APRIL 2019: Warm & Muggy WX to End The Month

[DoctorMu]

Areas around College Station will need to be monitored over the next couple of hours for any spinups. Strongest low-level winds are exiting the region slowly but conditions currently remain favorable.

Message: NOAA-NWS-ALERTS-TX125CF1FDA434.SevereThunderstormWarning.125CF1FDBFF0TX.HGXSVRHGX.7d50e1692ba21c6f3e781fba48c62d86 from w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov
Sent: 17:29 CDT on 04-06-2019
Effective: 17:29 CDT on 04-06-2019
Expires: 18:00 CDT on 04-06-2019
Event: Severe Thunderstorm Warning
Alert:
The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
North central Brazos County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 600 PM CDT.

* At 529 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Wixon Valley,
or 11 miles north of Bryan, moving northeast at 25 mph.
HAZARD...Quarter size or larger hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Damage to vehicles is expected.

* This severe thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
north central Brazos County.
A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 600 PM CDT for southeastern
Texas.
HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...<50MPH

Big cell just north of Bryan. Some cells forming at the tail end of the line. Caldwell is under the gun.

Tornado Watch for the area expires in 25 minutes. There was a tornado detected on radar near Franklin less than an hour ago.

[Cpv17]

If the rain happens here across southeast Texas in the overnight and morning hours the severe threat should be limited and the really heavy rain threat would be limited to I would imagine.

[stormlover]

It’s going to happen

[Andrew]

Andrew- when will it end for the Beaumont area tomorrow ?

Showers will probably linger into Sunday afternoon

[Andrew]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 39
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
555 PM CDT Sat Apr 6 2019

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of
Northern Louisiana
Eastern Texas

* Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 555 PM until
1000 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
A couple tornadoes possible
Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible
Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

SUMMARY...Clusters of strong to severe storms should persist for a
few more hours this evening with all hazards possible.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 40 statute miles
either side of a line from 25 miles west of College Station TX to 70
miles northeast of Natchitoches LA. For a complete depiction of the
watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

[Andrew]

KCLL Special Sounding. Note it probably got taken out by lightning.

[Andrew]

One thing that is interesting to note is how there have been zero reported tornadoes so far. While that doesn't mean there weren't any tornadoes today, it does imply whatever did touchdown was most likely shortlived. This is common in situations where you have a very energetic environment (high CAPE) with limited shear. Low-level shear, in particular, was lackluster today for strong tornadoes and most were fortunate that was the case because there were several semi-discrete storms that had that "look". Just shows how important that 0-1km shear is when it comes to producing tornadoes.

[srainhoutx]

Saturday evening weather briefing from Jeff:

Severe Weather possible Sunday

As expected today…most of the activity has remained across central TX into our far northern counties where softball size hail was reported this evening in Houston County.

Stalled warm front has been the focus for repeated rounds of severe weather today from near San Marcos to north of Huntsville and activity continues to develop this evening although overall there is a slow weakening of the storms. Brief lull will be short lived as the next strong disturbance over NC MX is heading for SW TX and strong deep layer lift will begin to overspread an unstable air mass over the Rio Grande plains later this evening. Short range models show an explosion and then rapid evolution of a large thunderstorm complex over SW TX late this evening that roars ENE overnight across SC TX, the coastal bend, and SE TX by early Sunday morning. Model depiction of this complex looks like a large squall line with a large bowing segment or multiple bowing segments with potentially corridors of damaging winds. Air mass over the region overnight will favor severe weather with strong onshore low level flow helping to supply a steady feed of moisture. Capping that has kept much of the area south of HWY 105 dry today will be eroded rapidly with cooling aloft and strong lift overnight.

Thunderstorm complex should arrive into the SW/W sections of SE TX between 300-600am and then toward I-45 between 500-800am. Strong damaging winds will be possible with this line up to 60mph or even greater especially west of I-45. Will have to see how the initial line plows across the area and see where the outflow boundary will stall out on Sunday to determine if additional storms will be possible in the afternoon hours.

As for heavy rainfall, the lack of rainfall today over much of the area has maintained the dry soil parameters, and the recent model trends of a bowing thunderstorm complex generally points toward a brief bout of heavy rainfall with the main line. Still think 2-3 inches will be possible over much of the area, but dry soils should be able to handle. From College Station to Huntsville 1-2 inches of rain has fallen today and this area could see some flooding, but the activity on Sunday looks to focus more toward the south of this area…or across the area that has seen little rainfall today.

[srainhoutx]

Mesoscale Discussion 0272 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Sun Apr 07 2019 Areas affected...portions of southern TX Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 070600Z - 070730Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Large hail and damaging wind gusts will be possible overnight into the early morning hours across much of southern Texas as a cluster of storms in Mexico cross the Rio Grande and shift eastward. DISCUSSION...The severe threat will continue to increase overnight as a cluster of storms over the higher terrain of Mexico shifts east across parts of the Hill Country and points south. This convection is being forced by increasing ascent as the southern stream shortwave trough ejects over northern Mexico. The downstream environment is characterized by a very moist boundary layer with upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints beneath midlevel lapse rates around 8-8.5 C/km. This is resulting in MUCAPE values around 2000-3000 J/kg. Low level easterly flow through the lowest 1km or so is relatively weak, ranging from about 10-15 kt, but should increase slightly with time. A quasi-stationary front is draped across the region from northern Maverick County east/northeast into east-central TX. Hi-res guidance suggests convection will organize and travel roughly along and south of this boundary in the more pristine warm sector airmass. Given very steep midlevel lapse rates, hail will be likely in embedded stronger updrafts/supercells. Storm mode could temper a more significant hail threat, though some very large hail cannot be ruled out. While boundary layer inhibition is quite strong at this point, strong forcing should be sufficient to weaken low level inhibition sufficiently for some damaging wind threat as well. Convection will track eastward across much of southern TX through the overnight hours and a watch will be within the next hour or so. ..Leitman/Thompson.. 04/07/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO...

[Andrew]

Going to have to watch near Brenham. Thunderstorms are erupting along the warm front and that is most likely going to be the region that could see some flooding. If we don't see training ahead of the line currently southwest of San Antonio, flooding will be limited for others further south. Still, need to keep an eye on that over the next couple of hours for additional development and severe wx.

[Katdaddy]

An active weather day across SE TX so remain weather aware. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for SE TX including the Houston-Galveston areas until 3PM.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 41
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
710 AM CDT Sun Apr 7 2019
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southeast Texas and Coastal Waters
* Effective this Sunday morning and afternoon from 710 AM until
300 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...A maturing squall line across south central Texas will
develop east-northeastward through the day, with additional storm
development possible in advance of the line. The storm environment
will favor damaging winds and large hail as the primary threats with
the strongest embedded cells and bowing segments. A tornado or two
will also be possible with circulations embedded in the line, or
with cell interactions immediately in advance of the line.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 90
statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles west northwest
of Palacios TX to 50 miles east southeast of Huntsville TX. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

[unome]

so they moved GOES East Meso 2 off of TX

https://vlab.ncep.noaa.gov/web/goes-r-e ... mds-public
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/meso_index.php
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/

[srainhoutx]

As of now a bunch of us are stuck in S Padre Island due flight cancellations that began around 3:30 AM. Nasty squall line approaching Harlingen

[unome]

As of now a bunch of us are stuck in S Padre Island due flight cancellations that began around 3:30 AM. Nasty squall line approaching Harlingen

better to wait, we need you all back in 1 piece - stay safe everyone !

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/exper/lsr ... autoreload

https://twitter.com/iembot_bro
https://twitter.com/iembot_crp
https://twitter.com/iembot_ewx
https://twitter.com/iembot_hgx

[DoctorMu]

That’s one massive, messy all day meso.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

That’s one massive, messy all day meso.

I’m in Weimar taking care of our cattle before this blows in. I’m about to be right on the edge of the big line and it is DARK off to my West.

[stormlover]

Wonder if this will pass through in 30 mins and be sunshine afterwards ?

[mckinne63]

I've been watching the radar most of the morning, does not appear to be moving quickly. Getting a few sprinkles here in Stafford now.

[brooksgarner]

As of now a bunch of us are stuck in S Padre Island due flight cancellations that began around 3:30 AM. Nasty squall line approaching Harlingen

... and they laughed at me for driving ... There are far worse places to be stuck. (As long as you’re still on the island.)
It’s dry so far up here 13mi from Hobby as of 10:15am. Obviously that’s about to change.
It was great to see you guys!!

[srainhoutx]

As of now a bunch of us are stuck in S Padre Island due flight cancellations that began around 3:30 AM. Nasty squall line approaching Harlingen

... and they laughed at me for driving ... There are far worse places to be stuck. (As long as you’re still on the island.)
It’s dry so far up here 13mi from Hobby as of 10:15am. Obviously that’s about to change.
It was great to see you guys!!

Good visiting with you too Brooks. Bill Read is driving back now through this mess since our flight was cancelled. Most everyone still here are on the Island experiencing some CG and very chilly gales with the cold air behind the MCV.