February Weather Discussion. Wild Winter Storms?

[wxman57]

Is that NAM snowfall map correct?

1-3 inch snowfalls seem a little light to me based on NAM QPF and temps.

Is it correct? That appears to be what the 12Z NAM is forecasting. So the map is correct in that respect. Is it a good forecast? Probably not.

[harpman]

Good luck with your snow! I wish you could send some of it to the New orleans area, but, it looks not to be this time. Has anyone looked ahead to the first week of March? Wow!

[weatherguy425]

When would changes or additions to the Winter weather advisories start occuring?

[Big O]

I am trying to decide whether to fly into Austin to catch the snow event. WXMAN57 or any others, does accumulating snow appear to be a lock or is there a danger that Austin gets dryslotted like it did during the December snow event? How many inches in north Austin, if any? Thanks in advance.

[Portastorm]

I am trying to decide whether to fly into Austin to catch the snow event. WXMAN57 or any others, does accumulating snow appear to be a lock or is there a danger that Austin gets dryslotted like it did during the December snow event? How many inches in north Austin, if any? Thanks in advance.

You're better off getting a forecast from Wxman57 than NWSFO EWX. My local NWS office started the day issuing a Winter Storm Watch and posting a graphic for 2-4 inches in the Austin metro area. The text forecast however indicated only 1-2 inches. Now, at 10 am, they just issue a Special Weather Statement indicating only 1/2 to 1 inch for the Austin metro. I don't think they have a clue.

[srainhoutx]

HGX Update...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1016 AM CST MON FEB 22 2010

.DISCUSSION...
IMPRESSIVE CLOUD DECK ACROSS THE AREA AND EXPECTING THIS TO HOLD
THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE ERODING FROM THE COAST
NORTH AND FROM THE WEST. HAVE PARED BACK THE AFTERNOON HIGHS AFTER
A COOL START IN THE 44-48 DEGREE RANGE. HIGHS SHOULD BE 53-55
NORTH AND 56-62 SOUTH AND THAT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE CLOUDS
ENDING 21Z AND LATER OVER THE AREAS SOUTH OF I-10.

AS FOR THE WINTER WEATHER EVENT TUESDAY HAVE NOT MADE ANY CHANGES
TO THAT PORTION OF THE PACKAGE. THE NAM 06Z AND 12Z RUNS HAVE
TRENDED 10-40 MILES FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE HEAVIER PRECIP/SNOW.
WILL BE WAITING FOR THE GFS BEFORE ANY CHANGES WILL BE MADE.

[txsnowmaker]

My two cents: the 12z GFS had a not-too-surprising hiccup, and our area will be back to an even snowier trend by tonight's 0z run.

[HouTXmetro]

[quote]HouTXmetro wrote:
Here is my uneducated assumption/question. Most of the recent Houston snow events peaked further south than predicted even up until the day of the event. For example, the December snow was suppose to be a big event for the Northern Burbs but the most significant snow occurred to the South like Pearland area. Is this a similar situation? Areas's to our North are under the gun but as the day progresses the threat shifts further south setting up Houston favorably?[/quote]

Well SRAIN, I called it...LOL

[wxman57]

I actually like the 12Z GFS prediction (below) better than the 06Z. I think the 06Z run had too much accumulation too far south:

[Rich]

HouTXmetro wrote:
Here is my uneducated assumption/question. Most of the recent Houston snow events peaked further south than predicted even up until the day of the event. For example, the December snow was suppose to be a big event for the Northern Burbs but the most significant snow occurred to the South like Pearland area. Is this a similar situation? Areas's to our North are under the gun but as the day progresses the threat shifts further south setting up Houston favorably?

Well SRAIN, I called it...LOL

I hear ya HouTXmetro, I have been saying that as well. It seems as areas south of I-10 are typically forecasted to get very little when in fact these areas have received farely substantial snow totals for Texas standards during the 2004 Christmas Eve Event 2008 Event and December 4, 2009 Event! Wouldn't not be suprised to see areas to our south pick up some accumulations from this storm!

[wxman57]

I am trying to decide whether to fly into Austin to catch the snow event. WXMAN57 or any others, does accumulating snow appear to be a lock or is there a danger that Austin gets dryslotted like it did during the December snow event? How many inches in north Austin, if any? Thanks in advance.

The one common area for highest precip appears to be in Comanche County or Stephens County. Brownwood or Comanche areas. That's the yellow bullseye on the map I posted above. The closer you get to that area, the greater the chance of very heavy snow. So I'd head north of Austin by 90 miles or so, and west of Waco.

[kayci]

I think I'll stay put right here in Galveston County, thank you.

[tireman4]

I think I'll stay put right here in Galveston County, thank you.

I thought you and Wxman57 were going to Tahiti!! LOL

[Portastorm]

I don't understand this. The 12z NAM graphic shows 2-3 inches for Austin. Then I see this AFD out of EWX.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1036 AM CST MON FEB 22 2010

.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED AFTERNOON TEMPS AND SKY COVER. HAVE ALSO LOWERED THE TOTAL
SNOW AMOUNTS FOR WINTER WEATHER EVENT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LATE THIS MORNING THE STRATUS DECK WAS ERODING TO THE EAST. THE
WEST TO EAST EROSION OF THE CLOUD DECK WILL OFFSET SOME OF THE CAA
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER LOOKING AT THE TEMPERATURE TRENDS...PREFER
THE COOLER GFS MOS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR CWFA FOR HIGHS
THIS AFTERNOON.

WE ARE SCALING BACK ON THE TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS FORECASTED ON TUESDAY
WITH THE NAM SNOW ACCUMULATION OUTPUT BEING PREFERRED OVER THE GFS
AND ECMWF. LOCAL CLIMATOLOGY ALSO SUGGESTS THE LOWER SNOW TOTALS
FCST BY THE NAM TO BE A BETTER FIT GIVEN THE SFC TEMPERATURES REMAINING
ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE RAIN/SNOW EVENT. HOWEVER WE WILL KEEP THE
CURRENT WINTER STORM WATCH CONFIGURATION ATTM. LLANO...BURNET AND
WILLIAMSON COUNTIES WILL LIKELY SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SHOW AND THESE
COUNTIES HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO BE UPGRADED TO A WINTER STORM WARNING.

[Rich]

Hey wxman57, I was looking at the wunderground interactive map and noticed alot of weather stations around Houston showing dew points in the low 40's currently with dew points in the upper 30's just north and west of town. I was wondering if this is right along forecast or a little lower than previously thought? I was also wondering if you thought the extra cloud cover today will help our chances in any way for those hoping for snow tomorrow...since the temps will be held down today and not have as far to fall?

[snowman65]

3 foot of snow with coastal flooding snow is why I'm disappointed at anything less than accumulating snow, especially since I've been spoiled by the snow miracles.

We even got mandao evac'd for 1876 and Hurricane Belle, although except for the weeping willow trees, many uprooted, and a couple of days w/o power, it wasn't all that impressive. Barely Cat 1, and weakening over the bitter cold waters off New York. Maybe not even a Cat 1 at landfall, although officially it was.


But I'm keeping my famous glass half full optimism.

Hurricane Belle was 1876???..Geez Ed, how OLD are you????....lol

[kayci]

I think I'll stay put right here in Galveston County, thank you.

I thought you and Wxman57 were going to Tahiti!! LOL

Don't know about wxman57, but I just don't have that kind of cash laying around...

[wxman57]

I think I'll stay put right here in Galveston County, thank you.

I thought you and Wxman57 were going to Tahiti!! LOL

Actually, that was supposed to be ticka1 going to Tahiti with me. But everyone's welcome!

[srainhoutx]

HPC thinking regarding the guidance so far...

...GRTBASIN/SWRN CONUS SHRTWV CROSSING THE SRN TIER...

PREFERENCE: GFS/NAM COMPROMISE

THE GFS BEGINS TO SHOW LESS WWD/SWWD ELONGATION OF THE TROF
COMPARED TO THE NAM BY MON NIGHT-TUE... AND THEN TRENDS FASTER
THAN THE NAM WITH THE TROF PROGRESSION. OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE IS
RATHER VARIED WITH EXACT SHRTWV DETAILS BY WED ONWARD. UKMET/CMC
RUNS SHOW GREATER NEWD SHEARING OF ENERGY THAN EITHER THE GFS OR
NAM BY WED WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF/EC MEAN SUPPORT THE NAM TIMING AND
OTHER ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS MIXED AS FAR AS TIMING. TRENDS WITH
THIS SHRTWV HAVE GENERALLY BEEN FASTER OVER RECENT DAYS AND THE
NAM IS NOT FAVORED WITH FLOW TO THE N AND W OF THE SHRTWV... SO
TIMING FASTER THAN THE NAM SEEMS REASONABLE. HOWEVER THE FACT
THAT THE 00Z ECMWF IS WITHIN THE PREFERRED CLUSTER FOR SURROUNDING
FLOW BUT IS STILL SLOW LIKE THE NAM WITH THE SHRTWV OF INTEREST
CAUSES HESITATION ABOUT GOING FOR A SOLN AS FAST AS THE GFS.
THEREFORE WILL OPT FOR A GFS/NAM COMPROMISE.

[redneckweather]

Are y'all trying to tell me that the possibility is there for an actual snow day at my house just south of Lake Conroe Dam? Am I reading this right? I really might have accumulating snow at my house? I missed the 2004 snow miracle, the December 2008 snow and only flakes during December of 2009. What's the propability of me getting some accumulating snow at the house? Please, entertain me!!