February Weather Discussion. Wild Winter Storms?

[weatherguy425]

HGX Update...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
850 PM CST MON FEB 22 2010

.DISCUSSION...
DIDN`T SEE ANYTHING IN THE NEW 00Z NAM12 RUN THAT WOULD MAKE ME
WANT TO CHANGE ANY OF THE WINTER WX WARNING/ADVISORY LOCATIONS.
IT`S STILL DEPICTING THE HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE N/NE HALF
OF THE WARNING AREA. TIMING ALREADY IN THE FCST AND AS MENTIONED
IN THE WINTER STORM WARNING TEXT LOOKS TO BE ON TARGET. WILL
TWEAK LOW TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES TONIGHT ACROSS NRN/CNTL PORTIONS OF
THE CWA AS STRATUS HAS FILLED BACK IN A LITTLE FASTER THAN EXPECTED
WHICH SHOULD SOMEWHAT LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING. WILL RE-ISSUE THE
WSW HERE SHORTLY MAINLY TO KEEP IT FROM EXPIRING...BUT NOT PLANNING
ON ANY CHANGES TO IT. AND UNLESS THE 00Z GFS COMES IN WITH SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES...EXPECT THIS TO THE THE ONLY UPDATE.

[Andrew]

I think it is very interesting how fast temps can drop once you get out of the city. On Noaa I posted by zip code and this is the area that came up:

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... 2=-95.3867

I then saw ( a year later) that that did not include my own address. Or even close to that really. So here is my real location:

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... it=0&lg=en

A four degree difference and according to the site we are going to get snow tomorrow while a couple miles south will not until the night.

[wxdata]

Two NWS winter weather definitions:

Winter weather advisory -- When a significant winter storm or hazardous winter weather is occurring, imminent, or likely and is an inconvenience.

Winter storm warning -- A significant winter storm or hazardous winter weather is occurring, imminent, or likely, and is a threat to life and property.

[weatherguy425]

0z GFS has started

[sleetstorm]

I do not know if any of you have noticed but there is another area of low pressure out in south Arizona which is predicted to move west-southwestward. Will it have any impact on our weather here in SE Texas or no?

[wxman57]

Jeff Lindner's update email a few mins ago;

"Only change this evening is to extend .5 to 1 inch accumulation to include all of Fort Bend and Wharton counties to match with NWS issued WWA. Wharton County will probably be closer to the lower end of this scale.

Other thing to note is that this will be a very wet now...great big large flakes, but very poor ratios so that may help trim down some on the overall accumulations. It is also important to point out that for much of the event temperatures will be at or above freezing so heavy burst will result in accumulations that will then melt and so on until it ends. Very similar to Dec 4th, 2009 although surface temperatures may be a touch higher than that event given current high dew points. This will make it very difficult to measure accumulations...especially total accumulations.

See no significant reason to alter other accumulations or onset timing at this time...although N Harris accumulations could be a tad high at the moment...but will just let it ride for now. Little doubt we will see snow...not as confident on accumulations south of HWY 105. Still looking good for heavy banding N of HWY 105 where +SN is likely Tuesday PM.

Take the camera tomorrow it will be one of those days across SE TX!"

I agree with everything Jeff is saying. Time to get ready for bed. Will check in around 5:30am before heading to Baytown for a client meeting.

[Andrew]

GFS delays the cold air a little and doesn't show as much moisture.

[wxdata]

I do not know if any of you have noticed but there is another area of low pressure out in south Arizona which is predicted to move west-southwestward. Will it have any impact on our weather here in SE Texas or no?

That's THE system.

[srainhoutx]

I do not know if any of you have noticed but there is another area of low pressure out in south Arizona which is predicted to move west-southwestward. Will it have any impact on our weather here in SE Texas or no?

The Upper Low is moving ESE sleet from AZ. Should pass near the Big Bend in W TX and continue to move across Central TX tomorrow and be nearing our area in the overnight hours tomorrow night.

[Mr. T]

GFS delays the cold air a little and doesn't show as much moisture.

Temps look exactly the same to me, but does it matter? It is nowcast time

Both the GFS and NAM are not handling the current convective activity across W and N TX well at all... There is a whole lot more moisture out there.

[weatherguy425]

GFS definetly delays the arrival of colder air and less moisture, along with what the NAM showed you have to go hmmmm

[HouTXmetro]

Awww sh@... Here we go again with the models. guess we just have to wait and see.

[Mr. T]

GFS definetly delays the arrival of colder air and less moisture, along with what the NAM showed you have to go hmmmm

lol, no. We can see the moisture across Texas right now and notice they are already underdoing activity. Also, the NAM was colder than its 18z run, so that was a good thing. But again, very minor details that do not matter much

It's nowcast time, now. There really isn't any point looking at the models in so much detail at this point. Shades of the 6z NAM that took away all the snow the morning of the Dec 4th event last December...

Nothing has changed. Calm down guys, lol. You guys have very drastic emotions

[sleetstorm]

Ooooo, that is not good for those who want much in the way of wintry fun. I pray that it is wrong.

[txsnowmaker]

A few more comments out of Ft. Worth NWS

Precip seems to be forming a little sooner than the models want it too

It is ahead of where the 00z NAM is indicating precipitation.

I just talked with Eastland County. Rising Star has 1/2 mile visiblity with snow as of 9 pm.

Thanks wxdata. What is happening to our north is a prime example of how the models aren't handling this well. Like others have said, we are now at the point of "nowcasting." I still think that just about everybody in Houston will see snow before this is over.

[Mr. T]

Ooooo, that is not good for those who want much in the way of wintry fun. I pray that it is wrong.

I pray that is right. It gives everyone snow

A little less moisture and that is it. This run is colder than the 12z GFS, if we really must compare. As has been said, it is nowcasting time.

Everything is looking good! Everyone get a good night's sleep tonight for the busy day tommorow...

[jett7777]

So I guess the real question is when does this event begin? rather what time will it start?

[Mr. T]

So I guess the real question is when does this event begin? rather what time will it start?

Rain in the early afternoon changing to snow by 6 pm.

[sleetstorm]

Ooooo, that is not good for those who want much in the way of wintry fun. I pray that it is wrong.

I pray that is right. It gives everyone snow

A little less moisture and that is it. This run is colder than the 12z GFS, if we really must compare. As has been said, it is nowcasting time.

Everything is looking good! Everyone get a good night's sleep tonight for the busy day tommorow...

I meant that I pray that the much colder air is not at all delayed and that there is sufficient moisure in the air for snow to form, Mr. T. I, too, want snow just as badly as everyone else on this weather forum.

[matthouston]

Hello everyone. I'm not new to the boards, but I typically "participate" as a spectator, as I know NOTHING at all about weather. I just find it fascinating.

My question has to do with school closings. I know northerners laugh at us, but it seems this could actually be a "significant" event for southeast Texas and could definitely justify a few school closings.

I attend day and evening classes at University of Houston Downtown. What is the likelihood that the college will choose to close its doors, at least for the evening classes before things begin to stick (if that ends up happening).

I know schools can be VERY stubborn from time to time. My wife teaches ninth grade at Pasadena Memorial HS and their school forbid the teachers from taking the kids out to enjoy the Dec 4th snow - acted like it wasn't even happening. Scrooges!