February Weather Discussion. Wild Winter Storms?

[Andrew]

yes, but not while precip is falling

I believe that it will be possible especially around the end of the event.

[srainhoutx]

You have been warned ProfMET. Consider it your last. ~Sigh~

[BigNorthSide]

is that you BITTERCOLD?

[Andrew]

I find it humorous how people can change their mind so fast on situations.

Bed time for me.. See you tomorrow. BTW I am calling 2 inches of accumulation for the Northern (outside the loop) Houston area. May not last long but it will be there.

[Andrew]

You have been warned ProfMET. Consider it your last. ~Sigh~

I'll be sure to let the moderator know about your "threats." Mind your own business please. Let's use this board to educate ourselves. Now back to my models...

Haha that is hilarious. Why don't you check his post again and look right below his name.

[C2G]

What topic are we on now, Ed?

[Andrew]

What topic are we on now, Ed?

Ed has given up for tomorrow and is now talking about the east coast system...

[Ptarmigan]

I have faith it will snow on Tuesday. I think it will be the wet snow.

[Andrew]

I have faith it will snow on Tuesday. I think it will be the wet snow.

I do too. I also think we will have accumulation

[srainhoutx]

IR Imagery tonight show some interesting features. A polar front is diving rapidly S through the Plains. To our W, our storm is slowly moving out of AZ into SW NM at this hour. The Upper Disturbance continues to move ESE to SE rather slowly...

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tropical/satpix ... 4_loop.php

[Paul]

I leave for a few hours and ED stirs up trouble....

no sense in looking at any model right now. As I have stated about 10 pages back. Tyler said it best. Its nowcasting. Maybe some of us will get some accumulations....We shall see....

[srainhoutx]

LCH Update...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1105 PM CST MON FEB 22 2010

.UPDATE...
QUITE A BUSY UPDATE...AS WE SEEM TO BE IN THE NEVER ENDING WINTER
OF SOUTHERN SNOWS!

LATEST GFS/NAM12 STILL SHOWS STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF ON
ELEVATED SURFACES OF 2 TO 2.5 INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN TYLER...JASPER
...NEWTON COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...AND NORTHERN VERNON...RAPIDES
...AND AVOYELLES PARISHES IN CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THUS...UPGRADED
THE WINTER STORM WATCH TO A WARNING (LOCAL CRITERIA IS ABOVE 2
INCHES WITHIN A 12 HOUR PERIOD). ALSO...ROAD CONDITIONS COULD
BECOME QUITE HAZARDOUS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AS THE LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH 30 DEGREES IN THIS AREA. FURTHER SOUTH...1-2
INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED NORTH OF US-190...AND 0.5-1.0 INCHES CAN BE
EXPECTED FROM I-10 TO US-190. THUS...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS
ISSUED FOR THIS REGION. THERE IS A BRIEF CHANCE AREAS BETWEEN I-10
AND US-190 COULD SEE SOME ICING ON ELEVATED ROAD SURFACES
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE TEMPERATURE APPROACHES 32 DEGREES BY
SUNRISE WED MORNING.

DUE TO CONTINUED CAA THIS EVENING...LOWERED TEMPS A COUPLE OF
DEGREES AREAWIDE...AND HIGHS TUES DUE TO THE ONSET OF PRECIP AND
EVAPORATIVE COOLING.

UPDATES ALREADY OUT.

[skidog38]

IGS model says alot

[BigNorthSide]

IR Imagery tonight show some interesting features. A polar front is diving rapidly S through the Plains. To our W, our storm is slowly moving out of AZ into SW NM at this hour. The Upper Disturbance continues to move ESE to SE rather slowly...

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tropical/satpix ... 4_loop.php

that polar front is really moving!! Is that the shot of colder air for us?

[wxdata]

GFSSnow0zFeb22[1].jpg

NAMsnow0zFeb22[1].jpg

[skidog38]

any snow that has fallen in the past in houston, models have been clueless

[TexasMetBlake]

Dew points are really dropping! Already freezing (dew point) at College Station, 36 at Conroe and 37 at Hooks. They continue to drop. That's good news.

[Andrew]

Dew points are really dropping! Already freezing (dew point) at College Station, 36 at Conroe and 37 at Hooks. They continue to drop. That's good news.

No one believed me.

[skidog38]

im going to say over 10"

[srainhoutx]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1148 PM CST MON FEB 22 2010

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...
COLD AIR ADVECTION FROM N TX IS DRAWING LOWER CIGS OF 1500-2500 FT
EARLY INTO CENTRAL TX WITH A MID LEVEL LAYER OF CIGS FORMING OVER
THE SAT AREA. LIGHT ELEVATED PRECIP TO THE NORTH WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO THE TAF SITES BY AROUND 09Z WITH CIGS AND
VSBYS SLOWLY DROPPING THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS. LIGHT RAIN
EARLY SHOULD CHANGE TO A RAIN-SNOW MIX SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK...
WITH ALL SNOW EXPECTED AT AUS BY LATE MORNING. PRECIP RATES SHOULD
BE MOSTLY LIGHT...BUT THE LOW CIGS AND PRECIP SHOULD COMBINE TO
REDUCE MOST VSBYS TO AROUND 2 MILES...MAYBE LESS. THE PRECIP AND
LOW CIGS SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR UP IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON AT DRT
AND SHIFT EAST TO THE I-35 TERMINALS LATE IN THE DAY. AS THE
CENTER OF THE DISTURBANCE PASSES ALOFT...A GENERAL NE WIND WILL
INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY AND BECOME MORE DUE NLY. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FOR THE EVENING...BUT SOME PATCHY FOG MAY
BE POSSIBLE FROM THE GROUND MOISTURE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1150 PM CST MON FEB 22 2010

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION SECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
WITH THE APPROACH AND ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER TROUGH FROM THE
WEST...AVIATION WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. WINTER
PRECIPITATION WILL OVERSPREAD WEST CENTRAL TEXAS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE SNOW ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY. FARTHER TO
THE SOUTH...A MIX OF RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW WILL AFFECT THE KSJT
AND KBBD TAF SITES SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH A TRANSITION TO
ALL SNOW BY 09Z-12Z TUESDAY. ALONG THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR...
LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT AT
KJCT AND KSOA...WITH THE PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW
BETWEEN 11Z AND 13Z TUESDAY. WITH THE INCREASING PRECIPITATION
AND A TRANSITION TO SNOW...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE INTO THE
IFR AND LIFR CATEGORIES AREAWIDE...FOR LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER A
LARGE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A DECREASE IN
CLOUD COVERAGE WITH CONSIDERABLY IMPROVING AVIATION CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED BY TUESDAY EVENING.