February Weather Discussion. Wild Winter Storms?

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Ptarmigan
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Mr. T wrote: Snow twice in one season in Houston? Yes, that was very impressive...

I have a video to upload of Candy Cane and I walking around and driving in the snow in The Woodlands area... I'll upload it later.

Definitely thought we'd see accumulations a little farther south, however, the winter storm warnings up north did verify, so kudos to the NWS for verifying quite nicely for this event. It was fun to see it snowing here in Kingwood for the third time this year! I doubt I'll see that again for a while.
Any Snowfall (Trace to +2")
1 Snowfall=Every 3 years
2 Snowfall=Every 9 years
3 Snowfall=Every 27 years
4 Snowfall=Every 81 years

>0.01 Snowfall
1 Snowfall=Every 5 years
2 Snowfall=Every 25 years
3 Snowfall=Every 125 years
4 Snowfall=Every 625 years

>1 Inch Snowfall
1 >1" Snowfall=Every 8.2 years
2 >1" Snowfall=Every 67.2 years
3 >1" Snowfall=Every 551.4 years
4 >1" Snowfall=Every 4,521.2 years

>2 Inch Snowfall
1 >2" Snowfall=Every 19.2 years
2 >2" Snowfall=Every 368.6 years
3 >2" Snowfall=Every 7,077.9 years
4 >2" Snowfall=Every 135,895.5 years

Let see, December 4, 2009 was a >1" snow event, while February 24, 2010 was a trace event. Do the math, it should happen every 25 years. That's rare.
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Ptarmigan
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Ed Mahmoud wrote:Maybe two years in a row of December snow miracles spoiled me, but some sleet pellets on the car, and a few random snowflakes, like I say, spoiled.
Those two years in a row had >1" snowfall is a rarity right there! Going back to 1895, there were 9 December snowfalls, including the 2009 snowfall event. A December snowfall event should happen every 13 years on average. Four of them were >1" snowfall event and on average a December >1" snowfall should happen every 29 years on average. One December snowfall was >2" and that was in 1929 and that is rare, I am guessing every 100 to 200 years.
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srainhoutx
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DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0653 AM CST FRI FEB 26 2010

VALID 261300Z - 271200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
AN AMPLIFIED FLOW REGIME WILL PERSIST OVER THE CONUS TODAY WITH A
DEEP CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER LONG ISLAND...A SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING FROM TX/OK TO THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO...AND A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD FROM THE ERN PAC TO CA BY EARLY
SATURDAY. THE TX TROUGH WILL BE PRECEDED BY THE NWD RETURN OF A
MODIFYING CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR MASS FROM THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO TO
SE TX...BENEATH CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE
NET RESULT WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY
ACROSS SE TX BY ABOUT MIDDAY...WHICH WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE PATH OF A WEAK SURFACE WAVE MOVING
SEWD FROM N CENTRAL TX TO THE NW GULF COAST. SOME SMALL HAIL COULD
OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER STORMS GIVEN THE COLD MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES
/-24 C AT 500 MB/...BUT THE THREAT FOR 1 INCH DIAMETER OR GREATER
HAIL APPEARS TOO SMALL TO WARRANT THE INTRODUCTION OF A 5% SEVERE
HAIL PROBABILITY AREA.

SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A SWATH OF CUMULUS CONVECTION WITH THE
MIDLEVEL THERMAL TROUGH NEAR 130 W...AND OCEANIC LIGHTNING DATA HAVE
CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THIS AREA OF
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE NRN CA COAST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...AND SPREAD SWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN CA COAST BY EARLY
SATURDAY AS THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INLAND.

..THOMPSON.. 02/26/2010
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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wxman57
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In my never-ending quest for warm weather, I plotted a couple of meteograms from the latest GFS that go out to March 14th. Unfortunately, there is still no light at the end of the tunnel. Not ONE forecast of 70+ temps through mid March!

Image

Image
redneckweather
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Man wxman, that REALLY blows!!
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kayci
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PsuWNMatt wrote:What an interesting weather day here in central PA...Near blizzard conditions (at times) have been occurring for the past 18 hours and it looks like that might continue here for the next couple hours...I was walking back from town last night and in the 4 years I have been here, I've never seen such brutal conditions before...Just doing things like taking out the garbage is a tough task out in this!...But of course for all weathernerds out there, it's a lot of fun too... :mrgreen:
Matt, you're such a diehard! :mrgreen:
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srainhoutx
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Ed Mahmoud wrote:Re: SPC Outlook, line to the West of showers might, if we're all very good, have a random flash/rumble.
Getting those rumbles now in NW Harris County. ;)
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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redneckweather
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As I said in Ed's funderstorm thread, we had some good hail here at my office off of Rayford/Sawdust and I-45. It was coming down good! The thunder was nice to hear also....not sure when the last time I heard thunder was? :shock: :D
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wxdata
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At least on vis satellite, it's a 'purdy' looking upper system. Classic comma shape...
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wxdata
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Report: Alief- marble size hail
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Paul
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Dan- remove my post about the storms today...I am getting marble size hail here as well...
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Paul
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72F here in Pearland....Hooks at 58F...nice temp drop...
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kayci
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68 in Texas City, partly sunny. Looks like more rain coming shortly.
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Katdaddy
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Pea size hail and strong gusty winds in League City. Reported by my wife.
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wxdata
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Pea sized hail reported in Crosby
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wxman57
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Katdaddy wrote:Pea size hail and strong gusty winds in League City. Reported by my wife.
You could pretend it was sleet and say you got your winter weather over there, finally. ;-)
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wxman57
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Same meteograms but with the 12Z GFS. Still no 70F through mid March.

Image

Image
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srainhoutx
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Interesting Climatology Info from HGX this afternoon concerning February...

.CLIMATE...
WITH JUST THREE DAYS LEFT IN THE MONTH...FEBRUARY 2010 IS SET TO END
UP BEING ONE OF THE COLDEST ON RECORD. THROUGH THE 25TH...IAH`S AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE WAS 47.9 DEGREES WHICH IS 7.2 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND WOULD
END UP BEING THE 5TH COOLEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD. HOU`S AVERAGE TEMPERATURE
WAS 48.7 DEGREES WHICH IS 8.7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND WOULD END UP
BEING THE 2ND COOLEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD. GLS`S AVERAGE TEMPERATURE
WAS 49.9 DEGREES WHICH IS 7.8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND WOULD END UP
BEING THE 6TH COOLEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD. CLL`S AVERAGE TEMPERATURE
WAS 46.1 DEGREES WHICH IS 8.0 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND WOULD END UP
BEING THE 5TH COOLEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD. PRETTY AMAZING! 42
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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C2G
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Seems like it always warms up around my birthday, mid-February, with the exception of a few winters, but not this year. My goodness was it cold out there tonight.
Please bring on spring and warmth. This winter has been brutal physically and financially. The last two electric bills have been the highest ever in the three years I've lived at this residence.
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Cloud2ground wrote:Seems like it always warms up around my birthday, mid-February, with the exception of a few winters, but not this year. My goodness was it cold out there tonight.
Please bring on spring and warmth. This winter has been brutal physically and financially. The last two electric bills have been the highest ever in the three years I've lived at this residence.
YOU'RE NOT KIDDING. I'm a caddie at a local country club, and bad weather kills me. I've been without power for over two weeks.. chose food over electricity.. There have been several mornings I could see my breath in my house. Hopefully things are gonna start picking up at work..
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