March 2019: Strong Front/Rain Chance To End March

[Ptarmigan]

The 12Z European model suggested a snow potential late next week around the Metroplex. Now the CPC drops chilly air deep into Texas.

A cold March if forecast hold up.

[srainhoutx]

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a 15% chance of Severe Storms for Tuesday. This is the first West Texas Dryline severe threat of the year if I recall correctly. A squall line is expected to grow and may impact portions of our Region Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. We will continue to monitor the trends as the weekend progresses.

[jasons2k]

Woke up to 70F. Had a fantastic run. Ran twice as far as Tuesday. I swear my muscles and body are just looser in the warm weather.

[tireman4]

Woke up to 70F. Had a fantastic run. Ran twice as far as Tuesday. I swear my muscles and body are just looser in the warm weather.

Very good sir. How far did you run?

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 081201
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
601 AM CST Fri Mar 8 2019

.AVIATION...
Northern hub IFR decks with more southern terminals falling into
LIFR ceilings this morning. Cloud thickness and surface winds too
strong to allow any inland fog to form. Areas of sea fog are
still present but not locally dense. An approaching upper trough
will increase the late day into early Saturday chances for either
drizzle or light showers. Southelry winds in the 15 knot range
with a mid to late afternoon breakout to VFR. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CST Fri Mar 8 2019/

DISCUSSION...
Skies remain cloudy across Southeast Texas early this morning. Elevated
south winds are helping to keep temperatures from falling with 3 AM
readings in the mid to upper 60s inland and in the low to mid 60s at
the beaches. Some shower development can be expected today, and a round
of showers/thunderstorms will be possible tonight through tomorrow
morning. The greatest risk for any strong/severe storms is expected
to be off to our north and northeast as a storm system and associated
cold front moves across the Southern Plains. A more stable airmass
in place on Saturday night should keep much of the area dry, but look
for possible rain development again on Sunday with a front lingering
around. Rain chances will remain in the forecast for the next several
days as east to southeast winds strengthen and precipitable water
values rise while the next storm system organizes out west. This
system`s cold front looks to bring a round of showers/thunderstorms
across the area Tuesday night through Wednesday morning. This front
is currently expected to hold up across the area on Thursday resulting
in a continued chance of rain.

Above normal temperatures (especially overnight lows) can be expected
until the end of next week. 42

MARINE...
A persistent healthy onshore flow will occur through the day over
average to 3 to 4 foot significant (Gulf) wave heights / slight bay
chop. Periods of sea fog will be patchy at best with the greatest
chances for more areawide dense sea fog development on Saturday
night and lingering on into early next week. A northern storm system
passage late Saturday will weaken winds and swing them east by
Sunday night. These weaker easterlies will be conducive for the
formation of evening and overnight early morning dense fog over the
local bays and nearshore waters. Mid week southerlies are forecast
to strengthen to Advisory levels ahead of the next Plains storm
system. This system will pass off to the east by late Wednesday with
the arrival of a reinforcing cold front a week from now on Friday.
This front is anticipated to actually veer moderate to strong late
week winds offshore. These Caution/Advisory level northerlies will
continue well into next weekend. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 79 66 79 55 73 / 20 50 60 0 40
Houston (IAH) 77 67 79 62 75 / 40 30 40 10 30
Galveston (GLS) 69 64 69 63 69 / 40 20 20 10 20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for the following
zones: Coastal Jackson...Coastal Matagorda...Matagorda
Islands.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for the following
zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship
Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to
Freeport TX out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

&&

$$

Discussion...42
Aviation/Marine...31

[tireman4]

Seven Day Outlook

[jasons2k]

Woke up to 70F. Had a fantastic run. Ran twice as far as Tuesday. I swear my muscles and body are just looser in the warm weather.

Very good sir. How far did you run?

Thank you!
It was just short of 4 miles. Did two on Tuesday night. Slowly working my way back up after being sick and then all the cold, wet weather kept me indoors.

[CrashTestDummy]

Woke up to 70F. Had a fantastic run. Ran twice as far as Tuesday. I swear my muscles and body are just looser in the warm weather.

Yeah, the low today, so far was at midnight. 73.2 is the current high for the day.

[mckinne63]

Wool coat Monday and Tuesday, shorts today!

[Cpv17]

Next week is beginning to look dry per the 12z GFS.

[jasons2k]

Next week is beginning to look dry per the 12z GFS.

Hmm. I hope this isn’t setting a precedent for the rest of the Spring season. We were supposed to get some rain this weekend to wash this pollen away but that’s looking less and less likely.

Next week was supposed to be a sure thing.

[Cpv17]

Next week is beginning to look dry per the 12z GFS.

Hmm. I hope this isn’t setting a precedent for the rest of the Spring season. We were supposed to get some rain this weekend to wash this pollen away but that’s looking less and less likely.

Next week was supposed to be a sure thing.

Well the GFS has about .25”-.75” through next week for southeast Texas. The Euro has about .50”-1.50”. So it’s not completely dry, but still doesn’t look like a sure thing at least to me..especially for those south of 10.

[srainhoutx]

The afternoon Updated Climate Prediction Center Outlooks for Day 6 to 10, Day 8 to 14 and Weeks 3 to 4 suggest below normal temperatures may settle in later next and possibly persist into early April.

[jasons2k]

Well, at least for now, it’s nice. The basketball courts were full of kiddos playing pickup games, the park was full, and lots of walker/bikers out on the trails enjoying it.

My weather station is down, but the one down the road hit 84!!

This springtime weather is a wonderful thing!

[Cromagnum]

Good

[christinac2016]

Just saw the post about the late freeze next week. I was going to post about that. I saw channel 13 mention it next week. Ugh! I must say it was nice to wear tanks to walk yesterday.

[jasons2k]

Well, their posted forecast shows 44 next Sunday morning. I hope that's as cold as it gets.

Keeping an eye on the front the the NW but the cap is pretty strong.

[CrashTestDummy]

We _almost_ pulled the plants out of the greenhouse yesterday. I thought that since it was still a bit early in March we'd wait until at least next weekend to see what the next 10 days will give us.

Looks like some wet stuff is approaching our corner of the world. We had a flight on the Lone Star Flight Museum's B-25 scheduled for this afternoon. I hope we can still make it, but they won't fly in wet weather.

It hit 81 here today, but has already backed down to 78.

[Cpv17]

Well this is interesting. Darkest color we’ve had over us all winter.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Good. 30/40s to 50s/60s is a lot better than this humid crap we have going on today.