February Weather Discussion. Wild Winter Storms?

[HouTXmetro]

But I want accumulating snow

[Mr. T]

NAM is defiantly colder:

I would hope so. It was way warmer than any other global model

I am eagerly awaiting Ed's analysis of the 0z NAM using Accuwx Pro Site graphics

You can see some good charts here:
http://www.twisterdata.com/

Just click "NAM" on top and "Winter" in lower left frame then "Snow Depth". Navigate to the proper panel (32-36 hrs). Here's the 00Z snow map from the NAM:

http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/ ... URFACE.png

Back to "24"...

I was being sarcastic towards Ed

But, in all seriousness, thank you wxman for the links.

[Mr. T]

By the way, did you notice that the 00Z NAM keeps snow (accumulating snow) well north of Harris County? More precip than 18Z by far, but nowhere near Houston for accumulations.

Yes, but it is the only model doing that and the warmest by far. I'd rather go with the consensus of the other global models.

I have heard from several pro mets on Eastern US WX that NAM is usually terrible with snowfall accumulations, noting the poor performance with the last few storms to effect the NE. I wouldn't give it too much attention.

I agree, NAM is terrible. But if roles were reversed and the NAM was forecasting snow while the GFS wasn't what would you bet that many here would be the NAM's biggest fans?

To be honest, I'd feel very nervous about it and probably wouldn't believe it

But, you are probably right

I just like to look at the positives, I guess

[wxman57]

Can you straighten me out how air coming from 390 meters elevation in Oklahoma City warms 14ºF coming to Houston?

I thought I had a clue of diabatic heating, but obviously I don't.

It's possible I'm not remembering the value for OKC right. I do remember the correction factor for Amarillo is +20F, and it's a bit over 1000 meters elevation. So it may be 8-9F for OKC. Regardless 32+8 (or 4 or 5) isn't equal to < 32. And that doesn't account for any airmass modification on the way down. If I was really wanting snow in Houston, the current setup of temps across TX/OK would bother me.

[ticka1]

How many more model runs do we have before the actual event arrives?

Every 6 hours. 00Z GFS/Euro, 6Z NAM/GFS, 12Z NAM/GFS/EURO and 18Z NAM/GFS/Euro

thank you.

[Paul]

Nice to see so many people online tonight...regulars and 35 quests. Must be a record or something...

OT: I am sure glad this is the last hurrah of winter. I am so ready to start tracking some TS's. The MDR ssts anomalies are running way above normal. Memories of 05.

[ticka1]

Jeff Lindner's update email a few mins ago;

Only change this evening is to extend .5 to 1 inch accumulation to include all of Fort Bend and Wharton counties to match with NWS issued WWA. Wharton County will probably be closer to the lower end of this scale.

Other thing to note is that this will be a very wet now...great big large flakes, but very poor ratios so that may help trim down some on the overall accumulations. It is also important to point out that for much of the event temperatures will be at or above freezing so heavy burst will result in accumulations that will then melt and so on until it ends. Very similar to Dec 4th, 2009 although surface temperatures may be a touch higher than that event given current high dewpoints. This will make it very difficult to measure accumulations...especially total accumulations.

See no significant reason to alter other accumulations or onset timing at this time...although N Harris accumulations could be a tad high at the moment...but will just let it ride for now. Little doubt we will see snow...not as confident on accumulations south of HWY 105. Still looking good for heavy banding N of HWY 105 where +SN is likely Tuesday PM.

Take the camera tomorrow it will be one of those days across SE TX!

[AggieBuckeye]

105 runs from Navasota to Conroe to Beaumont

[randybpt]

I have to agree with wxman, there just isn't cold air up north to support snow here i am hoping im wrong but looking at ob's to our north they are borderline to even support accumalating snow there, what we can only hope is that the upper levels are cold enough that when precip starts it pushes the cold air down and cools the entire column. i'm going with my gut here and say no snow accumalates south of the conroe, college station, jasper

[wxdata]

From Ft. Worth NWS:

We are noting the band of snow...maybe sleet/snow between Sweetwater and Comanche. KDYX is showing some bright banding. KDYS (Dyess AFB) reported 6SM -SN in the 0220Z Special.

[srainhoutx]

Nice to see so many people online tonight...regulars and 35 quests. Must be a record or something...

Yes it is Paul. The record was 71 online a little after 3 PM this afternoon. Hope everyone is enjoying themselves and the new platform. Just wait and see what we're working on regarding some enhancements.

[ticka1]

From Ft. Worth NWS:

We are noting the band of snow...maybe sleet/snow between Sweetwater and Comanche. KDYX is showing some bright banding. KDYS (Dyess AFB) reported 6SM -SN in the 0220Z Special.

Thanks for the nowcasting Dan - I was wondering how things were with the actual event...

[hlewis]

Dan is WxData? Dan M? =) Sorry, just a lurker with a few questions here and there, but i remember him because he was so kind to actually come into the forum and share his knowledge!! Miss Dan's talk in here, especially during hurricane season!

Ok continue on! If that's Dan, nice to see ya! Maybe I'm just catching on? lol

I'm really really prayin for some snow over here in Wharton County guys and gals. Push that stuff a little my way.....

[wxdata]

Dan is WxData? Dan M? =) Sorry, just a lurker with a few questions here and there, but i remember him because he was so kind to actually come into the forum and share his knowledge!! Miss Dan's talk in here, especially during hurricane season!

Ok continue on! If that's Dan, nice to see ya! Maybe I'm just catching on? lol

Yeah, I thought I'd fool everyone with my 'wxdata' avatar, but many saw through that real fast LOL

[wxdata]

A few more comments out of Ft. Worth NWS

Precip seems to be forming a little sooner than the models want it too

It is ahead of where the 00z NAM is indicating precipitation.

I just talked with Eastland County. Rising Star has 1/2 mile visiblity with snow as of 9 pm.

[wxdata]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
910 PM CST MON FEB 22 2010

...A WINTER STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN THIRD
OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

.A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH SOUTHEAST TEXAS
ON TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A VARIETY OF WINTER WEATHER TO
THE REGION. RAIN WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY MORNING AND QUICKLY CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW. SNOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING AND END
BETWEEN 11 PM TUESDAY EVENING AND 3 AM WEDNESDAY.

[sambucol]

Wintry mix is showing up heading toward Dallas on the radar. It was clear earlier tonight. http://sirocco.accuweather.com/nx_mosai ... SIRTXS.gif

[snowman65]

Is BMT/PA still in the hunt for a little mixed snow?

[Mr. T]

i'm going with my gut here and say no snow accumalates south of the conroe, college station, jasper

Good luck with that. You are going to need it

[AggieBuckeye]

While I don't think Houston will see any more than 1 inch (and that's pushing it), I do think we will see a dusting city wide.

If you want to make snowmen, I suggest you head to Cypress/Spring/Tomball/Humble and Northward.