February Weather Discussion. Wild Winter Storms?

[Kludge]

When the 'bullseye' is almost on top of your house... life is good.

[srainhoutx]

The prudent thing to do is wait until all the guidance come in. HGX will likely make a call with the early morning AFD.

[Andrew]

[rnmm]

Thank you to all who have responded to my request about our snow chances for my kiddos. We will wait and see and I know that is all we can do! You all have a great night!!

[TexasMetBlake]

You know back in college, my best friend Robin spelt the word ridiculous with an "e" (rediculous). I made the point that "rediculous" was spelt with an I. We had a good laugh. After a hardy chuckle, we now claim that when one of us is being "extra" ridiculous, we say "your being ridiculous with an E for extra."

Ed, your E stands about as big as a highrise and stands for many more things than Extra. Enormously, Erroneous, Extra, and several other words come to mind.

I'm not a moderator, but if your going to make claims, PROVIDE EVIDENCE AND LINKS TO YOUR STATEMENTS!

[Mr. T]

Banned or ignore for saying the GFS shows snow in the air but not sticking between 39ºF and 35ºF?
I have a BS in Petroleum Engineering. Nope, never made a cent on the weather. Do you have a Bachelor of Science in anything? BA in communication from East idaho U?

And this gives you an advantage over forecasting and model analysis, how? I don't care how many pieces of paper you have, this has nothing to do with the weather and what we're dealing with tonight.

Maybe the model is too warm, or precip is heavier, CLL is a close call based on the GFS and may get snow accumulations on snow and grassy surfaces, Waco and Corsicana look quite good. Maybe snow will stick, we'll all be happy.

Snow can stick with surface temperatures in the mid 30s if the precipiation is heavy enough, as it occured on Dec 4th. Even if CLL never reached freezing (certainly possible), several inches of snow is still possible. And, it'll be the sweet spot if a snow band sets up over that area.

[swmmom]

Can't we just all get along and be nice to each other? I know nothing of reading the maps or trends but find weather fascinating, especially types of weather I do not normally get to see. And there is just something about snow that makes most people smile and especially children and especially those of which have never seen it before or gotten to play in it.

Being from Bryan I hope I get a foot of it Tuesday but I also know that when wishing for snow in south central Texas you pretty much believe it is snowing when you see it on the ground.

I appreciate all the people who come on this board and talk about what they are seeing and why and I think it gives me more knowledge. But I really hate to come on here and read what takes up a page of hurtful writing.

I hope everyone lets at least something white on the ground by Wednesday morning!!!!

Swimmom to future Olympian

[txsnowmaker]

Did anyone pick up on the 0z GFS forecast for Monday, March 1? Hours 174-180 seem to indicate a decent amount of frozen precip (snow?) for a good part of the city of Houston.

[don]

I know were dealing with the possible Tuesday event right now but the GFS looks interesting early next week also FWIW

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_168m.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_174m.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_180m.gif

[Ptarmigan]

I notice when it is about to snow, it warms up. The most optimal temperature for snow is between 30 to 35 degrees. We do not need freezing temps to have snow in Houston. The probability of seeing +0.01 or more than a trace of snow is every 5 years on average. So seeing two +0.01" snowfall happens every 25 years.

Above Trace Snowfall
1 Snowfall=Every 5 years
2 Snowfall=Every 25 years
3 Snowfall=Every 125 years
4 Snowfall=Every 625 years

[Mr. T]

Did anyone pick up on the 0z GFS forecast for Monday, March 1? Hours 174-180 seem to indicate a decent amount of frozen precip (snow?) for a good part of the city of Houston.

I was just about to post something about that... In fact, we could even see some sleet pellets with saturday's coastal low if that verifies, with snow possible across extreme northern sections of SE TX.

But, my goodness! Lets get tuesday's system out of the way, first.

[srainhoutx]

Relax guys. Have Fun.

[Ptarmigan]

Did anyone pick up on the 0z GFS forecast for Monday, March 1? Hours 174-180 seem to indicate a decent amount of frozen precip (snow?) for a good part of the city of Houston.

Link? Snow has fallen in March in Houston. The last time it happened was March 10, 1932, which is the latest recorded snowfall in Houston going back to 1895. Now the probability of snow in March probably happens on average about every 120 to 200 years.

[don]

The surface temps and thickness values/precip is the best ive seen so far from the GFS (look at hours 51 & 54)

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sampl ... ?text=KDWH

[Ptarmigan]

Mr. T

I deleted an unfortunate insult directed to a board designated pro-met.



Different poster


Oh, as far as providing links, the AccuWeather GFS data is on a pay per view site. And if you don't believe it shows 2 meter temps between 39 and 35ºF at IAH as the last tenth of an inch falls during a six hour period, well, it does.

The wxmaps,org meteogram for IAH should show the GFS meteogram in a little over an hour. It will show blue bars, and before 180 hours, it has an advantage on AccuWx, 3 hour precip windows. Blue bars are snow. It'll also show surface temps above freezing.

NIU shows that as well...




GFS has been a touch warm or a bit light on precip. Just have to go back to the DFW snow miracle. GFS said it'd snow, never predicted anything close to a foot.

So half full glass and tone down the hostility...

I remember seeing snow in Houston when the temperature was 40. I believe it was in the February 1, 1994 snowfall event. There were two I remember that time.

[Rich]

In case anyone was wondering, here are the definitions of WWA and WSW from the NOAA site

Winter Weather Advisory
This product is issued by the National Weather Service when a low pressure system produces a combination of winter weather (snow, freezing rain, sleet, etc.) that present a hazard, but does not meet warning criteria.

Winter Storm Warning
This product is issued by the National Weather Service when a winter storm is producing or is forecast to produce heavy snow or significant ice accumulations. The criteria for this warning can vary from place to place.

[srainhoutx]

FYI: Snow started at 38 degrees in January 1973. Temps dropped to freezing near the end of the event. Meso formed from DT to the E side dropping as much as 8 inches that accumulated. Snow started round 6:00 AM and became heavy snow by 11-12 Noon and continued until about 3-4 PM IIRC.

[Ptarmigan]

Next weeks potential happy snow?


JB mentioned it.


If you know who JB is, it is usually either love or hate. Probably the most polarizing pro-met on Earth, but he usually has a knack for one week to seasonal trends, based a lot on analogs, and the indices. (I suspect Srain is a JB reader, he posts the NAO and AO and such on a semi-regular basis).


My birthday is March 1st. In my 30 years in Texas (ok, subtract 6 in the Navy), never seen snow on my birthday. It'd make me happier than a little girl getting a pony for Christmas.

[txsnowmaker]

Did anyone pick up on the 0z GFS forecast for Monday, March 1? Hours 174-180 seem to indicate a decent amount of frozen precip (snow?) for a good part of the city of Houston.

Link? Snow has fallen in March in Houston. The last time it happened was March 10, 1932, which is the latest recorded snowfall in Houston going back to 1895. Now the probability of snow in March probably happens on average about every 120 to 200 years.

Sorry about not providing the link--see don's post a few posts above. Also, apologies for throwing this into the mix in this thread, especially since it involves the month of March. Perhaps it is time for a new thread...

[Ptarmigan]

Sorry about not providing the link--see don's post a few posts above. Also, apologies for throwing this into the mix in this thread, especially since it involves the month of March. Perhaps it is time for a new thread...

I looked at it and it showed rain, but no 30 to 35 degree temperatures. Warrants keeping an eye.