February Weather Discussion. Wild Winter Storms?

[TexasMetBlake]

What is it looking like for Montgomery county this time? We got a bit left out on the Dec 4th snow event....does this look like a good bet for folks north side?

You won't be left out this time... You have a shot of at least an inch of snow, IMO. Houston Metro definitely has a shot at a dusting, unless a band of snow develops overhead and wreaks havoc

Again, drawing lines are arbitrary. Could the snow line be further north than Montgomery County? Yes. Could the snow line be further south over Downtown Houston or even further south? Yes. I think everybody will see something, but too early as to what can be expected accumulations wise. I do feel as though the best chance of accumulating snow will be from 1960 northward though. We'll see.

[don]

The soundings support snow over north Harris County

[Mr. T]

Even if you live on the coast, you could still see some snowflakes out of this mixing with the light rainfall. The chance of anything accumulating is slim to none, but, I don't think it will be all rain there, either. These colder solutions are definitely encouraging.

[srainhoutx]

0z GFS snow accumulations of up to 1 inch north of I-10 the moisture looks the same as the 18z the only thing different is that it doesn't develop the coastal trough.

This can be a misleading map, as none of this takes into effect the possibility of mesoscale forcing and banding that will likely develop with this system. There will likely be many suprise high snowfall totals with this.

Take another look at the 850's (heights and vort) Don.

[Mr. T]

Ig GFS 2 meter temps are right, while precip is falling and 850 mb temps are cold enough, 0.10 inches falls between 3.7 and 1.6ºC, so maybe, maybe not, flakes in the air, but accumulation not at all, if GFS is correct.

If GFS is right, best is some melting flakes at the end.

No joy locally for those of us spoiled by the December 5th snow miracle.

I have no idea what the hell you are talking about. The GFS literally shows the possibility of accumulating snow to the coast, and surface temperatures do not have to be at freezing for this to occur.

[TexasMetBlake]

Models are a forecasting TOOL. They are NOT the forecast. Please keep that in mind when calling a blizzard or calling it bogus. Every county in the CWA stands a chance here. For those in Montgomery County northward, I'd say your chance is VERY good.

[txsnowmaker]

I will certainly not be complaining if the 0z GFS verifies, but I am almost more inclined to follow the NAM with regard to its heavier precip totals.

[BigNorthSide]

You guys work on getting some cold air here. I am gonna wash my old truck tomorrow.....shine er up real good. That will bring on more moisture than you can imagine

[TexasMetBlake]

WSW for HGX CWA?


Maybe the counties up around Madisonville and CLL that border NWS FWD, IMHO. Maybe one more row of counies South of existing FWD counties.

More likely a WWA.


Light snow in the air with mid 30s temps and making grass and streets wet probably doesn't trigger much.

Maybe as close as Huntsville area (Walker and Madison). IMHO.

Huh? Did you read the afternoon AFD?

[Mr. T]

From FWD:

GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF SYNOPTIC LIFT AND AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20 WITH THIS SYSTEM...WE/LL HOLD THE CURRENT
FORECAST INTACT. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF 2-4 INCHES FALL OVER
THE SOUTHERN METROPLEX WITH ISOLATED SWATCHES OF 5-8 INCHES FOR
BANDED SNOW OVER THE SOUTHERN 1/2 WHERE THE NAM SHOWS THE HEAVIER
AMOUNTS. ACTIVE WARNING AND ADVISORIES FOR SNOW WILL LIKELY BE
ISSUED WITH TOMORROW MORNINGS FORECAST.

EL NINO WINTERS...YOU GOTTA LOVE THEM.


And, that will be the fly in the ointment

[Kludge]

WSW for HGX CWA?


Maybe the counties up around Madisonville and CLL that border NWS FWD, IMHO. Maybe one more row of counies South of existing FWD counties.

More likely a WWA.


Light snow in the air with mid 30s temps and making grass and streets wet probably doesn't trigger much.

Maybe as close as Huntsville area (Walker and Madison). IMHO.

I'm your Huckleberry. Bring it on.

[Mr. T]

Ig GFS 2 meter temps are right, while precip is falling and 850 mb temps are cold enough, 0.10 inches falls between 3.7 and 1.6ºC, so maybe, maybe not, flakes in the air, but accumulation not at all, if GFS is correct.

If GFS is right, best is some melting flakes at the end.

No joy locally for those of us spoiled by the December 5th snow miracle.

I have no idea what the hell you are talking about. The GFS literally shows the possibility of accumulating snow to the coast, and surface temperatures do not have to be at freezing for this to occur.

Light snow doesn't accumlate between 35ºF and 39ºF. It may be in the air, but light snow doesn't accumulate. I have lived in New York, and heavy snow can accumulate at 35ºF, but snow in the air doesn't mean snow on the ground above freezing, with 6 hour liquid equivalents less than 2 tenths when temps hit 39ºF and 0.10 liquid equivalent at 35ºF.


Sorry to bust the bubble,

Maybe the GFS is a degree Celcius too warm, or the precip is heavier than the model shows, but no snow for you, especially at the coast, if the 0Z GFS verifies.

With banding features setting up, the snow will be anything but "light"

The GFS shows snow to the coast. Again, what the hell are you talking about? Seriously, you are making me laugh out loud here

[TexasMetBlake]

WSW for HGX CWA?


Maybe the counties up around Madisonville and CLL that border NWS FWD, IMHO. Maybe one more row of counies South of existing FWD counties.

More likely a WWA.


Light snow in the air with mid 30s temps and making grass and streets wet probably doesn't trigger much.

Maybe as close as Huntsville area (Walker and Madison). IMHO.

Huh? Did you read the afternoon AFD?

Yeah, and between the light precip and temps above freezing at the surface for pretty much all of the CWA, based on recent models, a WWA for Brazos/Washington/Houston/Madison/Walker would be erring on the side of least regret, but probably wouldn't verify as far as travel issues.

You really should be blocked from posting...you speak rubbish.

[txsnowmaker]

From FWD:

GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF SYNOPTIC LIFT AND AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20 WITH THIS SYSTEM...WE/LL HOLD THE CURRENT
FORECAST INTACT. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF 2-4 INCHES FALL OVER
THE SOUTHERN METROPLEX WITH ISOLATED SWATCHES OF 5-8 INCHES FOR
BANDED SNOW OVER THE SOUTHERN 1/2 WHERE THE NAM SHOWS THE HEAVIER
AMOUNTS. ACTIVE WARNING AND ADVISORIES FOR SNOW WILL LIKELY BE
ISSUED WITH TOMORROW MORNINGS FORECAST.

EL NINO WINTERS...YOU GOTTA LOVE THEM.


And, that will be the fly in the ointment

I agree. All it takes is a heavy band or two and we could really be in business.

[Mr. T]

Yeah, and between the light precip and temps above freezing at the surface for pretty much all of the CWA, based on recent models, a WWA for Brazos/Washington/Houston/Madison/Walker would be erring on the side of least regret, but probably wouldn't verify as far as travel issues.

You really should be blocked from posting...you speak rubbish.

I'm about to put him on ignore. He's just a tool. Ignore him.

CLL could recieve up to a half of foot of snow from this if a band sets up overhead...

[don]

Yeah, and between the light precip and temps above freezing at the surface for pretty much all of the CWA, based on recent models, a WWA for Brazos/Washington/Houston/Madison/Walker would be erring on the side of least regret, but probably wouldn't verify as far as travel issues.

Um models have been showing up too 3 inches of snow for those counties for a while now...that's definitely WWA if not WSW criteria...

[Mr. T]

Don't believe the amateur, flip back and look at pro-met Wxman57s posts and home made meteograms showing warm surface temps and not particularly dry dewpoints from previous model runs.

Who the hell are you? I'm talking about the CLL area, where you just laughingly stated that a WWA might not even verify. FWD has the county just north of Brazos possibly recieving anywhere from 5"-8" of snow. This threat continues into the CLL area and points eastward. The NAM is most eye popping.

I'm not saying we're going to see several inches, but a dusting of snow or even up to an inch is certainly possible.

[Rich]

Ed Mahmoud wrote:
Ig GFS 2 meter temps are right, while precip is falling and 850 mb temps are cold enough, 0.10 inches falls between 3.7 and 1.6ºC, so maybe, maybe not, flakes in the air, but accumulation not at all, if GFS is correct.

If GFS is right, best is some melting flakes at the end.

No joy locally for those of us spoiled by the December 5th snow miracle.
I have no idea what the hell you are talking about. The GFS literally shows the possibility of accumulating snow to the coast, and surface temperatures do not have to be at freezing for this to occur.


Light snow doesn't accumlate between 35ºF and 39ºF. It may be in the air, but light snow doesn't accumulate. I have lived in New York, and heavy snow can accumulate at 35ºF, but snow in the air doesn't mean snow on the ground above freezing, with 6 hour liquid equivalents less than 2 tenths when temps hit 39ºF and 0.10 liquid equivalent at 35ºF.

I was driving in Pearland during the December 4th event with temps near 35 degrees and their was snow accumulating on the roadways and several inches accumulating on grassy surfaces with temps above freezing. So it is possible!

[Mr. T]

I was driving in Pearland during the December 4th event with temps near 35 degrees and their was snow accumulating on the roadways and several inches accumulating on grassy surfaces with temps above freezing. So it is possible!

Thank you!

I've said this about 20 times now, but for some reason, people still believe that it has to be right at freezing for accumulation. If it is heavy enough, it will accumulate. I wouldn't be suprised if CLL never reaches freezing and they see several inches of snow.

[Portastorm]

Yeah, and between the light precip and temps above freezing at the surface for pretty much all of the CWA, based on recent models, a WWA for Brazos/Washington/Houston/Madison/Walker would be erring on the side of least regret, but probably wouldn't verify as far as travel issues.

Um models have been showing up too 3 inches of snow for those counties for a while now...that's definitely WWA if not WSW criteria...

Yeah, I'm not going to argue about Ed's contention that it doesn't snow along the coast ... but the comment about WWA if not WSW conditions not verifying up in the Bryan/College Station area -- based on current guidance -- is baffling. Ed, the 0z NAM is showing 3-4 inches of snow for the area and the 0z GFS 2-3 inches. That's easily WWA conditions.

You're a smart guy, you know this. C'mon man!