February Weather Discussion. Wild Winter Storms?

[wxman57]

Perhaps we should start another thread to discuss the upcoming hurricane season? I have a few thoughts, but won't post them here so that we don't stray too far off-topic.

[ticka1]

Good idea wxman....only 3 1/2 months until the official start of the season.....it will be here before we know it.

[sleetstorm]

What can people in SE Texas anticipate during the last week and weekend of this month, weatherwise? Should I desist praying & waiting for more sleet and snow after this month is done or wait until sometime next month since wxman57 stated that this cold and wintry pattern could feasably last into next moth.

[Paul]

The 12z GFS really shows nothing out until 288hr which it isnt much. I think we will see near normal temps from here on out. Of course I said that until the last front pushed through.

[C2G]

The 12z GFS really shows nothing out until 288hr which it isnt much. I think we will see near normal temps from here on out. Of course I said that until the last front pushed through.

Well then........my prayers have been answered.

[wxman57]

What can people in SE Texas anticipate during the last week and weekend of this month, weatherwise? Should I desist praying & waiting for more sleet and snow after this month is done or wait until sometime next month since wxman57 stated that this cold and wintry pattern could feasably last into next moth.

Although there are indicators which suggest winter is far from over across the U.S., I'm not seeing anything specific for next week at this time as far as any winter weather threat (or opportunity?). There are hints of another moderate West Gulf Low late next week, but there is too much variance in the models and from run to run in the same models to have any confidence in such a storm.

Now I've seen some pretty cold weather even through March down here, and I'm expecting the much below normal temperatures to persist through next month. It's not out of the question that we could get some frozen precip down here as late as March, but that's just a possibility, not a forecast.

[niner21]

Should I trust NOAA's site for the forecast for this Friday-Sunday?

I can't believe I'm seeing low 70's for highs. Barf (we like cooool weather for camping).

Rocksprings is about 1700' alt so it tends to be a bit cooler....

Any hints on that period?

[wxdata]

Should I trust NOAA's site for the forecast for this Friday-Sunday?

I can't believe I'm seeing low 70's for highs. Barf (we like cooool weather for camping).

Rocksprings is about 1700' alt so it tends to be a bit cooler....

Any hints on that period?

The closest city that the models spit out data for is Del Rio. The GFS shows middle 60's Friday, low 70's Saturday, upper 70's Sunday (all for Del Rio.) Overnights in the 40's and 50's. A few showers possible. NWS forecast for Rocksprings seems to be just about right.

[wxman57]

Should I trust NOAA's site for the forecast for this Friday-Sunday?

I can't believe I'm seeing low 70's for highs. Barf (we like cooool weather for camping).

Rocksprings is about 1700' alt so it tends to be a bit cooler....

Any hints on that period?

The GFS puts out data for any lat/lon, so there is data for Rocksprings (30.02N/-100.21W). You can find it on the ARL website (http://ready.arl.noaa.gov/READYcmet.php). I made a meteogram for you to indicated temps/precip this weekend. Looks nice. Lows in the low 50s, highs in the mid 60s to low 70s. That's warm to you? I've never camped in that cold of weather.

[srainhoutx]

Pattern is giving the models fits! It was 27 at my location this morning with a heavy frost.

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
402 AM EST TUE FEB 16 2010

VALID 12Z SAT FEB 20 2010 - 12Z TUE FEB 23 2010


USED THE 00Z/16 ECMWF FOR THE PRELIMINARY FRONTS AND PRESSURES
DAYS 3-6...BLENDING IN ABOUT A THIRD OF THE 12Z/15 ECENS MEAN DAY
7 MAINLY TO SOFTEN THE CYCLOGENESIS SIGNATURE ALONG THE EAST
COAST. THE ECMWF HAS THE BEST CONTINUITY WITH THE SPLIT FLOW OFF
THE WEST COAST COMING INTO THE MEDIUM RANGE...AND SUSPECT THAT THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN IT AND THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE DAY 3 OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC FACTORS HEAVILY INTO THE EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT OF A
MAJOR SYNOPTIC WAVE DOWNSTREAM ON THE ATLANTIC COAST OF NORTH
AMERICA. DURING THE PAST WEEK...THE GFS...AND THEN THE ECMWF
DEVELOPED A STRONG CYCLONE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AROUND THE
22ND OF THE MONTH...AND HAVE SUBSEQUENTLY BACKED OFF THAT IDEA.
THE CURRENT CYCLE BRINGS THE WAVE BACK...WITH THE GFS ON THE FLAT
END OF THE ENVELOPE...THE GEM GLOBAL DEVELOPING A DEEP LOW
OFFSHORE...AND THE ECMWF BOMBING OUT A MONSTER RIGHT ALONG THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD...ALONG THE LINES OF THE ORIGINAL SOLUTIONS
DEPICTING THE EVENT. THE INCORPORATION OF THE MOST RECENT EC MEAN
SHOULD TAKE SOME OF THE BITE OUT OF A MASSIVE ERROR ON THE PART OF
THE ECMWF...BUT...THE PRELIMINARY MANUAL PROGS ARE STILL PRO-STORM
WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE. THE BLOCK GETS SO STRONG THIS
PERIOD...THAT THE SYSTEMS COMING INTO THE WEST COAST GET RIPPED TO
PIECES...WITH POOR ONSHORE FLOW.

CISCO

[srainhoutx]

Interesting that the PNA continues to rise and not decline...



Also note the spread between the GFS and the ECMWF at hour 168...

[txsnowmaker]

Can someone explain what the latest UKMET model is showing for Texas (especially for our area) early-mid next week? This seems to have generated some interest from Texans in other forums...

[srainhoutx]

Can someone explain what the latest UKMET model is showing for Texas (especially for our area) early-mid next week? This seems to have generated some interest from Texans in other forums...

A bit too soon to tell as it only goes out to hour 144. With that said, the the 500mb flow does show a somewhat cross polar flow with an Upper Air disturbance riding S along the lee side of the Rockies in the NW flow aloft. We shall see....

[kayci]

T'was nippy this morning.


I can remember recent light freezes, even in March, and we may or may not get more cold weather, but I think the window is closing on Winter Weather Miracle season.

one could only hope.....

[txsnowmaker]

Thanks for the UKMET analysis srain. Will be interesting to see how the last week in February shapes up.

[srainhoutx]

Hey, where can I find UK Met data out to 144 hours.


Inquiring minds and all...

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/UKHE ... kloop.html

Also of note is the Pacific RECON scheduled. G-IV from Japan and C-130 from Anchorage. (Issued yesterday)...so there is a lot of interest concerning the 'potential' of a winter storm.

000
NOUS42 KNHC 151745
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1245 PM EST MON 15 FEBRUARY 2010
SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
VALID 16/1100Z TO 17/1100Z FEBRUARY 2010
WSPOD NUMBER.....09-077

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 70
A. P29/ 37.5N 146.8W/ 17/1200Z
B. AFXXX 30WSC TRACK29
C. 17/0600Z
D. 18 DROPS ON TRACK
E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 17/1800Z

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 71
A. P29/ 37.5N 146.8W/ 18/1200Z

FLIGHT TWO - NOAA 49
A. P99/ TBD/ 18/1200Z
JWP

[srainhoutx]

Thanks.


I wonder why the UK Met in the 'regular' part of the e-Wall only goes 72 hours.

Also of note Ed, is that the UKMET is second in 'verifcation' behind the EC so far this winter.

[srainhoutx]

12Z GGEM at hour 144...appears to be some changes in the works...

[wxman57]

Here's a 0-180hr meteogram from the 12Z GFS. Looking like a mild weekend for a change. 54-74 on Sunday would be quite pleasant compared to last Saturday. Long range indicators continue to hint at another major cold outbreak next week, but it's not seen by the operational GFS. Euro does see the cold air in Canada in 6-7 days.

[txsnowmaker]

FYI--Channel 13 just mentioned arctic air "fresh from Siberia" making its way south next week all the way into Texas (to which he added, 'we'll see how far south'), with potential record setting lows across much of the US.