAINS COME TO AN END SOME
TIME LATE SATURDAY OR EARLY SUNDAY.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN COMBINATION WITH SHORTWAVES, INCREASING LIFT
AND BUILDING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES (>2 INCHES AND GETTING CLOSE
TO 2.5 INCHES) WILL BE VERY SUPPORTIVE OF THE INTENSE RAINFALL RATES,
AND IF ANY OF THE ACTIVITY IS SLOW MOVING OR TRAINS, FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE LIKELY AS LOTS OF AREA GROUNDS REMAIN SATURATED FROM RECENT
RAINS.

RIVER FLOODING (MAINLY MINOR TO MODERATE RIGHT NOW) IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE. IF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL ENDS UP IN/AROUND AREA BASINS,
CREEKS AND BAYOUS, CONDITIONS COULD WORSEN RATHER QUICKLY AND
SIGNIFICANTLY.

THIS COULD BE A MULTI-DAY EVENT, AND EVERY EFFORT SHOULD BE MADE
TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE WEATHER/FORECASTS/WARNINGS AS EVERYTHING
UNFOLDS. 42

[Texaspirate11]

The humidity here in Wharton is downright miserable. And winds are almost completely calm.

same here by the bay - its unbearable....

[sau27]

Surface observation just off the coast is showing an 80 degree dew point. VERY moist air our there

[srainhoutx]

WPC afternoon Updated 48 Hour Quantitative Precipitation Forecast...

[Texaspirate11]

87 degrees feels like 95 dew point at 74 and the sun is out...I got a bad feeling

[sambucol]

87 degrees feels like 95 dew point at 74 and the sun is out...I got a bad feeling

Me too.

[srainhoutx]

WPC afternoon Updated Excessive Rainfall Outlook for tomorrow..

[srainhoutx]

WPC expands Moderate Risk for Excessive Rainfall on Saturday to include most of our SE Texas area...