MAY 2019: Wednesday Storm Complex/Scattered Showers To End May

[redneckweather]

Boundary presently set up shop from Columbus, into northwest Houston and on across into the Lumberton area. Places north of this boundary will get the least amount of rain while places along and south of this boundary could get pounded.

[Cpv17]

From HGX NWS Skywarn...I do not recall wording like this...maybe the pro mets can chime...

What in the world is this all about?

[tireman4]

What I meant is...it stated...

Spotter activation will be needed today.

I have not seen wording like this...using the word WILL as opposed to MAYBE...

[srainhoutx]

From HGX NWS Skywarn...I do not recall wording like this...maybe the pro mets can chime...

Spotter information regarding activation need or not typically is posted at the end of the Hazardous Weather Outlook issued twice a day, I believe. The Emergency Manager information has been there all week. Nothing at all unusual about that.

[srainhoutx]

Keeping an eye to our West...

Mesoscale Discussion 0600
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0101 PM CDT Thu May 09 2019

Areas affected...Portions of south Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 091801Z - 092000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will increase in coverage and severity over
the next few hours posing a threat for large hail, some
significantly severe, and severe wind gusts. A Severe Thunderstorm
Watch may be needed.

DISCUSSION...A combination of lift associated with an exiting upper
jet, an outflow boundary, a weakening cold front, and upslope flow
has contributed to thunderstorm development the last few hours. The
storms southwest of San Antonio have struggled within the relatively
dry/warm 850-700 mb layer, and continue to do so, but the storms in
Real, Kerr, and Bandera counties appear to be much more robust,
likely because of stronger convergence along the outflow
boundary/impinging front and distance north of the warm/dry
mid-level air. Given the large instability (MLCAPE is likely > 3000
J/kg), somewhat steep mid-level lapse rates, and effective shear
35-40 kt, severe to significantly severe hail is possible in the
next few hours with the northern storms, as well as additional
storms that are forming farther south and west.

Later in the afternoon, the capping inversion over the central and
southern portions of the area should weaken with continued heating.
Therefore storms currently forming off the Mexico high terrain will
move east across the Rio Grande into a very unstable airmass and
pose a similar threat for significantly severe hail and severe wind
gusts. Despite the large deep-layer shear and large instability
(MLCAPE 4000-4500 J/kg), relatively weak wind speeds in the lowest
1-2 km are expected to limit the tornado threat throughout the
afternoon. But the increasing threat for severe hail and severe
wind gusts in the next few hours may require a Severe Thunderstorm
Watch by mid afternoon.

..Coniglio/Guyer.. 05/09/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO...SJT...

[sambucol]

Anyone hearing anything about schools possibly closing tomorrow due to the weather?

[don]

The HRRR model is concerning, to say the least, it has consitenly shown training storms setting up along the I-10/59 corridors this evening with isolated spots getting up to 10 inches.

[srainhoutx]

For our neighbors in the Golden Triangle and SW/Southern Louisiana...

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0218
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
229 PM EDT Thu May 09 2019

Areas affected...Southern Louisiana, Far Southeast Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 091825Z - 092215Z

Summary...The threat of flash flooding is increasing across
southern Louisiana and far southeast Texas this afternoon.
Thunderstorms are likely to move slowly and repeatedly affect the
same areas. Hourly rainfall rates to around 2 inches are likely.

Discussion...Radar and satellite trends indicated that an
extensive QLCS was becoming segmented into two main portions: (1)
a forward propagating section across Alabama and southeast
Mississippi, and (2) a stalling segment in southern Louisiana. The
portion of the line over Louisiana should become a more
significant flash flood threat into the afternoon hours as
slow-moving thunderstorms continue to produce very heavy rain
rates over saturated soils. Recent radar VWP trends show veering
925-850mb winds in the past few hours (15-18Z) from KLCH back to
KHGX and THOU. The low-level winds were increasingly feeding into
the western edge of the convective band over Louisiana (a
configuration that favors backbuilding), and becoming aligned with
mid-upper level winds (which may favor training of existing
convection). Therefore, changes in the wind fields appear to be
substantially increasing the chances for focused swaths of heavy
rainfall. Estimated hourly rain rates on MRMS and KLCH/KLIX dual
pol are around 1-2 inches in most of the convective bands, and as
high as 3 inches in the areas of strongest convection. Flash
flooding will become more likely as rain rates of this magnitude
repeatedly affect certain locations for a couple hours, and
localized rainfall totals by 22Z may exceed 6 inches.

The 12Z HREF suggests the area most likely to receive heavy
rainfall between 18-22Z is from far SE TX into SW LA, roughly from
BMT-BTR, just north of I-10. This makes sense as it is near the
western edge of the current band of convection, which will be in
closest proximity to unobstructed low-level inflow in the next few
hours. Some places in this same corridor, especially from Acadia
to Beauregard Parishes, have already received 2-3 inches of rain
today, and another couple hours of additional heavy rain could
lead to more significant flash flooding in southwest Louisiana.

Lamers

ATTN...WFO...HGX...JAN...LCH...LIX...

[Texaspirate11]

Galen ISD is closed

[Texaspirate11]

Anyone hearing anything about schools possibly closing tomorrow due to the weather?

GALENA ISD IS Closed so far
Several Fort Bend schools are still closed due to flooding the other day

[tireman4]

From HGX NWS Skywarn...I do not recall wording like this...maybe the pro mets can chime...

Spotter information regarding activation need or not typically is posted at the end of the Hazardous Weather Outlook issued twice a day, I believe. The Emergency Manager information has been there all week. Nothing at all unusual about that.

K. I knew you knew...LOL... I guess I did not pay attention...LOL

[Texaspirate11]

What I meant is...it stated...

Spotter activation will be needed today.

I have not seen wording like this...using the word WILL as opposed to MAYBE...

They have also put voluntary groups like CERT on alert for this also.

[tireman4]

Humble ISD is closing all of the activities after 6 pm today. They will give an update at 8 pm

[tireman4]

683
FXUS64 KHGX 091724
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1224 PM CDT Thu May 9 2019

.AVIATION...
An outflow boundary over SE TX will eventually phase with an
approaching cold front over North Texas. The two features should
serve as a focus for shra/tsra toward evening and expect
convective initiation between 22-00z along the 59 corridor. Will
start carrying tsra beginning around 22z near SGR and expand
NEward from there. A s/wv will approach later tonight and this
will likely maintain convection over area TAF sites. Have an
extended use of TEMP and Prob30 tonight as this looks like it
could be a prolonged event. Leaned toward a blend of the 14z HRRR,
NAM12 and LAV guidance. 43

[Texaspirate11]

Anyone know what the Euro is saying

Last few Euro runs are broad brushing 4-5 inches across the area with some pockets of 7 ish inches. But keep in mind these global models lack the resolution often needed in these kind of events. Also I heard a great quote from Tim Heller regarding heavy rain events in our area. He said he would take the model averages and then double them for his forecast.

i GOTTA AGREE.....THANKS

[sau27]

I am a little surprised by the amount of sun coming through so far today. With cape already around 5,000 which is very high for this area the sun is only going to charge things up more.

[Texaspirate11]

Its been out all day by the bay ...that made me uncomfortable also sau27

[djmike]

Here it is beaumont! Beginning of a long two days.

[srainhoutx]

LCRA to increase Flood Operations on the Highland Lakes Chain beginning this afternoon

[srainhoutx]

Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued to our West by the Storm Prediction Center