February Weather Discussion. Wild Winter Storms?

[Mr. T]

I looked at it and it showed rain, but no 30 to 35 degree temperatures. Warrants keeping an eye.

850s and thicknesses during that time frame support wintry precip, but this is just one run, lol

[Ptarmigan]

FYI: Snow started at 38 degrees in January 1973. Temps dropped to freezing near the end of the event. Meso formed from DT to the E side dropping as much as 8 inches that accumulated. Snow started round 6:00 AM and became heavy snow by 11-12 Noon and continued until about 3-4 PM IIRC.

I looked at records, there were two days of flurries before the big one came. There was a freeze afterwards and than it warmed up quite a bit to upper 70s. Many did not realize it would snow again twice in February. The first February snow started on a day where the high was 65. The second February snow was not that cold.

[Mr. T]

words

Our winter storm warning criteria is 2" of snow.

[srainhoutx]

The key to that thinking Ed is if you were making the call as a State or Local Official, do you chance it? We had a pretty good hint that the wheels are already in motion as contingencies have to be made. Right or wrong, this is a Large commuting Metro Area with many flyovers.

[Andrew]

We are close enough where we need to start watching what is actually happening now. We are almost to the point where we will throw out the models and see how things develop.

[Andrew]

words

Our winter storm warning criteria is 2" of snow.

That's mean

[Rich]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 220523
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1123 PM CST SUN FEB 21 2010

.AVIATION...
NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGE TO THE 6Z TAF PACKAGE THAN WHAT IS
ALREADY ADVERTISED. COOL FRONT MAKING ITS INTO THE METRO AREA
ATTM...WITH LOWER END MVFR CIGS FOLLOWING A FEW HOURS BEHIND.
FRONT SHOULD SCATTER OUT WHAT SEA FOG HAS MOVED INLAND. BIG
QUESTION IS AT THE COAST...WHO IS SOCKED IN GOOD. LATEST TEXT GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE FOG PERSISTING THRU THE DAY AND EVEN INTO MON EVNG.
FCST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW QUITE A BIT OF IMPROVEMENT BY LATE MORNING.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE IMPROVEMENT AFTER THE INITIAL WIND
SHIFT IN A FEW HOURS WHICH IS WHAT WILL BE FCST...BUT CONFIDENCE
IS VERY LOW. OTHERWISE...ANTICIPATE VFR CIGS AREAWIDE (EXCEPT
MAYBE COAST?) BY EARLY AFTN. WINTER WX FCST HEADACHE THEN TAKES
SHAPE FOR TUES... 47

[TexasMetBlake]

WOW! Very cool.

[Ptarmigan]

Our winter storm warning criteria is 2" of snow.

Probability of +2" of snow.
1 >2" Snowfall=Every 19.2 years
2 >2" Snowfall=Every 368.6 years
3 >2" Snowfall=Every 7,077.9 years
4 >2" Snowfall=Every 135,895.5 years

[Andrew]

Our winter storm warning criteria is 2" of snow.

Probability of +2" of snow.
1 >2" Snowfall=Every 19.2 years
2 >2" Snowfall=Every 368.6 years
3 >2" Snowfall=Every 7,077.9 years
4 >2" Snowfall=Every 135,895.5 years

4 >2" Snowfall=Every 135,895.5 years

Ok so I say this is the year for 4>2''. Seems like it is around that time again since the last time it happened.

[Ptarmigan]

4 >2" Snowfall=Every 135,895.5 years

Ok so I say this is the year for 4>2''. Seems like it is around that time again since the last time it happened.

Having 4 +2" snowfall in one winter in Houston has never happened. In fact, I have never heard of 2 +2" snowfall in Houston.

[Kludge]

Wx-Man-Fifty-Seven is sleeping right now. But he will likely scroll back to all these pro-snow posts when he awakes, and will pile a layer of dooky on anyone hoping for a white wednesday morning.

But hasn't tonight been fun without naysayers??? If no Happiness happens, wasn't it fun to frolic in wishcasting heaven tonight, without experts telling us that southeast Texas snow is unlikely?

[TexasMetBlake]

Wx-Man-Fifty-Seven is sleeping right now. But he will likely scroll back to all these pro-snow posts when he awakes, and will pile a layer of dooky on anyone hoping for a white wednesday morning.

But hasn't tonight been fun without naysayers??? If no Happiness happens, wasn't it fun to frolic in wishcasting heaven tonight, without experts telling us that southeast Texas snow is unlikely?

Here Here! And if it doesn't, I'm likely to become an alcoholic.

[Ptarmigan]

The NWS has increased the chance of rain for Tuesday night to 50%.

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... &map.y=152

Overnight: Areas of dense fog before 3am. Otherwise, mostly clear, with a low around 47. North wind around 10 mph.

Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 63. North wind around 10 mph.

Monday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 41. North wind around 10 mph.

Tuesday: Rain likely, mainly after noon. Cloudy, with a high near 48. North wind between 10 and 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Tuesday Night: A chance of rain and snow, mainly before midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 35. North wind between 10 and 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 52.

[Mr. T]

Wx-Man-Fifty-Seven is sleeping right now. But he will likely scroll back to all these pro-snow posts when he awakes, and will pile a layer of dooky on anyone hoping for a white wednesday morning.

But hasn't tonight been fun without naysayers??? If no Happiness happens, wasn't it fun to frolic in wishcasting heaven tonight, without experts telling us that southeast Texas snow is unlikely?

I'm not wishcasting, though. Wxman57 is allowed to have his opinion, as am I. With the data I'm seeing in front of me, I can say we will definitely see some snow. Accumulation? Less likely, but I think we could see a dusting or maybe just above that (up to inch in spots that see the heaviest). Further north, I could see areas like CLL and UTS possibly picking up greater than 4" if the forecasted heavy snow band sets up in that area.

[Mr. T]

The NWS has increased the chance of rain for Tuesday night to 50%.

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... &map.y=152

Overnight: Areas of dense fog before 3am. Otherwise, mostly clear, with a low around 47. North wind around 10 mph.

Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 63. North wind around 10 mph.

Monday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 41. North wind around 10 mph.

Tuesday: Rain likely, mainly after noon. Cloudy, with a high near 48. North wind between 10 and 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Tuesday Night: A chance of rain and snow, mainly before midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 35. North wind between 10 and 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 52.

That is what it was before, at least for my area.

[Mr. T]

Almost sounds like Fran Drescher.

I grew up thinking all maids in Europe had the same ear-jarring laugh, until I realised it's just Fran Drescher

I watched her in an interview once, and she had the same laugh as she did on the show. I should just mute her anytime she's on the TV. It doesn't help that Nick@Nite plays her show, now

[txsnowmaker]

I just keep thinking about how off the forecasters were for the Dallas area's recent snowfall, as well as srain's admonition that at 48 hrs out, forecasts are far from set in stone. I like that the Houston/Galveston NWS referred to the winter weather "headache." Will be happy with anything, but the possibilities are certainly still alive for some surprises locally.

[wxdata]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
940 PM CST SUN FEB 21 2010

...WINTRY WEATHER TUESDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER UTAH WILL DIP INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS ON TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING COLDER TEMPERATURES
AND A CHANCE OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION AS AN OVERRUNNING PATTERN
DEVELOPS. THE INITIAL PRECIPITATION TYPE TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE
RAIN...BUT WILL MIX WITH AND TURN OVER TO SNOW BY THE AFTERNOON
AS IT DRIFTS SOUTHWARD REACHING ITS SOUTHERN MOST EXTENT NEAR
HIGHWAY 90 BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ONLY RAIN IS EXPECTED SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 90.

ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN LLANO...BURNET AND
WILLIAMSON COUNTIES. ACCUMULATIONS WILL DECREASE SOUTHWARD FROM AN
INCH POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN TRAVIS COUNTY TO ONE-HALF INCH OVER
NORTHWEST BEXAR COUNTY. PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
QUICKLY MOVES EASTWARD.


---------------------------------------------------------

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1147 PM CST SUN FEB 21 2010

1147 PM CST SUN FEB 21 2010

...WINTER WEATHER EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...

COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT
WITH AREAS OF SNOW DEVELOPING LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW AND TRAVEL IMPACTS ACROSS ALL OF
NORTH TEXAS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
END LATE TUESDAY.

A WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
LINE FROM CISCO...TO WAXAHACHIE...TO ATHENS. NORTH OF THE WATCH
AREA...LESSER AMOUNTS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW MAY ALSO IMPACT
TRAVEL. AT THIS TIME...SNOWFALL TOTALS OUTSIDE THE WATCH AREA ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 2 INCHES.

ANY CHANGES TO THE TRACK OR STRENGTH OF THE STORM SYSTEM WILL
GREATLY AFFECT THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND AREAS IMPACTED. RESIDENTS
AND TRAVELERS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST
FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH.

[SCSLAND]

I really hate to pee in everyone's chili, but "not wishcasting"?

C'mon folks.

While the majority of the public is ready for spring/warmth....why is it the majority of the people here want snow and ice?

I understand about the "excitement" and all, but really.....do you think because you want it, it will happen?

According to EVERY station/meteorologist on local TV there is not much of a chance for Houston to receive snow.

Where are you guys getting your "data"?