MAY 2019: Wednesday Storm Complex/Scattered Showers To End May

[Ounce]

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 159
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
630 PM CDT THU MAY 9 2019

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 159 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

TXC015-041-051-089-157-185-201-239-291-339-373-407-455-471-473-
477-481-100600-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0159.190509T2330Z-190510T0600Z/

TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

AUSTIN BRAZOS BURLESON
COLORADO FORT BEND GRIMES
HARRIS JACKSON LIBERTY
MONTGOMERY POLK SAN JACINTO
TRINITY WALKER WALLER
WASHINGTON WHARTON
$$


ATTN...WFO...HGX...

[mckinne63]

I think Stafford is hearing the thunder from the huge cell that is just to the north of us. I can't tell which way it is moving, but everytime I look it looks bigger with more red.

[srainhoutx]

Jeff reports 1 inch in 15 minutes Buffalo Bayou @ Diary Ashford near Memorial

[srainhoutx]

Flood threat increasing with storms to our West...

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0222
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
756 PM EDT Thu May 09 2019

Areas affected...South-Central & Southeast Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 092355Z - 100355Z

Summary...Thunderstorms are expanding in coverage near the edge of
the mid-level cap. Hourly rain totals to 2.5" and local amounts
of 5" are possible.

Discussion...Thunderstorms are developing in proximity to a
thermal boundary near the edge of the mid-level cap in
south-central and southeast TX at the present time, which is
approximated by the 9C isotherm at 700 hPa. Other storms are
attempting to cross the US/Mexican border. Dew points are in the
mid to upper 70s within the capped atmosphere to the southeast of
the convection. Inflow is cyclonic at 10-15 knots out of the
southeast per VAD wind profiles. ML CAPE in the region is
impressively high -- 4000-6000 J/kg. Effective bulk shear of
40-50 kts exists in the area per SPC mesoanalyses.

Thunderstorms within such a volatile atmosphere tend to gain high
rain rates quite quickly. The mesoscale guidance -- mainly the
22z HRRR, 18z NAM CONEST, 18z Canadian, and to some degree the 12z
NSSL WRF have some idea of what's ongoing. The guidance shows
local amounts in the 3-7" range through 06z -- believe local
amounts of 5" are possible through 04z. The environment favors
mesocyclones which may choose to periodically train near the edge
of the cap as they move at a right angle to the mean 850-400 hPa
wind. Hourly rain totals to 2.5" should be possible in this
region. Since the area has received 200-400% of the average
rainfall over the past couple weeks, soils should be somewhat
saturated. Flash flooding is a concern.

Roth

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...HGX...

[unome]

Buffalo Bayou at Dairy Ashford - over 2" between 6 & 7 PM today

https://www.harriscountyfws.org/GageDetail/Index/2290

[ccbluewater]

Just starting here at my place in Cypress. Lots of lightning!

[jasons2k]

Well, here we go... good luck everyone! I don’t want to see anyone flood!

[Texaspirate11]

All the cancellations due to impending weather
https://www.khou.com/article/news/local ... 6d7d586746

[mckinne63]

Just starting here at my place in Cypress. Lots of lightning!

Just hearing thunder here in Stafford. No lightning. The current storms are currently to the Northwest of us and appear to be pushing north.

[srainhoutx]

WPC issues rare High Risk for Excessive Rainfall...

[ccbluewater]

Most intense lightning storm I may have ever been in. It is unbelievable, and no rain yet to speak of. Big time Cloud to ground lightning!

[Cpv17]

WPC issues rare High Risk for Excessive Rainfall...

Is there some kind of way we can get a zoomed in graphic of that county by county?

[CRASHWX]

Man you guys nailed it storms building rapidly along 59 to the northeast then along 105 impressive!

[davidiowx]

WPC issues rare High Risk for Excessive Rainfall...

Is there some kind of way we can get a zoomed in graphic of that county by county?

Not really, those graphics highlight an area and include a distance of 25 miles outside of it.

[Cpv17]

Just starting here at my place in Cypress. Lots of lightning!

Just hearing thunder here in Stafford. No lightning. The current storms are currently to the Northwest of us and appear to be pushing north.

It looks like me and you are going to have to wait a while before we get in on anything. Everything is to our north right now. The initial line of storms pushed in from my south, but it split in two different pieces that both went severe and I got caught right in the middle with just some light to moderate rain. Picked up a quarter inch and that was it. Have a severe storm just to my east and just to my west.

[Snowman]

Hi guys I haven't posted in a while, but I've been following this weather forum since I was a kid and even though I recently moved out to California I still love to track the weather with you all. This is one of few places I can count in in the world to be as passionate about the weather as I am haha

Anyway, based on the radar it looks like today may be the northwest side of town's turn to get the worst of it right in the Cypress area where I grew up! Everyone stay safe out there.

[jerryh421]

Any chance these storms make it closer towards downtown?

[mcheer23]

WPC issues rare High Risk for Excessive Rainfall...

Is there some kind of way we can get a zoomed in graphic of that county by county?

Not really, those graphics highlight an area and include a distance of 25 miles outside of it.

Mainly north of 59

[LightningBolt]

Storms are exploding over Liberty County.

[ccbluewater]

Getting small hail here at Fry rd/Tuckerton in Cypress area. Pretty constant pelting on windows now.