February Weather Discussion. Wild Winter Storms?

[ticka1]

As I am still learning - can someone please dechiper wxman57's post and what is coming in the forecast per the models for next weekend?

[srainhoutx]

More than likely cold air ticka1. The ECMWF shows yet another winter storm next weekend and the cold that has been building in Siberia, and AK will come pludging S. We shall see.

[srainhoutx]

HGX Update...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1023 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2010

.DISCUSSION...
FRONT IS NOW ON WACO`S DOORSTEP AND SHOULD BE ENTERING OUR CWA
AROUND 20Z AND OFF THE COAST BY EARLY EVENING. SKIES HAVE CLEARED
NICELY ACROSS THE AREA AND WITH SW LLVL FLOW EXPECT TEMPS TO CLIMB
WELL INTO THE 60S ACROSS SRN 2/3 OF THE AREA. NUDGED TEMPS UP
ACCORDINGLY AND ALSO TWEAKED CLOUD COVER TO MATCH ONGOING TRENDS.
STILL LOOKS LIKE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE I-10 SWD WHERE BEST
MOISTURE WILL BE LOCATED. INCOMING 12Z DATA STILL SUPPORTS SOME
--SN/--RA MIX POST FROPA ACROSS N/NE ZONES EARLY THIS EVENING.
IT`LL BE A QUICK SHOT AND LOW INTENSITY IF IT DOES OCCUR AND DO
NOT ANTICIPATE ANY PROBLEMS WITH SUCH A SCENARIO. 47

[BiggieSmalls]

HGX Update...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1023 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2010

.DISCUSSION...
FRONT IS NOW ON WACO`S DOORSTEP AND SHOULD BE ENTERING OUR CWA
AROUND 20Z AND OFF THE COAST BY EARLY EVENING. SKIES HAVE CLEARED
NICELY ACROSS THE AREA AND WITH SW LLVL FLOW EXPECT TEMPS TO CLIMB
WELL INTO THE 60S ACROSS SRN 2/3 OF THE AREA. NUDGED TEMPS UP
ACCORDINGLY AND ALSO TWEAKED CLOUD COVER TO MATCH ONGOING TRENDS.
STILL LOOKS LIKE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE I-10 SWD WHERE BEST
MOISTURE WILL BE LOCATED. INCOMING 12Z DATA STILL SUPPORTS SOME
--SN/--RA MIX POST FROPA ACROSS N/NE ZONES EARLY THIS EVENING.
IT`LL BE A QUICK SHOT AND LOW INTENSITY IF IT DOES OCCUR AND DO
NOT ANTICIPATE ANY PROBLEMS WITH SUCH A SCENARIO. 47

So CS has a decent shot at this "event"?

[srainhoutx]

Looks to be from Montgomery County and points N and E. Sort of now cast type of quick shot event if it occurs.

[srainhoutx]

Latest RUC shows the H5 Vort to our NE a bit stronger than forecast and also digging a bit further S into AR. We will see what that means for us a bit later as there looks to be some Upper Energy associated with that feature (500mb level) back into the Panhandle heading SE.

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/models/noaap ... te/SYS/WV/

[Paul]

Been in San Fran last couple of days on business. ON the way all I saw was snow. Any shot next week will not modify as much which has me somewhat concerned. Mostly for whats left of the tropical plants....

BTW- This is the most active El Nino I think I have ever witnessed. How many GOM lows have we seen this year? Sheesh....Cant but think what this all means come TS season as we transition out of El Nino into Nuetral.

[srainhoutx]

Yikes! Even in the Rio Grande Valley...

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
148 PM CST SUN FEB 14 2010

...CANADIAN AIR MASS TO SURGE INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS MONDAY...

.A COLD AND VERY DRY AIR MASS ORIGINATING FROM CENTRAL CANADA
PUSHES THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS EARLY MONDAY. STRONG NORTH WINDS
AND LIGHT RAIN ACCOMPANY THE INITIAL SURGE OF THE FRONT LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. THEN A STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE ADVANCES SOUTH CLEARING SKIES...USHERING IN VERY DRY AIR AND
DIMINISHING WINDS. THE COMBINATION OF THESE THREE FACTORS WILL
ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET MONDAY NIGHT REACHING FOR
FALLING BELOW FREEZING.

TXZ248>254-150400-
/O.NEW.KBRO.FZ.A.0005.100216T0600Z-100216T1500Z/
ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-BROOKS-KENEDY-STARR-HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ZAPATA...HEBBRONVILLE...FALFURRIAS...
SARITA...RIO GRANDE CITY...ROMA...MCALLEN...EDINBURG...PHARR...
MISSION...WESLACO...RAYMONDVILLE
148 PM CST SUN FEB 14 2010

[wxdata]

Emergency manager in Paris, Texas (northwest of Dallas) reports one inch of new snow on the ground.

[sambucol]

Emergency manager in Paris, Texas (northwest of Dallas) reports one inch of new snow on the ground.

Was snow forecasted for NE Texas?

[wxdata]

Emergency manager in Paris, Texas (northwest of Dallas) reports one inch of new snow on the ground.

Was snow forecasted for NE Texas?

Yes (although official forecast was calling for only 1/2" snow totals.

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... 4&map.y=35

[Ptarmigan]

Been in San Fran last couple of days on business. ON the way all I saw was snow. Any shot next week will not modify as much which has me somewhat concerned. Mostly for whats left of the tropical plants....

BTW- This is the most active El Nino I think I have ever witnessed. How many GOM lows have we seen this year? Sheesh....Cant but think what this all means come TS season as we transition out of El Nino into Nuetral.

This is probably one of the strongest El Nino since 1997-98. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is certainly very low. The lower the negative value, the more likely El Nino is in effect.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/soihtm1.shtml

A season shifting away from El Nino tends to be more active. 2005 season happened after a weak El Nino in 2004, which was active too despite it.

[wxdata]

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
321 PM CST SUN FEB 14 2010

...WIND ADVISORY FOR UPPER TEXAS COASTAL COUNTIES...

.STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING COLD FRONT.

TXZ214-235>238-150530-
/O.NEW.KHGX.WI.Y.0003.100215T0300Z-100215T1000Z/
BRAZORIA-CHAMBERS-GALVESTON-JACKSON-MATAGORDA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALVIN...ANAHUAC...ANGLETON...BAY CITY...
EDNA...FREEPORT...FRIENDSWOOD...GALVESTON...LAKE JACKSON...
LEAGUE CITY...MONT BELVIEU...PALACIOS...PEARLAND...TEXAS CITY...
WINNIE
321 PM CST SUN FEB 14 2010

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM CST
MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A
WIND ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM
CST MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

[msanwxfan]

the front is passing through CS. It appears it will be here (Houston, Metro Area) earlier than expected?

[Ptarmigan]

I notice NWS has a low of 32 for Houston tonight.

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... &map.y=153

[Portastorm]

This is a stout little front ... temps have dropped 17 degrees here in the Austin area in the last hour. After highs today in the upper 60s, we're sitting at about 50 degrees right now with clouds, gusty north winds, and surface temps continuing to fall.

[weatherguy425]

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
148 PM CST SUN FEB 14 2010

...CANADIAN AIR MASS TO SURGE INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS MONDAY...

.A COLD AND VERY DRY AIR MASS ORIGINATING FROM CENTRAL CANADA
PUSHES THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS EARLY MONDAY. STRONG NORTH WINDS
AND LIGHT RAIN ACCOMPANY THE INITIAL SURGE OF THE FRONT LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. THEN A STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE ADVANCES SOUTH CLEARING SKIES...USHERING IN VERY DRY AIR AND
DIMINISHING WINDS. THE COMBINATION OF THESE THREE FACTORS WILL
ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET MONDAY NIGHT REACHING FOR
FALLING BELOW FREEZING.

TXZ248>254-150400-
/O.NEW.KBRO.FZ.A.0005.100216T0600Z-100216T1500Z/
ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-BROOKS-KENEDY-STARR-HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ZAPATA...HEBBRONVILLE...FALFURRIAS...
SARITA...RIO GRANDE CITY...ROMA...MCALLEN...EDINBURG...PHARR...
MISSION...WESLACO...RAYMONDVILLE
148 PM CST SUN FEB 14 2010

...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BROWNSVILLE HAS ISSUED A FREEZE
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING.

TEMPERATURES TO FALL RAPIDLY MONDAY NIGHT WITH MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM 26 TO 32 DEGREES ACROSS MOST AREAS OF
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WITH EXCEPTION TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF HIDALGO
AND ALL OF CAMERON COUNTIES AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WATCH IS ISSUED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF 2 OR MORE HOURS OF
TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW 32 DEGREES WITHIN 24 TO 48 HOURS.

[srainhoutx]

Front just passed my location. Brenham reporting 48 while and College Station reporting 45 degrees at 5:00 PM. Certainly was a nice day to get outside and enjoy the warmth!

[srainhoutx]

For our neighbors to the E in LA...

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
333 PM CST SUN FEB 14 2010

...RAIN SLEET MIX EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO ALL SNOW EARLY MONDAY MORNING...

.A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. A
STRONG SURGE OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CAUSE LIGHT RAIN TO
MIX WITH SLEET SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN CHANGE TO ALL SNOW
BEFORE ENDING MONDAY MORNING.

LAZ034>040-046>050-MSZ068>071-077-150545-
/O.NEW.KLIX.WW.Y.0004.100215T0600Z-100215T1200Z/
POINTE COUPEE-WEST FELICIANA-EAST FELICIANA-ST. HELENA-TANGIPAHOA-
WASHINGTON-ST. TAMMANY-IBERVILLE-WEST BATON ROUGE-
EAST BATON ROUGE-ASCENSION-LIVINGSTON-WILKINSON-AMITE-PIKE-
WALTHALL-PEARL RIVER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEW ROADS...LIVONIA...
ST. FRANCISVILLE...JACKSON...CLINTON...GREENSBURG...MONTPELIER...
HAMMOND...PONCHATOULA...BOGALUSA...FRANKLINTON...SLIDELL...
MANDEVILLE...COVINGTON...LACOMBE...PLAQUEMINE...WHITE CASTLE...
PORT ALLEN...ADDIS...BRUSLY...BATON ROUGE...GONZALES...
DONALDSONVILLE...DENHAM SPRINGS...WALKER...CENTREVILLE...
WOODVILLE...GLOSTER...LIBERTY...CROSBY...MCCOMB...TYLERTOWN...
PICAYUNE
333 PM CST SUN FEB 14 2010

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
6 AM CST MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6
AM CST MONDAY.

A STRONG COLD AIR SURGE BEHIND A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL
CHANGE RAIN OVER TO SLEET THEN TO SNOW IN RAPID TRANSITION FROM
EAST TO WEST LATE TONIGHT. SURFACE TRAVEL PROBLEMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED BUT MOTORISTS SHOULD BE AWARE THAT VISIBILTIES MAY BE REDUCED
DUE TO THE SNOWFALL. SOME GRASSY AREAS AND ELEVATED SURFACES MAY
RECEIVE FROM A TRACE TO ONE INCH OF ACCUMULATIONS WHICH SHOULD
READILY MELT.

[srainhoutx]

And and this out of Austin/San Antonio...

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
505 PM CST SUN FEB 14 2010

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-150230-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LLANO...BURNET...GEORGETOWN...DEL RIO...
ROCKSPRINGS...LEAKEY...KERRVILLE...BANDERA...FREDERICKSBURG...
BOERNE...BLANCO...SAN MARCOS...AUSTIN...BASTROP...GIDDINGS...
BRACKETTVILLE...UVALDE...HONDO...SAN ANTONIO...NEW BRAUNFELS...
SEGUIN...LOCKHART...LA GRANGE...EAGLE PASS...CRYSTAL CITY...
PEARSALL...PLEASANTON...FLORESVILLE...KARNES CITY...GONZALES...
CUERO...HALLETTSVILLE...CARRIZO SPRINGS
505 PM CST SUN FEB 14 2010

...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ON A COLD FRONT...

THE BRIEF WARMING TREND THIS AFTERNOON IS ENDING QUICKLY AS
A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
FROM THE NORTH...THAT WILL BRING WINDY AND COLD CONDITIONS TO
THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TODAYS HIGHS ROSE
TO 71 AT DEL RIO AND SAN ANTONIO AND 69 AT AUSTIN MABRY AND
AUSTIN BERGSTROM. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL AROUND
35 TO 40 DEGREES IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT.

A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAS
DEVELOPED ALONG THE COLD FRONT FROM SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF AUSTIN
TO NEAR NEW BRAUNFELS AND SAN ANTONIO. THIS LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE COLD FRONT LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL BRING A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SCATTERED RAINS FOLLOWED BY DRIER AND COLDER
CONDITIONS TONIGHT.

STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH
THE COLD FRONT AT SPEEDS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH. A WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH
MIDNIGHT FOR ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

THIS WILL BRING LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 ACROSS THE
HILL COUNTRY TO THE LOW AND MID 30S ACROSS ADJACENT PARTS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH COOL
AFTERNOONS AND COLD NIGHTS. INCREASING CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN ON
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.