MAY 2019: Wednesday Storm Complex/Scattered Showers To End May

[Texaspirate11]

Wow...is this the focus of the flooding ??

[Cpv17]

It’s about to begin folks. Giddy up!

[djmike]

Wow. That latest qpf reminds me too much of harvey. Unbelievable.

[djmike]

Another round for beaumont. Niagra falls it looks like. I will try to post more pics of the flooding happening now in beaumont.

[sau27]

Ive been noticing that the HRRR has kept up a trend of pushing the heaviest totals south of I-10 all afternoon. Also it seems to be delaying the onset closer to the time the central TX MCS gets here. That would limit flooding potential.

[Cpv17]

Ive been noticing that the HRRR has kept up a trend of pushing the heaviest totals south of I-10 all afternoon. Also it seems to be delaying the onset closer to the time the central TX MCS gets here. That would limit flooding potential.

I’m seeing the same thing. Because of that, the HRRR has trended down a bit on totals.

[unome]

it's really beautiful, if it weren't so dangerous

GOES21562019129w9jiuK - Copy (2) - Copy.jpg

[srainhoutx]

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0221
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
608 PM EDT Thu May 09 2019

Areas affected...Southern Louisiana, Southeast Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 092208Z - 100300Z

Summary...Widespread, slow-moving thunderstorms will continue in
southern Louisiana for at least another couple hours. Additional
thunderstorm development is likely in the coastal plain of
southeast Texas, and thunderstorms should become more numerous in
the evening hours. Flash flooding will continue to be likely in
southern Louisiana, and there will be an increasing flash flood
threat in southeast Texas. Localized significant flooding and
inundation cannot be ruled out.

Discussion...Regional radar trends over the past several hours in
southern Louisiana show virtually no movement to the west-east
oriented convective band. There has been a gradual southward drift
into the low-level inflow and region of strong instability, and
recent loops from KLIX and KLCH radars have shown outflow
boundaries beginning to propagate south away from the leading edge
of higher reflectivity. This may be signaling the beginning of a
gradual weakening trend to the ongoing convection. However, these
radars also still show a fairly wide convective band (approx 35mi
wide) with pockets of very heavy rain rates (2-3 in/hr MRMS and
dual pol). Even in the midst of a general diminishing trend, heavy
rain would be likely for another couple hours, and given the
continued slow overall motion of the convective band, considerable
rain rates would be likely to overlap with already saturated
soils. Therefore, flash flooding remains likely over much of
southern Louisiana. An additional hour or two of heavy rain may
make the flooding more widespread and/or significant, with deeper
inundation possible in some areas. This would be particularly true
in urban areas that see sustained thunderstorm activity; for
instance, the CREST hydrologic model is beginning to show a more
significant response in the maximum unit streamflow field in the
vicinity of Baton Rouge, which has seen several inches of rain in
just over an hour.

Further to the west, in southeast Texas, isolated thunderstorm
development has begun along a surface convergence zone situated
just inland from the Gulf of Mexico coastline. Convective coverage
is expected to increase over the next several hours as boundary
layer winds begin to increase and shift to a southeasterly
direction. The increased inflow off the Gulf should lead to an
uptick in PW values closer to 2 inches, and may increase the
low-level convergence along the boundary. These factors are likely
to lead to more convective development as we approach the 00Z time
frame. Recent hi-res model runs generally support this conclusion,
in particular the 18Z NAM Nest and the 21Z experimental Warn On
Forecast System. The HRRR seems to be too suppressed as it reduces
convective coverage and intensity too fast in southern Louisiana
and focuses most of the development well west near the Rio Grande.
In an environment with strong instability and PW values increasing
to near 2 inches, rain rates of 2-3 in/hr will be reasonable.
Given that convection should be focused near the low-level
convergence axis, this may sustain heavy rain at some locations
for a couple hours and lead to localized rainfall maxima in excess
of 3 inches by 04Z. An alternative scenario is that convective
development will remain more isolated through the early evening
(suggested by the HRRR), and increase more in the 06-12Z time
frame. This scenario may be less likely but cannot be ruled out.

Lamers

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...HGX...LCH...LIX...

[davidiowx]

It sure is NASTY feeling outside! Walked out of the office to head home and it hits you right in the face. Going to be a long night and next day or two. Stay safe folks!

[davidiowx]

Radar starting to fill in too. It’s a wait and see situation with lots of radar watching. Models won’t really tell much.

[Texashawk]

Looks like we’re kind of in the middle of all the rain to either side. Are we getting lucky or is this just fools gold?

[Belmer]

Having a chance to get on for a quick moment. I am currently out of the state and will be so through Sunday (attending my brothers college graduation). I'm enjoying quite the contrast in weather with high temps in the 50s and lows potentially dropping into the upper 30s to low 40s.
I'll be monitoring what is going on back at home when I am able to. Hate to say that I hope models get this wrong, because we would like to see them be right to a certain degree so we're able to have better confidence in future situations like this one. However, with the poor recent model performance, especially on Tuesday and much of the grounds already saturated, I do hope models don't produce the rainfall totals I'm seeing projected.

This community plays an important role in getting vital messaging out to those who need it and overall just staying weather aware in times like this. With that said, please use common sense when the weather starts to deteriorate. If you don't have to be out on the roadways, don't! I'm sure much of the local news will be extensively covering the flooding with their reporters out in this.

Hope everyone is able to get through this event unscathed!

[sambucol]

894BD864-B2EA-4E00-8BDC-25CC5B490492.jpeg

How does that road look now? Is it open? Flooded? Thabnks

[srainhoutx]

The Storm Prediction Center issues a Mesoscale Discussion suggesting a Weather Watch may be possible for the Middle and Upper Texas Coast...

Mesoscale Discussion 0604
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0540 PM CDT Thu May 09 2019

Areas affected...Upper Texas Coast vicinity

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 092240Z - 100015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Convection is being monitored across the Middle and Upper
Texas Coast vicinity. A watch may be needed this evening if
confidence increases in an isolated damaging wind and large hail
threat.

DISCUSSION...Isolated showers and thunderstorms have developed in
low level confluence zone ahead of the surface cold front in Harris
and Liberty Counties southward toward Wharton County. Additional
strong to severe storms had developed near the intersection of this
confluence zone and an outflow boundary across far southeast TX,
from Polk to Orange Counties northward to Jasper and Newton
Counties. While this convection is north of the outflow, surface
analysis shows temperatures are in the mid 70s to low 80s with low
70s dewpoints and strong instability, resulting in likely
surface-based storms. The more isolated activity to the southwest is
likewise occurring in a very unstable environment with midlevel
lapse rates around 7-7.5 C/km.

Forcing across the area is generally weak at this moment, but should
increase over the next few hours as the cold front sags southward
and a subtle impulse over northern/central Mexico shifts east across
southern TX and the western Gulf of Mexico. As a result, convection
could increase in intensity across the Middle and Upper Texas Coast
vicinity the next few hours. Latest HRRR, 18z 4km NAM and 20z RAP
guidance all suggest development in this vicinity by around 00z.
Should this scenario play out, locally damaging winds and large hail
will be the main concern. Low level flow is rather weak with latest
KHGX VWP data indicating only 5 kt of sfc-1 km shear. Nevertheless,
backed low level flow in a very moist environment could result in a
brief tornado. Convective trends will continue to be monitored and a
watch is possible at some point this evening.

..Leitman/Hart.. 05/09/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...CRP...EWX...

[Cromagnum]

Lots of cells firing up right on time just south of Rosenberg

[djmike]

894BD864-B2EA-4E00-8BDC-25CC5B490492.jpeg

How does that road look now? Is it open? Flooded? Thabnks

Oh no, its still flooded. Gulf states road in Beaumont. Unless you drive a large high vehicle you wont make it. I HAD to drive thru it unfortunately because where o work its the ONLY road in and out. I left before it got too bad. By now im sure its barricaded.

[Cpv17]

It’s popping here in the Wharton /El Campo area. Storms just started exploding on radar.

[Rip76]

Thunder here in Pearland.

[jabcwb2]

Hi Pros,

Thank you for all you do!
I am confused with all the posts on here.
I realize the weather is going to get treacherous however, I am so confused now, as to where.


Is the line along I 10 and south of same now? Into Sugarland or as far west as Katy?
Thank you!

[mckinne63]

Hearing thunder in Stafford.